Leinster v Salarysins

[joooooe]

Saracens will have half their current squad by then.

On what are you basing this prediction? As I mentioned above, it seems - based on what I have seen - that a lot of their internationals are committing to staying (George, Daly, Goode and Koch have confirmed but there are rumours about lots of others staying).
My guess is that this is because they are so balls-deep in the property investment side of their "remuneration package" that it is not attractive to break contract.

I am not a subscriber to the cliche that 'we want to beat them with their best players'.
Leinster and Ireland really struggle to deal with Billy Vunipola (and Tuilagi) and I would guess Skelton is similar. I've no problem saying that I would rather play Sarries without Billy.
I've seen no updates on his injury in a month, but I would guess he is touch-and-go for the scheduled game.
In that sense, I would rather us face them now (even behind closed doors), than September.
From what I have read, the Vunipolas and Farrell are staying. This is from last week: https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/rugby/ ... 79491.html .

The players can want what they like but they won't necessarily get it. Saracens are being relegated to the Championship and will now receive only half of the central funding they thought they would get. They also have to be compliant with the salary cap for next year in order to be promoted. The current squad clearly doesn't comply with the existing salary cap so they will have to trim somewhere. Add another factor: the players don't want to be playing in the championship in a season that will now see two 6 Nations championships and a Lions tour. From a club POV, they won't get the TV revenue they are currently receiving, they get little match day revenue as it is (no fans and they don't own the stadium) and they will have much lower gates for away trips now too. They have lost their primary (i.e. shirt, stadium) sponsor and will struggle to get anything close to what they are currently receiving in that regard. I believe Barnet Council are also reducing their stipend for stadium use (or something like that).

In short, they will hemorrhage money next season no matter what they do, but they will take any action they can to reduce this.

Given the above, can you see Itoje, Farrell, Vunipola (take your pick) and George playing away to Ealling or Coventry or Cornish Pirates instead of HC and Prem? No chance. The French clubs and the wealthier English clubs will be playing a game of pick-up-the-discarded-Saracen this summer, if not sooner. They may already have deals in place but will not want this to come out before the only match of note they have remaining this season: i.e. against us.

We may end up playing against Billy Vunipola in September, but if we do he'll be the only kid who wasn't picked at break time and he'll be part of a team similar to the one they put out against Racing a few months ago. Playing them in April is going to a be a lot harder than playing them in September.

One final thought: if it is rescheduled for September, I wonder if Saracens might agree loan deals for the players that would only kick in once their HC involvement is over? PRetty unappealing prospect for clubs taking on these players as they'd miss pre-season but it could be useful.

[LeinsterLeader]

Irelands Euro2020 Qualifier to be played behind closed doors on March 26th. I think BCD is becoming a best case scenario for HEC QFs, unfortunately

[johng]

That is most certainly the worst case scenario.

Play them behind closed doors with no supporters now. When they still have a full team or play them later with full support when a lot of their players have left.....

[domhnallj]

The players can want what they like but they won't necessarily get it. Saracens are being relegated to the Championship and will now receive only half of the central funding they thought they would get. They also have to be compliant with the salary cap for next year in order to be promoted. The current squad clearly doesn't comply with the existing salary cap so they will have to trim somewhere. Add another factor: the players don't want to be playing in the championship in a season that will now see two 6 Nations championships and a Lions tour. From a club POV, they won't get the TV revenue they are currently receiving, they get little match day revenue as it is (no fans and they don't own the stadium) and they will have much lower gates for away trips now too. They have lost their primary (i.e. shirt, stadium) sponsor and will struggle to get anything close to what they are currently receiving in that regard. I believe Barnet Council are also reducing their stipend for stadium use (or something like that).

In short, they will hemorrhage money next season no matter what they do, but they will take any action they can to reduce this.

Given the above, can you see Itoje, Farrell, Vunipola (take your pick) and George playing away to Ealling or Coventry or Cornish Pirates instead of HC and Prem? No chance. The French clubs and the wealthier English clubs will be playing a game of pick-up-the-discarded-Saracen this summer, if not sooner. They may already have deals in place but will not want this to come out before the only match of note they have remaining this season: i.e. against us.

We may end up playing against Billy Vunipola in September, but if we do he'll be the only kid who wasn't picked at break time and he'll be part of a team similar to the one they put out against Racing a few months ago. Playing them in April is going to a be a lot harder than playing them in September.

One final thought: if it is rescheduled for September, I wonder if Saracens might agree loan deals for the players that would only kick in once their HC involvement is over? PRetty unappealing prospect for clubs taking on these players as they'd miss pre-season but it could be useful.

Ian Madigan spoke about playing with Bristol in the second division and it was not a glowing report. I know they are (or were) spinning this as some sort of sabbatical for front line players to rest them up for the Lions tour but I suspect when reality and the drudge of hammering semi-pro sides week in and out kicks in, the likes of George et al. will be looking at their contracts for get-outs.

[JB1973]

I think Farrell George and daly have all committed to staying there next season, they probably see it as a way to tick over until the lions tour and they will be back in the big time the season later. Sarries have by all accounts signed aled davies from us for next season, buy yes they will be a lot weaker next season and especially at home you will beat them with ease

[LeinsterLeader]

That is most certainly the worst case scenario.

Play them behind closed doors with no supporters now. When they still have a full team or play them later with full support when a lot of their players have left.....

Surely canceling the match altogether is the worse case

I'd take BCD over no game at all!

[riocard911]

That is most certainly the worst case scenario.

Play them behind closed doors with no supporters now. When they still have a full team or play them later with full support when a lot of their players have left.....

Surely canceling the match altogether is the worse case

I'd take BCD over no game at all!

Mise freisin. It's home soil, Dublin - D4. Bring it on!!!!

[johng]

I think you are missing the point lads. Empty Aviva stadium now or full one in September after sarries lose their players

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I'd love if we moved it somewhere novel like Kenilworth Square.

[Ruckedtobits]

The discussion by Top 14 owners & French League chiefs tonight and tomorrow will decide the outcome of whether the EPCR will.proceed with Q/F games. There is no room in French 2020-21 calendar for European games & 6N games without massive disruption of Top 14 schedule.

The French Government have only this week begun to face the prospect that Covid 19 might spread throughout the population as it has done in Italy. The French Minister for Culture has tested positive and local Elections are next week and will be a test of Macron's unpopularity. But Franxe has many older people in the population, especially outside Paris so the rugby chiefs are going to have to think and act in the national interest.

Watch this space.

[brotheroffrank]

If it is behind closed doors does it still have to be played in Landsowne Rd, or could it be moved to the RDS [or Donnybrook?] ? Playing in a big empty stadium is a bit soul destroying.....

on a seperate point, i spotted on a different social media forum an idea of Leinster Rugby offering fans who had bought tickets for the quarter final an option to donate their refund to this Seasons chosen charities [an option to donate, not a refusal to refund]; I suppose to try to turn a situation that no-one wanted into at least something a small bit positive for the charities (a bit like when many people donated their Water Charges Refund to homeless charities I suppose)...any thoughts on the idea?

[curates_egg]

If it is behind closed doors does it still have to be played in Landsowne Rd, or could it be moved to the RDS [or Donnybrook?] ? Playing in a big empty stadium is a bit soul destroying.....

on a seperate point, i spotted on a different social media forum an idea of Leinster Rugby offering fans who had bought tickets for the quarter final an option to donate their refund to this Seasons chosen charities [an option to donate, not a refusal to refund]; I suppose to try to turn a situation that no-one wanted into at least something a small bit positive for the charities (a bit like when many people donated their Water Charges Refund to homeless charities I suppose)...any thoughts on the idea?

Great idea.

[wixfjord]

It would be funny if this was played in Donnybrook behind closed doors! There'd be more than a few stepladders and maybe a few cherry pickers hired to give a look into the stadium I'd say!

[blockhead]

I think you are missing the point lads. Empty Aviva stadium now or full one in September after sarries lose their players

See this is what has been occupying my mind for the past few weeks.
If there was a short delay of a few weeks then that could see Big BillyV back in the team, don't want that.
But if the Heino was postponed and played in the Autumn then they would be down a host of players.

[Dave Cahill]

I'm beginning to think that neither the European or Pro14 competitions will be completed. Moving games into next season doesn't really work for club competitions and kind of voids the whole idea of seasonal competition. Munster, as an example, have two games against Benetton which are really significant for their conference and the playoffs. If those games are 0-0-ed then the integrity of what has gone before this season is hugely undermined. If the decision is made to push them into next season - and with the Six Nations already taking up free space there won't be much space for them - a Munster team featuring Snyman and De Allende playing also undermines the competition's integrity.

The same goes for European Campaign. If games are postponed into next season then the teams playing in the quarters won't be the teams that got to the quarters. Saracens will have lost a considerable number of players (probably on loan, but still) and the French sides will have gone through their usual summer churn. In fact, I can see the French teams being the straw that breaks the fixture logjam's back. If games are postponed pushing their season into the summer and reducing the off season - there is no way they'll load extra fixtures into next season.

[Lar]

I think you are missing the point lads. Empty Aviva stadium now or full one in September after sarries lose their players

See this is what has been occupying my mind for the past few weeks.
If there was a short delay of a few weeks then that could see Big BillyV back in the team, don't want that.
But if the Heino was postponed and played in the Autumn then they would be down a host of players.

There is no realistic way the HEC will be postponed to next season. It will go ahead this season or it will be cancelled. Behind closed doors a definite possibility but given the close contact nature of the game, if any player is tested positive then there is also a real risk the whole thing will be cancelled.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[curates_egg]

I think you are missing the point lads. Empty Aviva stadium now or full one in September after sarries lose their players

See this is what has been occupying my mind for the past few weeks.
If there was a short delay of a few weeks then that could see Big BillyV back in the team, don't want that.
But if the Heino was postponed and played in the Autumn then they would be down a host of players.

This is where I am coming at it from. Except I - like Dave and Lar - can't see how it could be postponed to next season.
It's either cancel, go-ahead behind closed doors or postpone for 3-4 weeks and cross your fingers.
Faced with that choice, I would guess the logical decision of the clubs and tournament organisers is to play behind closed doors: that is what the EPRC statement hinted at.
That's also, then, best case scenario for us, as we play them without Billy.

I think the Pro14 is fooked, which would be a real shame after our perfect season so far.

[blockhead]

See this is what has been occupying my mind for the past few weeks.
If there was a short delay of a few weeks then that could see Big BillyV back in the team, don't want that.
But if the Heino was postponed and played in the Autumn then they would be down a host of players.

This is where I am coming at it from. Except I - like Dave and Lar - can't see how it could be postponed to next season.
It's either cancel, go-ahead behind closed doors or postpone for 3-4 weeks and cross your fingers.
Faced with that choice, I would guess the logical decision of the clubs and tournament organisers is to play behind closed doors: that is what the EPRC statement hinted at.
That's also, then, best case scenario for us, as we play them without Billy.

I think the Pro14 is fooked, which would be a real shame after our perfect season so far.

Yeah I was half joking.
Can't see it moving into next Autumn.
The behind closed doors option though is already running into trouble in other sports. La Liga has announced that the next 2 rounds will be played BCDs but the players representatives are demanding that they be postponed for a fixed period of time.
Can see rugby going down this route too, rugby needs the gate revenue more than soccer.

[riocard911]

If the remaining Heino knock out matches cannot be played, do we not get the fifth star by default, having racked up the most points at the group stage?

[hugonaut]

I'm beginning to think that neither the European or Pro14 competitions will be completed. Moving games into next season doesn't really work for club competitions and kind of voids the whole idea of seasonal competition. Munster, as an example, have two games against Benetton which are really significant for their conference and the playoffs. If those games are 0-0-ed then the integrity of what has gone before this season is hugely undermined. If the decision is made to push them into next season - and with the Six Nations already taking up free space there won't be much space for them - a Munster team featuring Snyman and De Allende playing also undermines the competition's integrity.

The same goes for European Campaign. If games are postponed into next season then the teams playing in the quarters won't be the teams that got to the quarters. Saracens will have lost a considerable number of players (probably on loan, but still) and the French sides will have gone through their usual summer churn. In fact, I can see the French teams being the straw that breaks the fixture logjam's back. If games are postponed pushing their season into the summer and reducing the off season - there is no way they'll load extra fixtures into next season.

I agree.

Pro14 is a goner, I think. Two Italian teams from the affected regions will be forced to sit out the next couple of months, obviously. Then there are dozens of cross-border fixtures left to play out - we have games in South Africa and Wales, for example. Then there is just the basic issue of people gathering to watch games - will that be permitted by respective governments? Does the operating cost of playing a game with no gate make financial sense? You still need to pay security, to ensure that people don't go to the game/influence it out of badness.

The Pro14 is not a big money spinner. Given the issues above, I have the feeling that the powers that be will pull the plug on it.