Permutations & Combinations

[Exley]

Straw clutching time here.

Let's assume for some reason we start scoring tries again and get 10 points (not likely, I know) - what hope have we?

Here's where it stands for those still in contention and some quick thoughts beside each group:

Pool 1: Sarries 14, Racing 12, Munster 11 - I would expect Munster to beat Racing at home and Edinburgh away. Possibly with a bonus in Edinburgh but probably not at home to Racing. More likely for them to be on 20pts than 21pts.

Pool 2: Leicster 14, Toulose 13, Ospreys 9 - Toulouse and Leicster still to play each other. Tough to see either second place team being on more than 20.

Pool 3: Quins 19, Biaritz 9 - Definitely not going to get a second team through here

Pool 4: Ulster 15, Castres 12, Northampton 10 - Expect Northampton to beat Castres at home, maybe with bonus, but can't see them getting 5 from Glasgow away. That would leave them on 19

Pool 6: Toulon 18, Montpellier 13 - Last game is Montpellier at home to Toulon, they have Sale away before then. You'd have to fancy 2 teams coming from this group, given the drek Sale and Cardiff have served up so far

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I reckon Northampton will get the 5 points against Glasgow if they need it.

So for my money, Munster, ourselves and Northampton will end up on 20 points with Montpellier being a big unknown.

We're already 3 tries behind Munster and Northampton, just can't see it happening for us.

[suisse]

Love predictions. Never get it right.

Pool 1: Sarries to see it out. Munster to get 2 4-match point wins.
Saracens 23, Munster 19

Pool 2: Really tight. All comes down to what happens in Welford Road in round 6. They'll both be on 18 going into that game, a straight shoot-out. I think Leicester will win it, leaving Toulouse on 19 with a LBP.
Leicester 22, Toulouse 19

Pool 3: Quins to win their final 2 games, incl the one in France.
Quins 27, Biarritz 15

Pool 4: Ulster to get 9 from their next 2, but 8 will be enough. I fancy Glasgow to beat Northants who will beat Castres.
Ulster 25, Northants 15, Castres 14

Pool 5: Clermont top seeds with 27 or 28, Leinster 9 points from 10.
Clermont 27/28, Leinster 19

Pool 6: Montpellier have a glorious opportunity to progress. 13 points with Sale away and Toulon at home. reckon they'll win both with a TBP. Toulon on 23 or 24.
Toulon 23, Mont. 21

Clermont v Toulouse (by virtue of tries scored)
Quins v Montpellier
Ulster v Leicester
Toulon v Saracens

[Degz]

I don't think a bp win in Exeter is beyond the realms, considering we should have our first choice backline back in stead by then.

Whether 20 would be enough is a different matter.

[johng]

I don't think Leicester are great this year. They could lose both games. If they lose the Os game, they would be on 14 or 15 going into Round 6 with toulouse on 18. Meaning Toulouse would only need anLbp to top the group.

[rosscarrick]

This will be my most read thread till January.... Love it.

[suisse]

I don't think Leicester are great this year. They could lose both games. If they lose the Os game, they would be on 14 or 15 going into Round 6 with toulouse on 18. Meaning Toulouse would only need anLbp to top the group.

Sadly, don't think Toulouse are very good anymore either. Losing to Quins, Glaws and O's in recent years. Leicester in WR is always a whore of a journey. clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap Tigers

[LeRouxIsPHat]

There's just so many permutations...I haven't ruled out the prospect of Leicester and Toulouse drawing and both ending up on 20 points as well!

[Blue Voodoo]

Despite all the negative stuff - and I am as gutted as anybody after Sat - we are still in the competition

If the team had caved and given up against Clermont in the last couple of minutes we would not have earned a bonus point

It is an outside possibility but we can still earn a maximum of 10 points from the remaining matches - how many genuinely felt confident at half time against Northampton ? Be honest

Very premature to be giving up at this stage lets support the team

[neiliog93]

Obviously it's very difficult to speculate at this point, and indeed my own predictions have changed over the last 24 hours, but this is my take at the moment (possibly over-optimistic):

Pool 1: Saracens have shown enough to win away to Metro (as Munster should've done), and bury Edinburgh at home. Munster to get at least one bonus point in their remaining two games vs Racing at home and Edinburgh away:

Saracens 23, Munster 20, Racing 13, Edinburgh 0

Pool 2: By their standards, Leicester have been terrible this year. While Toulouse have declined too, they have enough in the tank to beat Leicester at Welford Road. Leicester to take a losing bonus point in this match, as well as losing with a bonus away to a resurgent Ospreys (who'll finish on 18 with a non-bonus point win at home to Leicester and a bonus vs Treviso. Thankfully, it's too little too late for them).....so:

Toulouse 22, Ospreys 18, Leicester 16, Treviso 1

Pool 3: Not that Biarritz have a major chance anyway, but Quins are easily good enough to beat a team in disarray, even in the Basque country, possibly with a bonus point. No threats from this group for Leinster:

Quins 29, Biarritz 14, Connacht 13, Zebre 0

Pool 4: Ulster have enough class to beat Castres in France, especially with the kick up the hole they got last week. Thankfully, Castres are still very much in contention going into Round 5 so are unlikely to capitulate/not try away to Northampton. However, it's still hard to see Northampton getting any less than two wins from their last two games, although Glasgow isn't an easy place to go. They could lose away to Glasgow, but relying on a big Castres effort in England, I'll give Northampton 8 points in those games. Ulster to comfortably beat Glasgow at home:

Ulster 24, Northampton 18, Castres 13, Glasgow 3

Pool 5: Clermont to run away with it against a gallant but outclassed Exeter in France, and against a disheartened Scarlets in Llanelli. Leinster to get a bonus point win vs Scarlets, but winning with four tries in Sandy Park is a tougher assignment. Leinster seem to need 20 points, but 19 could enough. I'll be a bit pessimistic here and give Leinster 19 points.

Clermont 28, Leinster 19, Exeter 10, Scarlets 2

Pool 6: Probably the hardest pool to predict due to the temperament of the teams involved. Montpellier played a weakened team at home to Cardiff, but because of Cardiff's being utter dross, still won. However, it still shows their decidedly dilletante attitude towards the tournament. Toulon look excellent and will want a home 1/4 final. Let's hope that means they take their away assignment in Montpellier seriously. Montpellier to lose at home to Toulon without garnering a losing bonus, and I also have a feeling they'll lose away to Sale (as bad as Sale have been). However, in order to balance my optimism, I'll go against my feelings and give Montpellier a win there (and even a losing bonus point at home to Toulon).That means they're still only on 18. Cardiff to beat Sale at home (just about) in a meaningless dead-rubber. So:

Toulon 27, Montpellier 18, Sale 6, Cardiff 5


So, that means the following 1/4 final line-up:

Quins (1) vs Leinster (8) (Although I've also had a real feeling that Leinster could meet Clermont away again, and it's certainly eminently possible)
Clermont (2) vs Munster (7)
Toulon (3) vs Toulouse (6)
Ulster (4) vs Saracens (5)

[Blue not red blood]

Lets get a win, hopefully with a bonus v Llanelli first.
Then its all to play for.
A few turns yet I reckon and it will come down to the 3pm Sunday matches.
The last weekend fixture times scheduling could be sitnificant.
Dont think we will get that koe as we are outsiders to be in contention.

[CiaranIrl]

Pool 1
Saracens 14 (9)
Racing 12 (4)
Munster 11 (7)
Edinburgh 0 (0)

Edinburgh vs Munster
Racing vs Saracens

Munster vs Racing
Saracens vs Edinburgh

Potential outcome: Saracens - could easily lose away in France and win at home without 4 tries. They are cr@p, after all. I think Munster still have a decent chance to win this pool. Also, if Racing beat Saracens at home, they'll send their best team to Limerick.

Prediction: Munster to win the group and qualify with 20 points. Saracens to finish on 19 points.

Pool 2
Leicester 14 (11)
Toulouse 13 (9)
Ospreys 9 (8)
Treviso 1 (6)

Ospreys vs Leicester
Toulouse vs Treviso

Treviso vs Ospreys
Leicester vs Toulouse

Potential outcome: I think people are over-rating Ospreys based on one good performance in Europe this year. They are perennial bottlers at this stage. People are finding it easy to say that Leicester don't look great this year, but somehow we'll hit top gear. Who is to say that they haven't started slow too? Leicester have a habit of going on a bit of a run post Christmas. I think Leicester will win away against the Hairsprays, and Toulouse will rout Treviso, leaving both on 18 going into the final game in Welford road. That will be a tough game to call.

Prediction: Leicester to edge a brutal game in Welford road and win the group on 22, and Toulouse to finish on 19 points.

Pool 3
Harlequins 19 (21)
Biarritz 9 (8)
Connacht 8 (3)
Zebre 0 (5)

Harlequins vs Connacht
Zebre vs Biarritz

Connacht vs Zebre
Biarritz vs Harlequins

Potential outcome/Prediction: Quinns to run away with the group and finish as the second seed with 27 points.

Pool 4
Ulster 15 (9)
Castres 12 (5)
N Saints 10 (6)
Glasgow 2 (4)

N Saints vs Castres
Ulster vs Glasgow

Castres vs Ulster
Glasgow vs N Saints

Potential outcome: Ulster will beat Glasgow and Saints will beat Castre, putting Castre out before the final weekend. Ulster will win away on the final weekend because of that. Saints are more likely than we are to finish on 19/20 based on the opposition they face.

Ulster to finish with 23 points and win the group, Saints to finish second on 19.

Pool 5
Clermont 18 (10)
Leinster 10 (3)
Exeter 9 (4)
Scarlets 2 (5)

Clermont vs Exeter
Leinster vs Scarlets

Exeter vs Leinster
Scarlets vs Clermont

Potential result/Prediction: Clermont to finish as top seeds with two more wins and 28 points. I'd say we'll get 9 more points leaving us on 19.

Pool 6
Toulon 18 (16)
Montpellier 13 (11)
Sale Sharks 4 (5)
Cardiff Blues 1 (4)

Toulon vs Cardiff Blues
Sale Sharks vs Montpellier

Montpellier vs Toulon
Cardiff Blues vs Sale Sharks

Montpellier to get two wins, Toulon to pick up 5 points against Cardiff and a LBP away against Montpellier. Toulon win the group with 24, Montpellier finish with 21.

That leaves us with:

Clermont
Quinns
Toulon
Ulster
Leicester
Munster
Montpellier
Toulouse

However, if we can actually get 10 points in the last two games by some miracle, I think we will go through as 8th seeds.

[Mackman15]

Maybe I've been at the sherry again but I truly believe that we can pull this out of the fire.
I firmly believe that we can do it. First step is more injuries being resolved in the coming weeks and then down to business against Scarlets.

There have been occasions where they have come to Dublin and been pitiful.
The opportunity stands to get tries back in the right colum and get things moving.

I just know we we can do this.
Joe's finest hour awaits.

[AdamK]

Yeh, it's not good enough beating Munster infront of 80k mad rugby fans when we were clearly the underdog. It's not good enough that we beat the English super power of rugby without our first choice pivot to claim our first cup. It's not good enough that we fall into the pool with Clermont, Racing Metro and come out on top, only to dispatch Leceister and French giants Toulouse on our way to the final. It's not enough that we find ourselves badly beaten in the first half of said final only to come back and claim our second cup against all odds. It's not enough that from then on we decide never to lose another game in the H-Cup and storm Europe to take our third cup without losing a game.

No, it's not enough, so now we just like to put ourselves in extremely difficult positions on purpose, just to make it even for the rest of them.

[Apocrypha]

Yeh, it's not good enough beating Munster infront of 80k mad rugby fans when we were clearly the underdog. It's not good enough that we beat the English super power of rugby without our first choice pivot to claim our first cup. It's not good enough that we fall into the pool with Clermont, Racing Metro and come out on top, only to dispatch Leceister and French giants Toulouse on our way to the final. It's not enough that we find ourselves badly beaten in the first half of said final only to come back and claim our second cup against all odds. It's not enough that from then on we decide never to lose another game in the H-Cup and storm Europe to take our third cup without losing a game.

No, it's not enough, so now we just like to put ourselves in extremely difficult positions on purpose, just to make it even for the rest of them.

Wrong.

It's not good enough that 45k bandwagoners got shouted down by 5k Clermont fans. Maybe ye should go down the Saffracens route and start piping out Dublin GAA songs and canned claping/shouting.

[desperado]

God you're a bitter one. Can't spell for sh1t either.

[Icarus]

Yeh, it's not good enough beating Munster infront of 80k mad rugby fans when we were clearly the underdog. It's not good enough that we beat the English super power of rugby without our first choice pivot to claim our first cup. It's not good enough that we fall into the pool with Clermont, Racing Metro and come out on top, only to dispatch Leceister and French giants Toulouse on our way to the final. It's not enough that we find ourselves badly beaten in the first half of said final only to come back and claim our second cup against all odds. It's not enough that from then on we decide never to lose another game in the H-Cup and storm Europe to take our third cup without losing a game.

No, it's not enough, so now we just like to put ourselves in extremely difficult positions on purpose, just to make it even for the rest of them.

Amen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC4JZuJEElg

[Mackman15]

I'm guessing its going to be tough to find anyone that agrees with me....



"People have written us off now. We've been beaten by Clermont and are in a poor position to get through," said McFadden. "But it's still possible. And if we qualify from this group it will be one of our greatest achievements.

[suisse]

I'm guessing its going to be tough to find anyone that agrees with me....



"People have written us off now. We've been beaten by Clermont and are in a poor position to get through," said McFadden. "But it's still possible. And if we qualify from this group it will be one of our greatest achievements.

I would give Leinster a less than 10% chance of getting out of the group. I don't think we'll score 4 tries in Sandy Park, and I wouldn't even throw a lot on us doing so against Llanelli. We're just not playing that well this year. It happens.

[AdamK]

Yeh, it's not good enough beating Munster infront of 80k mad rugby fans when we were clearly the underdog. It's not good enough that we beat the English super power of rugby without our first choice pivot to claim our first cup. It's not good enough that we fall into the pool with Clermont, Racing Metro and come out on top, only to dispatch Leceister and French giants Toulouse on our way to the final. It's not enough that we find ourselves badly beaten in the first half of said final only to come back and claim our second cup against all odds. It's not enough that from then on we decide never to lose another game in the H-Cup and storm Europe to take our third cup without losing a game.

No, it's not enough, so now we just like to put ourselves in extremely difficult positions on purpose, just to make it even for the rest of them.

Wrong.

It's not good enough that 45k bandwagoners got shouted down by 5k Clermont fans. Maybe ye should go down the Saffracens route and start piping out Dublin GAA songs and canned claping/shouting.

What's that got to the do with the price of sugar? Sure we may as well talk about it not being good enough that Munster can't get within an ass's hair of winning the anything these days, and that they still insist on playing on a shite outhalf.