Pack size problems moving forward?

[Workhorse]

I've no idea what you're saying here to be honest.

The idea of a succession plan is to figure out what resources you may need in the future and work towards that.

The point is we should (and the coaches likely are) be thinking now about whether the size/power of our 8 will be enough in 2/3 years time, and if not, figuring out options to overcome that. One of the options might be to bring guys through (not just in SR, but throughout the pack), another option would be to bring in a foreign player.

Saying that in 3 years there might be shortage of size in the pack (which I disagree with as a concept anyway but we'll roll with it) so the plan is to get a NIQ in to fill the gap there isn't succession planning.

Succession planning is saying that in 3 years we'll likely lose a lot of size in the pack so we should see if we can add that mass to existing players in the meantime or bring through players we can add it to.

So if you take Dev as the example succession planning is that when he retires Baird/Ryan/Dunne will meet these targets to fill that gap. Then should none of them meet those targets you go look for a NIQ around the November before he retires.

You don't plan for your supply chain to fail, you plan for it to succeed then adapt at the time if there's blips in the system.

[mildlyinterested]

Looking at underage rugby there is three notable TH locks coming through, all around 6'6

Joe McCarthy(Blackrock/DUFC)(u20)
Ruairi Clarke(Cill Dara RFC)(u19)
Diarmuid Mangan(Newbridge)(u18)

None of them have the height of Dunne or Ryan, there is one lock at underage who has that height, Sean Walsh(Seapoint RFC/u19) but not sure he is a TH lock.

[Pilotman123]

Looking at underage rugby there is three notable TH locks coming through, all around 6'6

Joe McCarthy(Blackrock/DUFC)(u20)
Ruairi Clarke(Cill Dara RFC)(u19)
Diarmuid Mangan(Newbridge)(u18)

None of them have the height of Dunne or Ryan, there is one lock at underage who has that height, Sean Walsh(Seapoint RFC/u19) but not sure he is a TH lock.

Don’t forget Alex Soroka can play lock too

[mildlyinterested]

Looking at underage rugby there is three notable TH locks coming through, all around 6'6

Joe McCarthy(Blackrock/DUFC)(u20)
Ruairi Clarke(Cill Dara RFC)(u19)
Diarmuid Mangan(Newbridge)(u18)

None of them have the height of Dunne or Ryan, there is one lock at underage who has that height, Sean Walsh(Seapoint RFC/u19) but not sure he is a TH lock.

Don’t forget Alex Soroka can play lock too

He can but think Leinster have decided blindside is his long term position.

[neiliog93]

Can't speak for others but I'm talking about the here and now. Lack of size/power was to a large extent our undoing against Saracens (two Vunipolas, Itoje, Lamositele, George, Koch etc.). Our squad would objectively be improved by a having a big and powerful second row (as others have said, Toner is big but not powerful, and Baird is powerful but not big). Big and powerful would be a Snyman, Skelton, Etzebeth, Lawes, etc.

I also feel that if Cronin and/or Bryan Byrne are gone, we lack depth at hooker. Tracy isn't a top-level hooker and our next option under him is Dan Sheahan, who, while highly rated, is still very young. An good standard NIQ player at hooker makes sense for a season or two, and again, would objectively improve our squad.

[Pilotman123]

Can't speak for others but I'm talking about the here and now. Lack of size/power was to a large extent our undoing against Saracens (two Vunipolas, Itoje, Lamositele, George, Koch etc.). Our squad would objectively be improved by a having a big and powerful second row (as others have said, Toner is big but not powerful, and Baird is powerful but not big). Big and powerful would be a Snyman, Skelton, Etzebeth, Lawes, etc.

I also feel that if Cronin and/or Bryan Byrne are gone, we lack depth at hooker. Tracy isn't a top-level hooker and our next option under him is Dan Sheahan, who, while highly rated, is still very young. An good standard NIQ player at hooker makes sense for a season or two, and again, would objectively improve our squad.

Will Skelton wouldn’t last a full 80 minutes tho, he’s an impact sub he wouldn’t start on Leinster’s team, I reckon if we played Saracens this year we would of beat them

[neiliog93]

Though it's slightly worrying how quickly he seems to have gained those extra kgs during lockdown.

Just to clear it up nobody has said anything about anyone gaining weight during lockdown. Many players though would be on a bulking program because the off season is when you add that weight on.

I think there's a lot of confusion here over power and mass. Healy and Dooley are similar enough in weight though Healy is more powerful which is what sets him apart. Toner while physically a lot bigger than the other second rows we have is sort of the exception that proves the rule in that in Ireland we just don't tend to produce people that tall

Your comment about player height are interesting, and I think a little off. Of the 10 or so professional players who are 206 cm (6'9") or taller, four are Irish - Toner, Darren O'Shea, Thomas Ahern, and Cameroon Boon. We have generally had plenty of tall second rows, usually taller than England or France for example (England haven't had a 6'8" player since Simon Shaw). I think our issue has been getting specimens with bulk, power and athleticism as well as the extreme height - such a combination is very rare. That said, we're certainly not the only country who find it difficult to source physical specimens of that calibre though.

[Pilotman123]

Though it's slightly worrying how quickly he seems to have gained those extra kgs during lockdown.

Just to clear it up nobody has said anything about anyone gaining weight during lockdown. Many players though would be on a bulking program because the off season is when you add that weight on.

I think there's a lot of confusion here over power and mass. Healy and Dooley are similar enough in weight though Healy is more powerful which is what sets him apart. Toner while physically a lot bigger than the other second rows we have is sort of the exception that proves the rule in that in Ireland we just don't tend to produce people that tall

Your comment about player height are interesting, and I think a little off. Of the 10 or so professional players who are 206 cm (6'9") or taller, four are Irish - Toner, Darren O'Shea, Thomas Ahern, and Cameroon Boon. We have generally had plenty of tall second rows, usually taller than England or France for example (England haven't had a 6'8" player since Simon Shaw). I think our issue has been getting specimens with bulk, power and athleticism as well as the extreme height - such a combination is very rare. That said, we're certainly not the only country who find it difficult to source physical specimens of that calibre though.

It’s not in the Irish genes to be that big but it is in the Pacific islands which is why all the Tongans and Samoans are huge

[lummix]

Porter will definitely switch over to loose Head within the next 2 seasons. That'll give the pack a lot of size. Him Kelleher & Furlong would be more powerful than nearly any other front row around.

Do we really Think that Baird when he is fully grown will be anymore light weight than Toner.

Backrow you could pick any of 6 and be well served.

I think we will be just fine.

[mildlyinterested]

Can't speak for others but I'm talking about the here and now. Lack of size/power was to a large extent our undoing against Saracens (two Vunipolas, Itoje, Lamositele, George, Koch etc.). Our squad would objectively be improved by a having a big and powerful second row (as others have said, Toner is big but not powerful, and Baird is powerful but not big). Big and powerful would be a Snyman, Skelton, Etzebeth, Lawes, etc.

I also feel that if Cronin and/or Bryan Byrne are gone, we lack depth at hooker. Tracy isn't a top-level hooker and our next option under him is Dan Sheahan, who, while highly rated, is still very young. An good standard NIQ player at hooker makes sense for a season or two, and again, would objectively improve our squad.

Tracy is much better than Byrne and has been a solid squad player for years. Cronin will be here for this season, and they are backing that after this year Sheehan will have been exposed enough and proven his quality that once Cronin leaves that replacing him with a NIQ will not be needed. Much the same as Kelleher has emerged this season. If Sheehan fails to step up in the opportunities afforded to him then maybe they start to look elsewhere.

Same goes for Baird/Ryan, Leinster are extremely unlikely to sign someone who will play in front of them once Toner/Fardy leave. They will either have to sink or swim as a pair.

[wixfjord]

Porter moving across would certainly be a big help. That would be one mean front row.

With regards backrow, we have plenty of ball players but besides Doris (and Leavy to a degree, although his carrying game is more based on footwork imo), nobody who really dominates the opposition in contact a la SOB.

Rhys has been an incredibly important player for us over the last few years imo and hopefully Josh M can fill that #6 enforcer role. He had a brilliant season imo.

[mildlyinterested]

Josh M hasn't shown he is capable of being an enforcer at the top level, lacks that top end ability for me.

[neiliog93]

Conan and Ruddock are our most powerful back row players in terms of ball carrying. Doris and Deegan are more in the Kieran Read mould of tall, lean, skilful and athletic rather than the Duane Vermeulen mould of sheer brute force and power.

That said, neither Conan nor Ruddock are quite powerful enough to run directly into a big front rower or a beefy back rower like Vermeulen and win the collision. Guys like Billy Vunipola, Henry Tuilagi, Louis Picamoles, even Ben Morgan can do that (or, in an Irish context, Stephen Ferris or Victor Costello). I'm not saying we need a player of the enormous power of Ferris or Costello in the back row in order to be successful (we don't), but there's no point in pretending we have truly world class 'power ball carriers' when we don't. Just to add that I don't think CJ Stander has that truly world class level of size and power either, when he runs directly into contact against the forwards of the top sides he consistently gets knocked back.

[lummix]

I think I would rather have pace and footwork rather than size with the way the game is going. Especially if they start enforcing the offside line like they are since rugby started back in new zealand and we move to summer rugby with dry fast pitches.

[Pilotman123]

It’s worrying me that everyone thinks for Leinster to win a champions cup we need to be the biggest team which is not true, size isn’t everything

[wixfjord]

It’s worrying me that everyone thinks for Leinster to win a champions cup we need to be the biggest team which is not true, size isn’t everything

Literally not one person has said that

[Morf]

Unless there is a glaring weakness in a position I doubt IRFU would sanction a big name foreign player either.

Keeping in mind the number of NIE locks Leinster have had in the last decade I imagine with a healthy crop of young locally developed talent that we might be expected to make do.

[ronk]

Can't speak for others but I'm talking about the here and now. Lack of size/power was to a large extent our undoing against Saracens (two Vunipolas, Itoje, Lamositele, George, Koch etc.). Our squad would objectively be improved by a having a big and powerful second row (as others have said, Toner is big but not powerful, and Baird is powerful but not big). Big and powerful would be a Snyman, Skelton, Etzebeth, Lawes, etc.

I also feel that if Cronin and/or Bryan Byrne are gone, we lack depth at hooker. Tracy isn't a top-level hooker and our next option under him is Dan Sheahan, who, while highly rated, is still very young. An good standard NIQ player at hooker makes sense for a season or two, and again, would objectively improve our squad.

There weren’t any massive locks in the list of Saracens players, it did have 4 players who are or close to the best in the world at their positions.

We could improve the squad but we have enough depth there that it’s hard to sign players who would improve us all that much. I think the best strategy at the moment is to build with what we have and go to market if we need to. Fardy has been a great versatile signing. In 2 years time we may or may not need a lock, we could have greater needs at 1 or 2. We could even find ourselves light at tighthead having just lost 2 of them.

[hugonaut]

Same goes for Baird/Ryan, Leinster are extremely unlikely to sign someone who will play in front of them once Toner/Fardy leave. They will either have to sink or swim as a pair.

Zero chance of Leinster signing an NIQ after Fardy, and rightly so. We are stacked in the second row at academy/development level. We have literally never had more home grown talent in this position. Ryan Baird, Jack Dunne, Charlie Ryan, Brian Deeny – and McCarthy coming into the academy for next season – all of them under 21 or younger. Charlie Ryan and Deeny were two-year U20 internationals, McCarthy will be, and the only reason Baird and Dunne weren't was because they were still in school as U19s. None of them under 198cm, the lightest of them at 108kg ... and they're kids.

We will need five second rows in the senior squad. It's a 27 game regular season at the moment [21 league + 6 cup] and Leinster really have to budget for 30 games, i.e. reaching semi-final in each competition. That makes 90 lock spots/season [(2 starters +1 sub) x 30 games]. JR is going to be playing 15-16 games max. per season, which leaves 74-75 spots/season. Three other locks aren't going to cover 25 games each, especially with Baird on the doorstep of the international set-up already. With four other locks you're looking at 18-19 games each, which is enough to sustain a player, and doesn't even take into account injuries, or the presence of Ross Molony.

Our biggest problem is going to be keeping them, because James Ryan is going to hold his jersey for another decade. That limits opportunities for starts in the biggest games. Realistically these lads have come into the organisation in such a short space of time that at least one of them is going to be dissatisfied with his rate of progress compared to his contemporaries.

But to be frank we've hit a real motherlode - so many players in such a short space of time who have great height, serious athleticism and can play. I'm really confident and positive about all of these players, I think we're really well set.

[mildlyinterested]

Can't speak for others but I'm talking about the here and now. Lack of size/power was to a large extent our undoing against Saracens (two Vunipolas, Itoje, Lamositele, George, Koch etc.). Our squad would objectively be improved by a having a big and powerful second row (as others have said, Toner is big but not powerful, and Baird is powerful but not big). Big and powerful would be a Snyman, Skelton, Etzebeth, Lawes, etc.

I also feel that if Cronin and/or Bryan Byrne are gone, we lack depth at hooker. Tracy isn't a top-level hooker and our next option under him is Dan Sheahan, who, while highly rated, is still very young. An good standard NIQ player at hooker makes sense for a season or two, and again, would objectively improve our squad.

There weren’t any massive locks in the list of Saracens players, it did have 4 players who are or close to the best in the world at their positions.

We could improve the squad but we have enough depth there that it’s hard to sign players who would improve us all that much. I think the best strategy at the moment is to build with what we have and go to market if we need to. Fardy has been a great versatile signing. In 2 years time we may or may not need a lock, we could have greater needs at 1 or 2. We could even find ourselves light at tighthead having just lost 2 of them.

Skelton is huge and was very effective at using that size. listed at 6'8, 125kg.
Kruis is also a massive lock, listed at 6'6, 123kg.

So thats a huge starting lock combo, with Isiekwe on the bench listed at 6'7, 120kg.

Combined with Itoje at 6, 6'5 + 115kg, the Vunipola brothers and George and you are talking about a pretty huge pack.