Leinster v Salarysins

[carlow man]

A couple of conundrums for the selectors.
1. Youth or experience, getting the balance right, not just the starting 15 but the bench too obviously.
2. The lineout. Normally I'd be inclined to place the bulk of the blame on the hooker but it waa fairly obvious against Ulster that there is a system problem.
Experience, in a big game, is a huge advantage.
So too much youth would be a mistake.
That means a trade off in selection.
Kelleher, Baird and Connors might be a step too far for one of them.
Cronin to start, Connors to start. Fardy to bench and no matter how close to being ready Furlong is, Bent is the right call on the bench.

Would rather baird than fardy on bench. Fardy hasn't impressed since lockdown and you need to fight fire with fire against sarries even with a the likes of kruis and Skelton missing. Baird can come on and finish off the job. Cronin v kelleher is a big call. But both offer so much it's almost like they cancel each other out. Although both struggle at lineout time which is a worry against itoje.

[Xanthippe]

Off the top of my head, Leinster v Glasgow in a playoff a couple of years ago, Leinster v Exeter and Bath in the Aviva, Wasps in the Amlin and he was supposed to ref us against Munster a couple of years ago as well but got injured the previous weekend leading to Rolland having to take over, not uncontroversially.

Here’s the full list (did I ever mention that any sort of unbeaten run / streak makes me nervous!)

(P-12) 16/04/11 v Ulster (H) W 34-26 (YC - SOB)
(P-12) 04/11/11 v Munster (H) W 24-19 (YC - JH)
(H-Cup) 13/10/12 v Chiefs (H) W 9-6
(C-Cup) 05/04/13 v Wasps (A) W 28-48
(P-12) 11/05/13 v Glasgow (H) W 17-15
(H-Cup) 16/01/16 v Bath (H) W 25-11
(H-Cup) 16/12/17 v Chiefs (H) W 22-17 (YC - CH + SF)
(H-Cup) 15/12/18 v Bath (H) W 42-15

[fourthirtythree]

Has anyone watched the Analyst Eye with Murray Kinsella on youtube? I have been really enjoying it the last couple of weeks and think the analysis is excellent. But more specifically this week they focussed on the lineout for Leinster. Basically they showed a number of major lifting errors in the first half led to lost lineouts. Also highlighted some poor throwing from Kelleher, but the worst cases in the first half all seemed to be issues with the lifters.

Yeah, particularly critical of VdF a couple of times, Doris as well, bad spacing, Toner and Ryan not immune (Ryan rusty they felt) and throwing obviously flat. Communication was obviously an issue but I can't think the calls were changed for Ulster.

It will be disappointing if we lose, the season has been so exceptional, but if we win you have to think that there will be tougher matches ahead. I don't think we'd be as strong favourites with the bookies against Exeter for example. The baggage element of it? Sexton said it at the beginning of the season, that was a long time ago in a different country, and besides the horse is dead. No salary cap in the European cup. I do think we were playing better than we were coming into the final last year. Hard to tell now. I always like being favourites. It's a slight comfort to the nerves.

[Ruckedtobits]

Off the top of my head, Leinster v Glasgow in a playoff a couple of years ago, Leinster v Exeter and Bath in the Aviva, Wasps in the Amlin and he was supposed to ref us against Munster a couple of years ago as well but got injured the previous weekend leading to Rolland having to take over, not uncontroversially.

Here’s the full list (did I ever mention that any sort of unbeaten run / streak makes me nervous!)

(P-12) 16/04/11 v Ulster (H) W 34-26 (YC - SOB)
(P-12) 04/11/11 v Munster (H) W 24-19 (YC - JH)
(H-Cup) 13/10/12 v Chiefs (H) W 9-6
(C-Cup) 05/04/13 v Wasps (A) W 28-48
(P-12) 11/05/13 v Glasgow (H) W 17-15
(H-Cup) 16/01/16 v Bath (H) W 25-11
(H-Cup) 16/12/17 v Chiefs (H) W 22-17 (YC - CH + SF)
(H-Cup) 15/12/18 v Bath (H) W 42-15

Great research @ Xanthippe (as always).
That's quite a sequence but a lot of them very close. He's been a top level ref for a decade but I don't remember any big controversies in those games.

[LeinsterLeader]

No Fardy. Baird to bench

[mildlyinterested]

Cronin starts.

No Furlong.

Baird over Fardy on bench.

Connors at 7.

[wixfjord]

Sarries:

15 Elliot Daly (10)
14 Alex Lewington (51)
13 Duncan Taylor (130)
12 Brad Barritt (260)
11 Sean Maitland (77)
10 Alex Goode (300)
9 Richard Wigglesworth (247)
1 Mako Vunipola (169)
2 Jamie George (230)
3 Vincent Koch (85)
4 Maro Itoje (123)
5 Tim Swinson (3)
6 Mike Rhodes (97)
7 Jackson Wray (249)
8 Billy Vunipola (114)

Replacements

16 Tom Woolstencroft (40)
17 Richard Barrington (192)
18 Alec Clarey (5)
19 Callum Hunter-Hill (21)
20 Calum Clark (54)
21 Aled Davies (4)
22 Manu Vunipola (26)
23 Dom Morris (24)


As expected, Mako & Wigglesworth both make it. Taylor makes it at 13 too.

On paper, that is still a serious side.

[blockhead]

5. Jordan Larmour (49)
14. Hugo Keenan (17)
13. Garry Ringrose (75)
12. Robbie Henshaw (47)
11. James Lowe (46)
10. Johnny Sexton (166) CAPTAIN
9. Luke McGrath (126)
1. Cian Healy (219)
2. Seán Cronin (184)
3. Andrew Porter (65)
4. Devin Toner (248)
5. James Ryan (38)
6. Caelan Doris (32)
7. Will Connors (19)
8. Jack Conan (92)

16. Rónan Kelleher (14)
17. Ed Byrne (56)
18. Michael Bent (139)
19. Ryan Baird (9)
20. Josh van der Flier (83)
21. Jamison Gibson-Park (92)
22. Ross Byrne (88)
23. Rory O’Loughlin (70)

[wixfjord]

Massive call to back Baird.

Wouldn't be my choice personally but you've gotta respect Leo & Stu's backing of youth!

[mildlyinterested]

1st european appearances for Will Connors, Hugo Keenan and Ryan Baird.

[riocard911]

Happy with that. Think Baird's dynamism off the bench will be a plus. What you lose in experience without Fardy in the 23 you gain thru Nugget back at two, b'fhéidir....

[joooooe]

5. Jordan Larmour (49)
14. Hugo Keenan (17)
13. Garry Ringrose (75)
12. Robbie Henshaw (47)
11. James Lowe (46)
10. Johnny Sexton (166) CAPTAIN
9. Luke McGrath (126)
1. Cian Healy (219)
2. Seán Cronin (184)
3. Andrew Porter (65)
4. Devin Toner (248)
5. James Ryan (38)
6. Caelan Doris (32)
7. Will Connors (19)
8. Jack Conan (92)

16. Rónan Kelleher (14)
17. Ed Byrne (56)
18. Michael Bent (139)
19. Ryan Baird (9)
20. Josh van der Flier (83)
21. Jamison Gibson-Park (92)
22. Ross Byrne (88)
23. Rory O’Loughlin (70)

I like the idea of starting with two number 5s, but not sure Larmour would have been my first pick for that particular position

[blockhead]

5. Jordan Larmour (49)
14. Hugo Keenan (17)
13. Garry Ringrose (75)
12. Robbie Henshaw (47)
11. James Lowe (46)
10. Johnny Sexton (166) CAPTAIN
9. Luke McGrath (126)
1. Cian Healy (219)
2. Seán Cronin (184)
3. Andrew Porter (65)
4. Devin Toner (248)
5. James Ryan (38)
6. Caelan Doris (32)
7. Will Connors (19)
8. Jack Conan (92)

16. Rónan Kelleher (14)
17. Ed Byrne (56)
18. Michael Bent (139)
19. Ryan Baird (9)
20. Josh van der Flier (83)
21. Jamison Gibson-Park (92)
22. Ross Byrne (88)
23. Rory O’Loughlin (70)

I like the idea of starting with two number 5s, but not sure Larmour would have been my first pick for that particular position

Dammit!
I was in a hurry to beat mildly.

[Blueberry]

Well acid test now for Connors.....Big Billy is a handful. At least VDF there to freshen up the Billy tackling when Connors gets knackered.

We have them in the backs but forwards is a massive test - if we can get parity or better up front we should be fine.

Baird galloping around in the last 20 should be interesting and JGP to up tempo if needed.......Big call over Fardy's experience.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

They’ll be tough to break down as always but as long as the lineout is okay then I’ll think we’ll be quite comfortable.

I think we’re far better set up to cope with their ball carriers than we have been in the past due to a mix of Connors being involved and them being down some players. Need the ref to be strict on Itoje at lineout time and when he goes off his feet at the breakdown.

I think the Baird call is the right one. If we’re struggling to break them down then I think it’ll be dynamism that we need, not nous. I know Fardy can play 6 too but being able to decide to have Baird’s impact in either the second row or at 6 could be a real game changer and he’s the perfect impact sub IMO.

Lewington is a big defensive weakness IMO. He makes some bad reads and can be very dodgy in the air, think we’ll target him very heavily.

Had the usual big day/night out planned for this for the original fixture, sad that that can’t happen but really looking forward to it anyway.

[backrower8]

I think Stucaster have blinked as regards Kelleher.

We are far from guaranteed good line outs through Nugget’s inclusion to start.

Leaving RK2 out means we lose the same sort of muscle, punch and dynamism in the front row that Doris brings to the back row. We need that against the Wolf-pack. Now we have blinked and have to do without.

To be honest I was calling for RK2 to be replaced after 30 minutes in the PRO14 final, but then the second half happened and then I read the expert analysis that followed which diluted RK2’s failings significantly and I convinced myself we should persevere with Ireland’s new #1 number #2. So instead we bring in Nugget, who wasn’t in the 23 last week, back to improve the line out. Did he have a knock?

On another, similar note, much has been said about who they are missing. Byrne for McGrath and Bent for Furlong and now Nugget for RK2 de-powers our front 5 ranks against a gnarled opposition.

I Want to believe the bookies but haven’t seen our pack dominate yet this Autumn against weaker packs and still think Sarries/England have had J10’s number in 4 big matches since 6N 2019. Why should it be any different in game 5 and he another year nearer 40?

Leinster to win, just! But sentiment is leading me to that.

[Wanderers FC]

Well acid test now for Connors.....Big Billy is a handful. At least VDF there to freshen up the Billy tackling when Connors gets knackered.

We have them in the backs but forwards is a massive test - if we can get parity or better up front we should be fine.

Baird galloping around in the last 20 should be interesting and JGP to up tempo if needed.......Big call over Fardy's experience.

I’ll be looking with wide eyes to see if Connors is there purely to negate Billy V. If he doesn’t offer himself to tackle him every phase I’ll be calling out the hype merchants on here for bigging him up. This is not a game to go missing defensively or offer yourself in the wider channels when your job is solely to tackle their carriers. Will also be watching his work rate to get to the each breakdown in order to do this and not every other breakdown.

[backrower8]

I see Wanderers FC has just posted almost at the same time as me. I did 2 edits before final submission.

No doubt LRIP will suggest that that proves we are one in the same and that I had typed up both posts in advance of cutting-pasting and submitting.

I could state that I don’t agree with Wanderers FC’s post - but no doubt that would be seen by LRIP as a double bluff on my part.

[OTT]

The question I want to know is do you use the same password for them all? Stephendonnelly4eva?

[Flash Gordon]

Very brave selection. we are obviously looking to run them around the park on a warm day. very quick and mobile. Even the bench says that with Baird over Fardy. I like that. last year we tried to match them for muscle so we played to their strengths this year we play the Leinster way.