Leinster v Salarysins

[Dexter]

No way leinster would have made that many mistakes in key parts of the game

That may be true but I think the concern in these parts is that (a) the team playing the Premiership these days is not the team we will be playing and between now and then they will give nothing away for our video analysis and (b) the only thing their coaching and analysis teams are working on is us - and they are getting information.

This nervousness is only going to get worse between now and then

Yeah the b$&%@#ds are gearing up for one game and one game only!

[OTT]

All old news and talked about here. I think the story at the time was Jack was contracted till post World Cup 2019 so November 2019. He was on a central contract and thus renegotiated with the IRFU and not Leinster and that got him a new two year central to join Ulster. From Jack's perspective he obviously would be better financially secured by going to Ulster on a central rather then renewing with Leinster on a provincial which seems to have been the alternative option that was available at the time. I think that is what pisses some of us off, that a front line player like Jack, selected in the national squad for both 2018 Autumn International series and 2019 Six Nations so the two immediate squads before his Leinster exit was announced at the start of April 2019. With a serious impressive back catalologue, a haul of silverware for club and country and a test Lion in 2017 and still only aged 29, by no means old for a prop was being shepherded to Ulster by means of a central contract which Leinster more or less could not compete against/with.

That is not how Irish Rugby has ever worked (before JC) and it is a worry as a fan especially at the minute as a Leinster fan that this will become the new normal. Certainly players have moved and teams had been weakened by their moves eg Jordi leaving Leinster or Henshaw leaving Connacht but in both cases the player could have stayed at their province and renewed without being financially disadvantaged. Jordi could have got the same provincial contract from Leinster as he was offered at Ulster, the central contract being offered to Henshaw was not dependent on him playing for a specific province. I suppose as a Leinster fan until I see a player forced into joining us I will think the current mutation of the Provincial merry go round where by players are encouraged to leave Leinster for somewhere else is a bad thing and unfair.

If we look at the hypothesis that Jack left because of his Leinster status and unhappiness (think hugo intimated this, apologies if I misunderstood) within the environment I don't know if that holds true. Last season he was definitely playing worse then we had come to expect but he still started eight games and subbed in four more for 499 minutes of game time. What probably had the biggest effect on him was his diminishing Irish game time last season because he was not playing well but was still in all the squad's. This resulted in him missing two Leinster games in November that both Dooley and Ed Byrne shared one start and one sub appearance a piece and two matches during the 6 nations at a time Jack saw very little rugby with again Dooley and Byrne sharing one start and a sub appearance each for Leinster. So the lads at Leinster were propelling their own fortunes while Jack's inclusion in the Irish squad was a great benchmark for him but the lack of game time was hampering his ability to play his way back into form, when he was available to Leinster his battle was with Healy for game time as well as the other boys. It was bad for Jack short term but a guy of his ability would back himself (imo) to come back and chase down Healy as starting loosehead. Even after Jack announced he was leaving Leinster he was still selected to bench against Sarries in the final last year, that would hardly happen if a player was so unhappy at the province and wanted out so bad (again just my opinion).

Look at this season Dooley has come from 4th in the pecking last term (4 starts 10 subs all in the league for 453 minutes) over taken Ed Byrne (6 starts and 16 subs including benching for Pro 14 final for 677 minutes) to be the guy who we presume will start the quarter final against Saracens if Healy does not make it back. Could that not have been Jack if Leinster could have been able to make him an offer that was not worse then the one Ulster/IRFU made him? I think it could have been.Jack was a great player for us, he was always someone who came across with great humility, I think besides the odd snide remark that people on here made but did not really mean we will all remember him extremely fondly and the gripe we may have or at least I do is that it appears that players are getting incentivised to leave Leinster which obviously as someone clearly not impartial it grates with me, the grumblings that come out of Leinster Rugby when these transfers happen would support this view.

What a f%~king tangent ...back to where it all began I would agree that Dooley has earned the start if Cian is not fit I would prefer that then moving Porter or Bent over and yeah it would be a lot easier if Jack was still here

[JB1973]

Ronk:

"Rewarding players who move can affect the morale of players who weren’t asked to move or said no. I think it also damaged Irish squad cohesion."

Of the latter point I am absolutely convinced. Glad to see I'm not the only one.

How so? I'd say Joey is the only one relevant to that and he's been injured anyway.

I'm a big believer in everything Hugo said about the environment making all Leinster players better but not sure how cohesion comes into it.

For me it's about getting the balance right of where and why players are asked to move and we need to learn lessons from what's happened so far. I think there's merit in some players leaving but hate Nucifora's apparent vision of just treating Irish rugby like a seating plan for a wedding.

Slight tangent but I'm also getting uncomfortable with the Ireland team being so reliant on Leinster. For all the talk of Ireland v England essentially being Leinster v Saracens, the England team has far more diversity in the team. From the game last week the back row and half backs came from other clubs. Yes we play a different style to Leinster but my problem with that is that we aren't particularly tested week to week but also still worry about bigger packs in certain games, so for the guts of our team to have to raise their game at international level is a big ask. I don't have a solution to this btw, but my point is just that you'd like for the slight deficiencies in Leinster's team to be compensated for elsewhere (a physical 7 or Murray in top form for example) but when that's not there we can't really expect Leinster's dominance to translate to international level.

That is the huge advantage England have over the celtic nations , they have 12 professional sides to pick from all playing in a tough competitive league

They will pick the bulk of their side from the best domestic teams but they have a lot more players to plug any gaps. The laws of averages suggests the more players you have the more physical players you will have
Plus they just seem to produce bigger people in general which given the nature of rugby is always a plus

I think the IRFU have very smart with the use of project players to fill in some of the gaps but your right to point out that in the games they have lost in recent years at test level (japan and nz in world cup aside). Ireland have tended to be out muscled rather than out skilled.

I can't recall anyone dominating leinster in such a fashion over recent years though even in the erc final last year you were not blown away physically , any games spring to mind?

[cormac]

I thought we were out-muscled in the second half of the final last year. Saracens were able to get over the gain line more easily than we did. Don't recall it being an issue in the QF the year before so hopefully we'll be able to correct this time around.

[MylesNaGapoleen]

I thought we were out-muscled in the second half of the final last year. Saracens were able to get over the gain line more easily than we did. Don't recall it being an issue in the QF the year before so hopefully we'll be able to correct this time around.

agree completely. vinupola should have been motm in 2018 quarters but he was one of the only players up for it. we had leavy in 2018 and I think we (and ireland) have missed him badly. his workrate is unreal. I remember berger smacking leavy full on with his head, disguised as a clear out, in a ruck in the 2nd half...leavy just looked back at him as if to say "is that all you got?".
Home advantage does make a difference and I think teh stars are aligning for us with this game. Don't think Billy V will be back for it which is a big loss to them and the pressure on them must be huge..nothing else to play for.

[arsebiscuits1]

I thought we were out-muscled in the second half of the final last year. Saracens were able to get over the gain line more easily than we did. Don't recall it being an issue in the QF the year before so hopefully we'll be able to correct this time around.

We also had 2-3 entries into their 22 with absolutely 0 points. Whereas in 2018 we converted pretty much every chance we got. That was the biggest difference for me really.

[bronxbull]

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ ... 10159.html

Mako in self isolation.

[bluemagic]

Will Skelton signing for La Rochelle. Unclear if it’s next season or immediate.

[wixfjord]

Will Skelton signing for La Rochelle. Unclear if it’s next season or immediate.

I saw that as well, pretty sure my broken French told me it was from next season.

[Flash Gordon]

I thought we were out-muscled in the second half of the final last year. Saracens were able to get over the gain line more easily than we did. Don't recall it being an issue in the QF the year before so hopefully we'll be able to correct this time around.

We also had 2-3 entries into their 22 with absolutely 0 points. Whereas in 2018 we converted pretty much every chance we got. That was the biggest difference for me really.

Yeah in a final, the margins are that fine. Luke's kick before half time and Ringrose not converting the overlap. That's a 10-14 point swing.

[Oldschool]

I thought we were out-muscled in the second half of the final last year. Saracens were able to get over the gain line more easily than we did. Don't recall it being an issue in the QF the year before so hopefully we'll be able to correct this time around.

agree completely. vinupola should have been motm in 2018 quarters but he was one of the only players up for it. we had leavy in 2018 and I think we (and ireland) have missed him badly. his workrate is unreal. I remember berger smacking leavy full on with his head, disguised as a clear out, in a ruck in the 2nd half...leavy just looked back at him as if to say "is that all you got?".
Home advantage does make a difference and I think teh stars are aligning for us with this game. Don't think Billy V will be back for it which is a big loss to them and the pressure on them must be huge..nothing else to play for.

Sexton certainly won't mind if BV isn't able to play.

[hugonaut]

I thought we were out-muscled in the second half of the final last year. Saracens were able to get over the gain line more easily than we did. Don't recall it being an issue in the QF the year before so hopefully we'll be able to correct this time around.

Their unheralded centre partnership [Barritt & Lozowski] dominated our very heralded one [Henshaw & Ringrose] as well. 103m gained off 28 carries [3.67m/carry] vs 66m off 29 carries [2.28m/carry] on offence, 42 tackles made/3 missed vs 20 made/4 missed on defence.

[ronk]

Ronk:

"Rewarding players who move can affect the morale of players who weren’t asked to move or said no. I think it also damaged Irish squad cohesion."

Of the latter point I am absolutely convinced. Glad to see I'm not the only one.

How so? I'd say Joey is the only one relevant to that and he's been injured anyway.

I'm a big believer in everything Hugo said about the environment making all Leinster players better but not sure how cohesion comes into it.

For me it's about getting the balance right of where and why players are asked to move and we need to learn lessons from what's happened so far. I think there's merit in some players leaving but hate Nucifora's apparent vision of just treating Irish rugby like a seating plan for a wedding.

Slight tangent but I'm also getting uncomfortable with the Ireland team being so reliant on Leinster. For all the talk of Ireland v England essentially being Leinster v Saracens, the England team has far more diversity in the team. From the game last week the back row and half backs came from other clubs. Yes we play a different style to Leinster but my problem with that is that we aren't particularly tested week to week but also still worry about bigger packs in certain games, so for the guts of our team to have to raise their game at international level is a big ask. I don't have a solution to this btw, but my point is just that you'd like for the slight deficiencies in Leinster's team to be compensated for elsewhere (a physical 7 or Murray in top form for example) but when that's not there we can't really expect Leinster's dominance to translate to international level.

I said Irish squad cohesion. The Thomond derby was bad tempered and fits a correlated timeline for the Irish teams sudden decline in form.

Tom O'Toole is in the Irish squad but McGrath isn't. Murphy didn't make it and Connors did.

McCarthy is fading in Munster. Carbery is falling behind Byrne.

They arent quite Ian Madigan levels of form falling off a cliff but they are all serious.

Leinster have good squad cohesion and have had strong spells of holding squads together (& losses too). But international selection is a strong draw and it's hard to say no to an international coach.

3 guys regularly getting international caps, including a recent Lion test capped player all left Leinster in a 12 month period to go to other provinces. There were all guys set for 1 team careers in teams winning trophies. When has even 1 happened before that in the 6N era? How many times has it happened to Munster or Ulster?

You are both extremely smart rugby analysts but I don't understand how you can't see something amiss here.

None of the moves worked out. It wasnt clear just how big a mistake was being made at the time, sure. The correct balance is that no one in their position should have been moved.

Fitzgerald, Johnston and Healy are pretty compelling evidence that outhalf talent is being produced in Munster. They just haven't been given an opportunity to break into the team.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I said Irish squad cohesion. The Thomond derby was bad tempered and fits a correlated timeline for the Irish teams sudden decline in form.

Tom O'Toole is in the Irish squad but McGrath isn't. Murphy didn't make it and Connors did.

McCarthy is fading in Munster. Carbery is falling behind Byrne.

They arent quite Ian Madigan levels of form falling off a cliff but they are all serious.

Leinster have good squad cohesion and have had strong spells of holding squads together (& losses too). But international selection is a strong draw and it's hard to say no to an international coach.

3 guys regularly getting international caps, including a recent Lion test capped player all left Leinster in a 12 month period to go to other provinces. There were all guys set for 1 team careers in teams winning trophies. When has even 1 happened before that in the 6N era? How many times has it happened to Munster or Ulster?

You are both extremely smart rugby analysts but I don't understand how you can't see something amiss here.

None of the moves worked out. It wasnt clear just how big a mistake was being made at the time, sure. The correct balance is that no one in their position should have been moved.

Fitzgerald, Johnston and Healy are pretty compelling evidence that outhalf talent is being produced in Munster. They just haven't been given an opportunity to break into the team.

Yeah I got that you meant Ireland but I was curious as to how it affected cohesion. Are you just talking about the mental side of it? The bond between the players or something?

Of the players you mentioned...
- O'Toole is a tighthead so has nothing to do with McGrath losing his place.
- Jack was in dreadful form and was struggling to get back from a hip injury. He'd fallen behind Ed Byrne and wanted out to get games. That's not an example of a player losing form from a move, and it's not the IRFU's fault that he moved. If anything the move has reinvigorated him (although Eric O'Sullivan has suffered) and he's looking decent again but it took a long time. Don't forget that he wasn't in the World Cup squad and that had nothing to do with his Ulster move.
- The move hasn't gone well for Jordi but I'm not sure how cohesion matters. The guy was at Leinster for nearly a decade and won three 6N with Ireland. Not being in Leinster won't have suddenly meant that it's awkward playing with the Ireland players.
- If anything the fact that Connors took his spot indicates that moves are good and help to develop more players.
- McCarthy wasn't on the Ireland radar so has no relevance to Ireland cohesion.
- Joey has been injured. I don't understand why people say the move has been bad for him when he's been injured constantly since he arrived. It might turn out to be a disaster because of Munster, but right now it's a disaster because of injuries. He could be healthy for all of next season but have Murray playing like a drain and Munster's attacking game in a muddle, or he could have Casey on fire, De Allende busting helping him to get on the front foot, and everyone singing to Larkham's tune. Impossible to know but right now I fail to see how his move has affected cohesion. Had he played for Ireland and been running into Henshaw and Ringrose or had mix ups as a second playmaker alongside Johnny then I could see the point.

I really don't see anything amiss in terms of those moves affecting Ireland to any great extent.

But I also said that I hate the idea of Nucifora treating Irish rugby like the seating plan for a wedding so am fully aware that something could be amiss. I'm not in favour of moving players just for the sake of it and I think Nucifora needs to rethink the idea of moving players just for game time or to save on other signings and acknowledge that sometimes the best environment for a player may well be as a squad player at Leinster, partly because their development has gone well so far but also because the competition drives the first choice players more too. That to me is a bigger worry right now, not that guys haven't been performing since moving, but that the incumbents aren't at their best. So for example, I don't think the move to Ulster has hurt Jack, but maybe he had great technical knowledge that helped Healy? Maybe he was better at pushing Furlong and Porter than Milne is now and the Irish squad has suffered as a result? Alternatively, maybe he's improving O'Sullivan's knowledge now and roasting O'Toole in training which is developing his game week in week out? Which one is the better scenario?

I've no idea what the answers to those questions are, but the point is that those questions exist. The moves made so far aren't sufficient evidence that all moves are bad, but we also need to put more thought into who moves and where they go to rather than just say "there's a gap there and this guy needs games". I share your concerns about moves, just don't think we can categorically say that the ones so far have affected the cohesion in the Ireland team.

[Ruckedtobits]

Good post @LRIP. Both hypothesis are valid but unproven. Certainly changing nothing would never allow such arguments to be tested but the outcomes have so many relevant factors that it's very difficult to validate the results either way.

The liklihood is that Nucifora merely reviewed how successful some player moves had been in NZ and assumed they might also worked in the previously 'tight' Provincial structures. But injuries, coaching changes and emergence of competitive players are but three of the known unknowns which can, and have, affected the outcomes. There are definitely other factors but even three of relevance are significant.

[JB1973]

Ronk:

"Rewarding players who move can affect the morale of players who weren’t asked to move or said no. I think it also damaged Irish squad cohesion."

Of the latter point I am absolutely convinced. Glad to see I'm not the only one.

How so? I'd say Joey is the only one relevant to that and he's been injured anyway.

I'm a big believer in everything Hugo said about the environment making all Leinster players better but not sure how cohesion comes into it.

For me it's about getting the balance right of where and why players are asked to move and we need to learn lessons from what's happened so far. I think there's merit in some players leaving but hate Nucifora's apparent vision of just treating Irish rugby like a seating plan for a wedding.

Slight tangent but I'm also getting uncomfortable with the Ireland team being so reliant on Leinster. For all the talk of Ireland v England essentially being Leinster v Saracens, the England team has far more diversity in the team. From the game last week the back row and half backs came from other clubs. Yes we play a different style to Leinster but my problem with that is that we aren't particularly tested week to week but also still worry about bigger packs in certain games, so for the guts of our team to have to raise their game at international level is a big ask. I don't have a solution to this btw, but my point is just that you'd like for the slight deficiencies in Leinster's team to be compensated for elsewhere (a physical 7 or Murray in top form for example) but when that's not there we can't really expect Leinster's dominance to translate to international level.

I said Irish squad cohesion. The Thomond derby was bad tempered and fits a correlated timeline for the Irish teams sudden decline in form.

Tom O'Toole is in the Irish squad but McGrath isn't. Murphy didn't make it and Connors did.

McCarthy is fading in Munster. Carbery is falling behind Byrne.

They arent quite Ian Madigan levels of form falling off a cliff but they are all serious.

Leinster have good squad cohesion and have had strong spells of holding squads together (& losses too). But international selection is a strong draw and it's hard to say no to an international coach.

3 guys regularly getting international caps, including a recent Lion test capped player all left Leinster in a 12 month period to go to other provinces. There were all guys set for 1 team careers in teams winning trophies. When has even 1 happened before that in the 6N era? How many times has it happened to Munster or Ulster?

You are both extremely smart rugby analysts but I don't understand how you can't see something amiss here.

None of the moves worked out. It wasnt clear just how big a mistake was being made at the time, sure. The correct balance is that no one in their position should have been moved.

Fitzgerald, Johnston and Healy are pretty compelling evidence that outhalf talent is being produced in Munster. They just haven't been given an opportunity to break into the team.

In fairness to Carberry it's injuries that have held his progress back , rather than a lack of form

It's a tough call to make , are you better off being a squad player but still getting a fair amount of games in a side like leinster where your winning all the time and getting (from the outside) what looks like better coaching and playing with better players

Or are you better off going to a side like Munster (who are still a strong side ) and being the first choice there and playing every game

I would say that once you reach a certain age your better off playing week in week out albeit in a weaker team

Carberry backed himself to kick on at munster and if he did well he had a real chance of ousting sexton as the irish ten

Due to his injuries that has not happened and if anything he has probably fallen further down the irish pecking order at 10 as other players have improved ( eg burns at ulster,)

From a test level I suppose the dream scenario for the IRFU is for your top 4 players in each position to be spread out 1 at each province, however that would see the stronger provinces especially you guys being made weaker.

[riocard911]

I thought we were out-muscled in the second half of the final last year. Saracens were able to get over the gain line more easily than we did. Don't recall it being an issue in the QF the year before so hopefully we'll be able to correct this time around.

We also had 2-3 entries into their 22 with absolutely 0 points. Whereas in 2018 we converted pretty much every chance we got. That was the biggest difference for me really.

Yeah in a final, the margins are that fine. Luke's kick before half time and Ringrose not converting the overlap. That's a 10-14 point swing.

"Luke's kick" was recovered, ffs. He didn't give away possession. James Ryan went on a trundle, got isolated and was penalised for holding the ball on the ground. If anyone's at fault its the pack, not the scrum-half. So why is he forever getting all the blame? Kicking the ball out and going off for half time in the lead instead of taking a box kick in retrospect might have been the better way to go, but who made the decision? Luke McGrath - as in "Luke's kick"? Or was it made collectively, which would make the kick even less "Luke's".....

[arsebiscuits1]

"Luke's kick" was recovered, ffs. He didn't give away possession. James Ryan went on a trundle, got isolated and was penalised for holding the ball on the ground. If anyone's at fault its the pack, not the scrum-half. So why is he forever getting all the blame? Kicking the ball out and going off for half time in the lead instead of taking a box kick in retrospect might have been the better way to go, but who made the decision? Luke McGrath - as in "Luke's kick"? Or was it made collectively, which would make the kick even less "Luke's".....

While I do think that Lukes kick wasn't necessarily the wrong decision, you're misremembering what happened....

His kick definitely wasn't regathered. And possession was given away. So no real need for the ffs

He sent up a contestable on half way which Billy V caught. Kearney made the tackle and didn't roll away (harshly I thought. Vunipola clearly lay on him)

The kick was a pretty decent option. As Luke approaches the breakdown, you can see Johnny shout something to him and he was stood in the pocket. He likely called the kick.

We had Toner, Conan, Kearney and Larmour all chasing. The first thing that happens when the kick is made is Sarries 2, 9 and 11 all look instantly where the oncoming Leinster contenders are (Kearney and Larmour) and do a really good job to shield them.

Sexton would have seen Billy V in the backfield and backed our lads to out jump him. Which they would have if it were not for some very smart blocking by Sarries. Then we're in their 3rd of the pitch having just scored a try with a real chance to put a 14 point gap on by half time. Against the best teams these are the knife edge moments that you need to go your way

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I always felt sorry for Luke getting the blame for that but regardless of what happened afterwards (and I agree it was a harsh penalty) it was a really stupid thing to do given the time on the clock. I could understand Johnny calling an overlap or something but a kick to contest like that was a terrible decision at that time in the match and Luke could have just said no and booted it out or one of the other players could have cancelled it too.

My worry after something like that is that we saw Ireland do similar last week and I think our players often back themselves to overcome whatever is in front of them regardless of what the best option is. I hope that Leo and Lancaster set out some ground rules for what we can and can't do depending on the situation during the QF. As much as I love seeing our players back themselves and bemoan how predictable Joe's Ireland got, we just can't give Saracens any easy entries or forego any opportunities to give ourselves a break if needed. Just one simple thing would be no box kicks infield, offloads from Lowe, or runs from Larmour from within our 22 after a long defensive set.

[riocard911]

"Luke's kick" was recovered, ffs. He didn't give away possession. James Ryan went on a trundle, got isolated and was penalised for holding the ball on the ground. If anyone's at fault its the pack, not the scrum-half. So why is he forever getting all the blame? Kicking the ball out and going off for half time in the lead instead of taking a box kick in retrospect might have been the better way to go, but who made the decision? Luke McGrath - as in "Luke's kick"? Or was it made collectively, which would make the kick even less "Luke's".....

While I do think that Lukes kick wasn't necessarily the wrong decision, you're misremembering what happened....

His kick definitely wasn't regathered. And possession was given away. So no real need for the ffs

He sent up a contestable on half way which Billy V caught. Kearney made the tackle and didn't roll away (harshly I thought. Vunipola clearly lay on him)

The kick was a pretty decent option. As Luke approaches the breakdown, you can see Johnny shout something to him and he was stood in the pocket. He likely called the kick.

We had Toner, Conan, Kearney and Larmour all chasing. The first thing that happens when the kick is made is Sarries 2, 9 and 11 all look instantly where the oncoming Leinster contenders are (Kearney and Larmour) and do a really good job to shield them.

Sexton would have seen Billy V in the backfield and backed our lads to out jump him. Which they would have if it were not for some very smart blocking by Sarries. Then we're in their 3rd of the pitch having just scored a try with a real chance to put a 14 point gap on by half time. Against the best teams these are the knife edge moments that you need to go your way

I stand corrected, LRIF: you're recollection of the incident is better than mine!!!