HEC competitor watch

[glenageary]

anyone got the saints game score now

[poolfan]

anyone got the saints game score now

7-15 Northampton up, 43mins gone.

[mikey]

My money is on getting Toulon - don't believe we can finish lower than 3rd

[tate]

20 - 7 to the saints. not a bad game either.

[Raydollard]

Looks like Toulon another one of those overrated, overpaid and superannuated French sides with a marshmallow centre. Should be a stroll in the park.

[HUDSOC]

So am I right in saying that any sort of a win for Northamption (pjust starting now) or Toulouse tomorrow will push us to either 2nd or 3rd (if both win), hence dodging Clermont (if Leiceter lose) or Leicster (as they should beat Treviso tomorrow)???

Who are the contenders for the 6th and 7th seeds, can't find a link to the updated seedings table on Sky at the moment?

We should either end up in third or fourth at the moment. In reality, it seems that we could either face Biarritz /Leicester/Perpignan (5th seeds) or Toulon (definite 6th seeds). But that's assumung that neither Toulouse or the Saints slip up tomorrow.

We can't be any lower than 3rd;only 2 sides yet to play or currently playing can better our 24 points.If Northampton beat Castres (2nd half now and they are 20-7 uo) it comes down to the Wasps v. Toulouse game tomorrow; Toulouse win and they end up no.1 seeds with Northampton 2nd and us 3rd - Toulouse lose and we are 2nd with Northampton top.

EDIT : my mistake,Toulouse are not necessarily no.1 seed if they beat Wasps - Northampton might still be but this won't affect us picking up either 2nd or 3rd place.

[mikey]

If we finish second we will get ulster

[tedotoole]

Not true. If Leicester or Perp get a bonus point, Ulster finish 8th

[tate]

as it stands we have ulster at home

[mikey]

Not true. If Leicester or Perp get a bonus point, Ulster finish 8th

Dam you and your clever maths!

I was so sure - I'll get my coat

[Donald]

Eeeek Would not want Leicester. I think we could manage Perpignon at home tho

[LeinsterLeader]

Eeeek Would not want Leicester. I think we could manage Perpignon at home tho

If anyone has it worked out could they print the 8 in their positions as it currently stands? Thanks

[Donald]

I am sure Brent will do the maths for us this eve on RTE

[meinster]

If anyone has it worked out could they print the 8 in their positions as it currently stands? Thanks

P1 Saints    25
P2 Leinster  24
P4 Biarritz  22
P6 Toulouse  21
P5 Perpignan 17 (18 tries vs 17 for Toulon)
P3 Toulon    17
P4 Ulster    22
P1 Clermont  19

So, aren't we looking at something like ...

P5 Leicester(+5) v Treviso
P5 Perpingnan(+4) v Scarlets
P6 Wasps (+4) v Toulouse (+1)
P6 Dragons v Glasgow (irrelevant)

P1 Saints    25
P2 Leinster  24
P5 Leicester 22 (To get BP, their try count will beat the currently equal Biarritz)
P4 Biarritz  22
P6 Toulouse  21
P3 Toulon    17
P4 Ulster    22
P5 Perpignan 21

If Perpingan get a bonus point, they'll switch places with Ulster.

So barring an upset (I don't expect Toulouse to beat Wasps at home; is that just nuts?) it'll be a home QF against Ulster, or Perpignan should the latter get a BP tomorrow. Is that right, or have I missed something?

[CiaranIrl]

If Toulouse win tomorrow, we play Toulon.

[HUDSOC]

I reckon we'll end up playing Toulon.
Tomorrow Perpingnan beat Scarletts + bonus point at same time Leicester (almost certainly) achieve the same result against Treviso.
Both Perp + Leic end up with 22 points but Perpignan top the pool (5) by virtue of their better back to back record (against Leicester).
Toulouse beat Wasps and only need to score more than 2 tries whereupon they end up no.1 seed with Northampton 2nd and Leinster 3rd.
Perpignan (as per the above predicted result v. Scarletts) are 4th by virtue of more tries scored than Biarritz who are 5th.Toulon 6th (the lowest place group winners) with Leicester 7th and Ulster 8th.
Hence Leinster (3rd) play Toulon. (6th)
If Toulouse lose to Wasps but get a losing bonus point so end up (group winners) with 22 points,the same as Perpignan( as per the predicted result above - or if Perpignan don't achieve that probably then Leicester) and Biarattz all on 22 points then it gets interesting.

Think now time to crack open that other bottle...

EDIT: Ciaran Irl is correct - If Toulouse beat Wasps we play Toulon no matter what happens in Perpignan+Leicesters' games.

[Donald]

Would rather a QF with Perpignon and then most definitely Ulster for an all irish affair over Toulon. I would be afraid of Toulon especially with the whole media build up that would be of Felipe returning etc etc. I always loved Phil and still do. Himself, Hickie, Gleeson and Shaggy always my fav players but still would not want Toulon.

[Dave Cahill]

especially with the whole media build up that would be of Felipe returning etc etc.

To be honest, I'd rather the media were focussed on a side issue like that rather than telling us how great we're playing at the moment. People can start believing the hype... c.f. Munster vs Leinster before the 2009 HEC semi-final

[Donald]

Fair point DC. I suppose keeping our guys out of the limelight and trying to keep the team and the fans feet on the ground would be a good team ahead of such a big contest. Overconfidence is a virus that can spread!

[paddyj]

especially with the whole media build up that would be of Felipe returning etc etc.

To be honest, I'd rather the media were focussed on a side issue like that rather than telling us how great we're playing at the moment. People can start believing the hype... c.f. Munster vs Leinster before the 2009 HEC semi-final

yeah, real risk here of losing the run of ourselves, nothing won in January, need to play down the hype and media profile (much as recent results are welcome)