England V Ireland 6 Nations 2014

[offshorerules]

Tommy O'Donnell dropped. Let the recriminations and conspiracy theorists over on Munsterfans begin.

[simonno6]

harsh on O'Donnell who has been doing well off the bench but a great opportunity for Jordi.

[suisse]

O'Donnell injured? Hardly a key player but still surprised he was dropped.

[Golf Man]

GM I'm surprised, given that you obviously have a good understanding of rugby, that you haven't realised that the reason Toner doesn't make that many steals is because he acts as a deterrent. Teams will avoid throwing to his location. Hence POM and others will be the ones to make the steals.
This is a good example of how AB0 might usefully have engaged himself in some statistical analysis.
Sample Proposition:- Toner does not make many lineout steals, therefore he is not a good lineout operator and therefore he should be replaced.
Is he a poor lineout operator OR Is there another reason and if so what is it.
I've given the answer that I think covers the above without doing the stats however.........................

First off I'll save the bolded for posterity

On Toner - whether its psychology, or a detterant or nothing - it basically can't be proved at the moment. First two games the opposition lineout has been woeful. I can't see Hartley and co being detered by Toner being there and would expect them to play their own game. Its probably a combined effort - I think more use of POM in the lineout has had as much impact as Toner (on opposition ball). Personally I'd have POM jumping at the front on opposition ball and Toner and POC at the back - would really give them something to think about

On the selection - suprised that Murphy is in and TOD is definitely unlucky but no real issues - hopefully he does the same with the subs in the coming games. I hope that Ryan is released to Munster and isn't being held as cover - he needs the games far more than McCarthy

[Fireworks]

GM I'm surprised, given that you obviously have a good understanding of rugby, that you haven't realised that the reason Toner doesn't make that many steals is because he acts as a deterrent. Teams will avoid throwing to his location. Hence POM and others will be the ones to make the steals.
This is a good example of how AB0 might usefully have engaged himself in some statistical analysis.
Sample Proposition:- Toner does not make many lineout steals, therefore he is not a good lineout operator and therefore he should be replaced.
Is he a poor lineout operator OR Is there another reason and if so what is it.
I've given the answer that I think covers the above without doing the stats however.........................

First off I'll save the bolded for posterity

On Toner - whether its psychology, or a detterant or nothing - it basically can't be proved at the moment. First two games the opposition lineout has been woeful. I can't see Hartley and co being detered by Toner being there and would expect them to play their own game. Its probably a combined effort - I think more use of POM in the lineout has had as much impact as Toner (on opposition ball). Personally I'd have POM jumping at the front on opposition ball and Toner and POC at the back - would really give them something to think about

Toner is often used towards the middle or back of the lineout. The point being that it forces the opposition to throw to the front, throw fast and brilliantly accurately or throw some sort of high lob to get over him. All of the teams including ours look at the oppositions lineout identify the threats and then make their calls to avoid those threats. He does not have to pick it off himself. His presence makes teams throw more of their ball to a smaller area which makes it easier to poach.
On the selection - suprised that Murphy is in and TOD is definitely unlucky but no real issues - hopefully he does the same with the subs in the coming games. I hope that Ryan is released to Munster and isn't being held as cover - he needs the games far more than McCarthy

[Fireworks]

harsh on O'Donnell who has been doing well off the bench but a great opportunity for Jordi.

Tough on him but it does not weaken us. Would have liked to see Madigan play better in recent games for Leinster as I think Joe might have rotated that spot if his form was better. Overall a solid team with only one person, O'Donnell, who could feel hard done by though we do not know if he is carrying an injury or if there is an issue with his stats.

[nelly the elephant]

I don't think it's accurate to say Schmidt has been conservative. I'd say sticking with the likes of Trimble and Kearney shows a different streak to previous managers. The message is there that if you play well you'll be picked on form. Maybe that's why Trimble has been performing, and indeed Dave has looked lively too.

In the past I reckon we'd be fast-tracking in Zebo/Bowe/Fitzgerald, anyone who was perceived as "first choice".

This is the other thing with Joe, it seems clear there's more of a sense of a panel and teams that might surprise occasionally. It generally suggests a wider plan and more thought in terms of our tactics.

We'll see how get on for the rest of the tournament but I'd say the signs are already there that guys are coming into the team primed and ready, whether from exile like Trimble, from lack of opportunities like Henry, or from the bench, like McGrath/Moore.

There have been a couple of guys, Trimble, POM, who've prob had their best games for Ireland since Joe came in. Others like Rob Kearney look on the way back to the kind of form we know they have.

Incredible reduction in dropped passes and unforced errors.

Another big test this weekend, but let's see how we go. Even if we lose on Saturday, if we can beat Italy it's likely we'll be going to Paris with a shot at the Championship.

Well said, great post.

[TerenureJim]

On Toner - whether its psychology, or a detterant or nothing - it basically can't be proved at the moment. First two games the opposition lineout has been woeful. I can't see Hartley and co being detered by Toner being there and would expect them to play their own game. Its probably a combined effort - I think more use of POM (6ft 3") in the lineout has had as much impact as Toner (6ft 11") (on opposition ball). Personally I'd have POM jumping at the front on opposition ball and Toner and POC at the back - would really give them something to think about y

I like POM, and he's athletic at lineout time in a similar vein to Heaslip. Both are big guys but not the tallest either. Also no issue with you structuring the lineout with POM to front and Toner/POC at the back but to honestly suggest that POM has as much impact on opposition throw as Toner suggests you've been smoking crack! Come on the guy's sheer presence has an affect on the throw never mind the jumpers given the height he gives either jumping or lifting cannot be matched by any other player in the six nations. The hooker need to get serious height on his darts which inevitably leads to sloppy/poor posession even where you win the ball.

Now I'm not suggesting he's the best second row in the six nations merely that he has the greatest affect on opposition lineouts because you specifically have to plan around him rather than just going with moves you'd usually go to against normal lineouts with guys circa 6ft6".

[gfo]

The seething from this 23 is going to be hilarious. Already I've heard "It's not Ireland, it's a Lulster team" and "Joe is deliberately doing it to get back at Munster for his time as Leinster coach" and the usual blah blah blah boycott the national team I'm a Munster-only fan now

It's like they just can't accept that their players lack basic footballing skills. At least Foley is on board now to continue the expansive intelligent rugby that Penney tried to get them to play

[Fireworks]

Marmion - I think he's better than Boss now and I really don't think we should be planing on Reddan and Boss for the WC - bring him into the squad now, rather than throwing him in at the deep end next year if there are problems with Reddan and/or Boss (very similar to what is happening with Henshaw for example)

I would agree that we should not be relying on Boss and Reddan as options for the WC but Marmion might not be the answer. I think Hart would be ahead of him. He is playing for a far superior team in a tough league and getting MOTM in big games. However the old guys are not done yet and they still have something to offer. They have a lot of experience in big games that could still be of use. The young guys need a chance but they have to prove that they are better than what is here now rather than just having more potential.

[fourthirtythree]

Marmion - I think he's better than Boss now and I really don't think we should be planing on Reddan and Boss for the WC - bring him into the squad now, rather than throwing him in at the deep end next year if there are problems with Reddan and/or Boss (very similar to what is happening with Henshaw for example)

I would agree that we should not be relying on Boss and Reddan as options for the WC but Marmion might not be the answer. I think Hart would be ahead of him. He is playing for a far superior team in a tough league and getting MOTM in big games. However the old guys are not done yet and they still have something to offer. They have a lot of experience in big games that could still be of use. The young guys need a chance but they have to prove that they are better than what is here now rather than just having more potential.

Good call. Get that man a cap ASAP.

[Golf Man]

On Toner - whether its psychology, or a detterant or nothing - it basically can't be proved at the moment. First two games the opposition lineout has been woeful. I can't see Hartley and co being detered by Toner being there and would expect them to play their own game. Its probably a combined effort - I think more use of POM (6ft 3") in the lineout has had as much impact as Toner (6ft 11") (on opposition ball). Personally I'd have POM jumping at the front on opposition ball and Toner and POC at the back - would really give them something to think about y

I like POM, and he's athletic at lineout time in a similar vein to Heaslip. Both are big guys but not the tallest either. Also no issue with you structuring the lineout with POM to front and Toner/POC at the back but to honestly suggest that POM has as much impact on opposition throw as Toner suggests you've been smoking crack! Come on the guy's sheer presence has an affect on the throw never mind the jumpers given the height he gives either jumping or lifting cannot be matched by any other player in the six nations. The hooker need to get serious height on his darts which inevitably leads to sloppy/poor posession even where you win the ball.

Now I'm not suggesting he's the best second row in the six nations merely that he has the greatest affect on opposition lineouts because you specifically have to plan around him rather than just going with moves you'd usually go to against normal lineouts with guys circa 6ft6".

1. Again the effect of Toners "presence" cannot be measured - its an assumption that may be fact or may not be - as I said we'll see if England try to avoid him or get spooked - Wales and Scotland were a shambles in the lineout, England won't be. On facts alone Toner doesn't steal much opposition ball - we might steal more elsewhere if they are avoiding him - there is however no evidence of this. If you look at the lineout stats for teh 2 games so far we have had 30 and won 28 (93.33% with Toner 11, POM 6, POC 4, Tuohy 2, Heaslip 3, TOD 2). We also have had 30 against us and have stolen/turned over 7 (Tuohy 2, POM, POC and Toner all 1, 2 not straight). Has Toner had a big impact in the lineout - of course he has - he should=! But it reads more like a real combined improvement (which is great to see). Its actually fair to say that Best/Cronin have had the biggest impact, especially given the issues that they have both had from time to time

2. Hearing a Leinster fan praising the lifting in the lineout - nice to see the concept/advantage of same being acknowledged finally!

Its been good so far and I've no complaints about Toner - he is deserving of his place - I do think that Tuohy, Ryan and Henderson will put huge pressure on him to partner POC though - which again is great to see

To the couple of posters whose first response to this announcement was to start trolling Munster fans - why bother?

[Fireworks]

Marmion - I think he's better than Boss now and I really don't think we should be planing on Reddan and Boss for the WC - bring him into the squad now, rather than throwing him in at the deep end next year if there are problems with Reddan and/or Boss (very similar to what is happening with Henshaw for example)

I would agree that we should not be relying on Boss and Reddan as options for the WC but Marmion might not be the answer. I think Hart would be ahead of him. He is playing for a far superior team in a tough league and getting MOTM in big games. However the old guys are not done yet and they still have something to offer. They have a lot of experience in big games that could still be of use. The young guys need a chance but they have to prove that they are better than what is here now rather than just having more potential.

Good call. Get that man a cap ASAP.

Who me or Hart. Not sure I know where my boots are. When does the flight leave....

[Golf Man]

Marmion - I think he's better than Boss now and I really don't think we should be planing on Reddan and Boss for the WC - bring him into the squad now, rather than throwing him in at the deep end next year if there are problems with Reddan and/or Boss (very similar to what is happening with Henshaw for example)

I would agree that we should not be relying on Boss and Reddan as options for the WC but Marmion might not be the answer. I think Hart would be ahead of him. He is playing for a far superior team in a tough league and getting MOTM in big games. However the old guys are not done yet and they still have something to offer. They have a lot of experience in big games that could still be of use. The young guys need a chance but they have to prove that they are better than what is here now rather than just having more potential.

Good call. Get that man a cap ASAP.

Be interested if anyone has actually seen him playing, rather than read reports - he wasn't offered a contract here, was kind of looked after by Jackman, but now seems to be going well. Marmion has probably twice as many games, more HC, U-20s etc etc. If he is good eneough Leinster will surely try to get him back - probably eyeing both of them up actually => McGrath might be ok but Cooney isn't going to cut it

[Fireworks]

On Toner - whether its psychology, or a detterant or nothing - it basically can't be proved at the moment. First two games the opposition lineout has been woeful. I can't see Hartley and co being detered by Toner being there and would expect them to play their own game. Its probably a combined effort - I think more use of POM (6ft 3") in the lineout has had as much impact as Toner (6ft 11") (on opposition ball). Personally I'd have POM jumping at the front on opposition ball and Toner and POC at the back - would really give them something to think about y

I like POM, and he's athletic at lineout time in a similar vein to Heaslip. Both are big guys but not the tallest either. Also no issue with you structuring the lineout with POM to front and Toner/POC at the back but to honestly suggest that POM has as much impact on opposition throw as Toner suggests you've been smoking crack! Come on the guy's sheer presence has an affect on the throw never mind the jumpers given the height he gives either jumping or lifting cannot be matched by any other player in the six nations. The hooker need to get serious height on his darts which inevitably leads to sloppy/poor posession even where you win the ball.

Now I'm not suggesting he's the best second row in the six nations merely that he has the greatest affect on opposition lineouts because you specifically have to plan around him rather than just going with moves you'd usually go to against normal lineouts with guys circa 6ft6".

1. Again the effect of Toners "presence" cannot be measured - its an assumption that may be fact or may not be - as I said we'll see if England try to avoid him or get spooked - Wales and Scotland were a shambles in the lineout, England won't be. On facts alone Toner doesn't steal much opposition ball - we might steal more elsewhere if they are avoiding him - there is however no evidence of this. If you look at the lineout stats for teh 2 games so far we have had 30 and won 28 (93.33% with Toner 11, POM 6, POC 4, Tuohy 2, Heaslip 3, TOD 2). We also have had 30 against us and have stolen/turned over 7 (Tuohy 2, POM, POC and Toner all 1, 2 not straight). Has Toner had a big impact in the lineout - of course he has - he should=! But it reads more like a real combined improvement (which is great to see). Its actually fair to say that Best/Cronin have had the biggest impact, especially given the issues that they have both had from time to time

2. Hearing a Leinster fan praising the lifting in the lineout - nice to see the concept/advantage of same being acknowledged finally!

Its been good so far and I've no complaints about Toner - he is deserving of his place - I do think that Tuohy, Ryan and Henderson will put huge pressure on him to partner POC though - which again is great to see

To the couple of posters whose first response to this announcement was to start trolling Munster fans - why bother?

GM you are living in a very dim past. Your argument is completely valid based on the stats you supplied and relied on. However in the modern game they are the tip of the proverbial iceberg. All of the guys are monitored by GPS and the games are dissected in video analysis to a level that Joe public is not aware of. This means that the coaches have a far more detailed view than the raw facts.

For example in some of the games POM had derisory tackling stats but that is not the job he was sent out to do. If he had tackled more he would probably have been in trouble with the coach. The coaches are well able to infer and calculate the effect of Toner in the lineout even if you cannot.

They are able to do this for each and ever guy who gets on. It is not about those simple stats that the fans are fed it goes way beyond that now. Data analysis has reached the point that Amazon can now predict if you are going to buy a particular book by your actions on their site and will start the shipping process before you click to purchase it. With this sort of technology available do you not think that they go a bit beyond your figures to decide if a player had an effect.

[TrapperChamonix]

Wilson targets 50 or 60 minutes for England
Read more at http://www.espnscrum.com/six-nations-20 ... 8eeCKIA.99

In 2012 we were still in touch after 50 mins. It all fell apart in the last 20.

I can't for the life of me remember a time when we wold have fancied a go at the English scrum (though we've had our moments) but its definitely a question in this England pack. Big opportunity for Healy to go at Wilson and McGrath at Thomas. Even on the other side, Marler (though hes improved) and Vunipola aren't great but at best you just see Ross holding his own.
Can we make it count?

[fourthirtythree]

Tuohy had a couple of lineout steals in his start didn't he?

For me the biggest single impact on our lineout is POC running it. Best's form seems to follow from that. When O'Connell went off against Wales our lineout wasn't so secure. If you're talking psychological impact - that's a biggie.

[simonokeeffe]

Wilson targets 50 or 60 minutes for England
Read more at http://www.espnscrum.com/six-nations-20 ... 8eeCKIA.99

In 2012 we were still in touch after 50 mins. It all fell apart in the last 20.

I can't for the life of me remember a time when we wold have fancied a go at the English scrum (though we've had our moments) but its definitely a question in this England pack. Big opportunity for Healy to go at Wilson and McGrath at Thomas. Even on the other side, Marler (though hes improved) and Vunipola aren't great but at best you just see Ross holding his own.
Can we make it count?

we can take that as Wilson expected to last 45 mins of an international and then Thomas sent on holding a picture of Padre Pio

RE changes:
Henderson: obvious as only fully fit 3rd lock in squad
Murphy: my guess is they are happier with POM covering 7 now or England offer much more limited/predictable attack in 7/10 channel but my main supposition is they want a more physical ball carrier off the bench (not saying TOD cant carry just saying IMO and guessing mgmt's Murphy is going to punch more holes/knock people over)

[paddyor]

Wilson targets 50 or 60 minutes for England
Read more at http://www.espnscrum.com/six-nations-20 ... 8eeCKIA.99

In 2012 we were still in touch after 50 mins. It all fell apart in the last 20.

I can't for the life of me remember a time when we wold have fancied a go at the English scrum (though we've had our moments) but its definitely a question in this England pack. Big opportunity for Healy to go at Wilson and McGrath at Thomas. Even on the other side, Marler (though hes improved) and Vunipola aren't great but at best you just see Ross holding his own.
Can we make it count?

I don't think that we'll get much out of Wilson but I'd fancy Healy or McGrath to get a few penos out of Thomas.

[fourthirtythree]

Wilson targets 50 or 60 minutes for England
Read more at http://www.espnscrum.com/six-nations-20 ... 8eeCKIA.99

In 2012 we were still in touch after 50 mins. It all fell apart in the last 20.

I can't for the life of me remember a time when we wold have fancied a go at the English scrum (though we've had our moments) but its definitely a question in this England pack. Big opportunity for Healy to go at Wilson and McGrath at Thomas. Even on the other side, Marler (though hes improved) and Vunipola aren't great but at best you just see Ross holding his own.
Can we make it count?

we can take that as Wilson expected to last 45 mins of an international and then Thomas sent on holding a picture of Padre Pio

RE changes:
Henderson: obvious as only fully fit 3rd lock in squad
Murphy: my guess is they are happier with POM covering 7 now or England offer much more limited/predictable attack in 7/10 channel but my main supposition is they want a more physical ball carrier off the bench (not saying TOD cant carry just saying IMO and guessing mgmt's Murphy is going to punch more holes/knock people over)

I wouldn't be massively surprised if Sean and Peter swapped jersey numbers for Ireland next year. Not that it would make any difference.