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[Daithí Mac]

I was just thinking to myself the other day how Felipe would have fitted into our new style of play. I think he could have been good at 12, better than D'arcy though I'm not so sure of. I think Sexton at 10 is a key part of our play though, he is just so solid and his passing is excellent at the moment, really flinging it out a speed giving his outside backs/ SOB some extra time to round their men.

[Amz]

Over confidence, at this point in the season. is dangerous. We've no idea what kind of team we'll have even for the quarter final, we could have a rake of injuries during the 6nations, which would give the squad a very different look.

I'd very much like to err on the side of caution.

[johng]

If anyone has it worked out could they print the 8 in their positions as it currently stands? Thanks

P1 Saints    25
P2 Leinster  24
P4 Biarritz  22
P6 Toulouse  21
P5 Perpignan 17 (18 tries vs 17 for Toulon)
P3 Toulon    17
P4 Ulster    22
P1 Clermont  19

So, aren't we looking at something like ...

P5 Leicester(+5) v Treviso
P5 Perpingnan(+4) v Scarlets
P6 Wasps (+4) v Toulouse (+1)
P6 Dragons v Glasgow (irrelevant)

P1 Saints    25
P2 Leinster  24
P5 Leicester 22 (To get BP, their try count will beat the currently equal Biarritz)
P4 Biarritz  22
P6 Toulouse  21  22 with the losing bp you are giving them
P3 Toulon    17
P4 Ulster    22
P5 Perpignan 21

If Perpingan get a bonus point, they'll switch places with Ulster.They would switch with Leicester and go ahead of Toulouse and Biarritz for a home QF (If Toulouse do what you reckon they will)

So barring an upset (I don't expect Toulouse to beat Wasps at home; is that just nuts?) it'll be a home QF against Ulster, or Perpignan should the latter get a BP tomorrow. Is that right, or have I missed something?

Missed a couple of things. Surprisingly for you.

I reckon Toulouse will win. Nothing in it for Wasps. They are in the Amlin anyway. Even a BP win for Wasps won't put them in the HC (unless the Scarlets win in France with no BP)

I predict Leicester to get 5 points. Perpignan to get 4 and Toulouse to win.

That means we get Toulon.

2 qfs in England, one in Ireland and one in France.

The only way we can get Ulster is if Perpignan AND Toulouse lose. Or Perpignan win with no BP And Toulouse lose

It is completely impossible for us to get Perpignan no matter what happens.

So Toulon or Ulster it is. Outside chance of Leicester if Perpignan AND Leicester get BP win. (actually that could very well happen) Edit: Toulouse would also have to lose

I would not fear Leicester in LR. It would put a dangerous team out early too. (obviously prefer one of the others though, and let Toulouse meet Leicester in the semi )

[HUDSOC]

Personally would prefer Toulon over all the other potential QF opponents so in that respect am hoping for a Tououse win over Wasps this afternoon but should Wasps turn over Touoluse it's nice to know Toulouse are then likely consigned to an away QF (even if they lose with a bonus point they would still need to up their try count to knock Biarritz off 4th spot - and it's most unlikely at least one of Perpignan or Leicester don't get max points in their games).

[johng]

Will be Leicester now unless Toulouse win. (Assuming Perpignan score 1 more try)

Come on Toulouse...

[johng]

Toulouse go into the Wasps game knowing that if they lose they are away to Biarritz.
unless they score more than 2 Tries and get a Losing BP. Then they are away to Perpignan.
Draw or 2 Bonus points and they are at home to Toulon.
Any win puts them home to Leicester.
BP win puts them home to Ulster.

From a Leinster pov. They win we get Toulon. They lose we get Leicester.

[AidanSloan]

Will be Leicester now unless Toulouse win. (Assuming Perpignan score 1 more try)

Come on Toulouse...

As much as I'd love to repay Leicester for the 1/4 defeat a few years ago I think I'd rather avoid them. So I agree, come on Toulouse.....

[sid]

But if we beat Toulon are we likely to get Leicester away in a semi? I'd rather have Leicester at home where I think we'd have a much better chance of beating them.

[ceemec]

Semi finals are drawn after the last pool game, Sid, and are based on nothing but chance.

So we've either Toulon or Leicester at home I believe. After that, lets pray we've a home semi final. If that turns out to be the case, I believe we can go to Cardiff.

Going through Leicester's results to date and I think we should have the beating of them at home:
http://www.espnscrum.com/heineken-cup-2 ... te=results

If anyone's interested here are Toulon's:
http://www.espnscrum.com/heineken-cup-2 ... te=results

Click on links for match details and stats.

[nopeare]

But if we beat Toulon are we likely to get Leicester away in a semi? I'd rather have Leicester at home where I think we'd have a much better chance of beating them.

No its a draw i made the same mistake thinking it went on the positioning but its pot luck with a draw to see who we get http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/live_draw.php

[AidanSloan]

But if we beat Toulon are we likely to get Leicester away in a semi? I'd rather have Leicester at home where I think we'd have a much better chance of beating them.

No its a draw i made the same mistake thinking it went on the positioning but its pot luck with a draw to see who we get http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/live_draw.php

Ye' totally "open", Serge Blanco has no influence. Biarritz just get really lucky every time

[sid]

Hmm, in that case I'm torn between wanting Leicester and Toulon for the QF then. If we get Leicester, chances are we'll knock out a tough team when we have a definite home advantage. If we get Toulon, we're more certain of winning but we could end up with the tougher away draw for the semi.

[HUDSOC]

The Sky panel main presenter has just said the draw for the semi-finals will be at around 5.00 PM today (as opposed to previous suggestion 5.30 PM) - doubtless this might change again but best to be pre-warned...

[Scrumdog]

Think I would like Wasps to win. That would increase the chances of Toulouse AND Leicester going out at quater final stage and thus avoiding two very hard away semis.

[sid]

Doesn't look like it's going to happen judging on their scrum combined with the tackling that led to the first try.

[ceemec]

Looks like we could be welcoming Phil home. Would be great to have him back and for him to play in front of us one last time. That is, if PSA decides to select him.

[Scrumdog]

Maybe we could him back in the semi instead.

[fourthirtythree]

At the moment looks like Leicester.

[sid]

Surprising turnaround. If we can score that easily if/when we have to play them I'll be pretty happy

[HUDSOC]

Despite Toulouse being currently down 13-7 to Wasps I don't see Wasps holding on and believe Toulouse power will prevail in the second half so we will get Toulon afterall.That said I fear that semi-final draw : Leinster/Toulon pairing out of the hat second to Toulouse's pairing so remain torn.And we thought all the hard work was done on friday evening ? The 'beauty' of the H cup I suppose.