The looking forward to the Lions Tour thread

[CiaranIrl]

There was a good article yesterday in the ST by Stuart Barnes. He was making the point that it's not as simple as 'pick the form player' or 'pick the best players in each position'. That's the armchair view of matters, but it doesn't work out quite so neatly in practice.

Gatland needs to devise a plan that has a chance of beating the all blacks. He then needs to pick a squad that has the best chance of executing that plan. That might mean he brings wingers that have a brilliant aerial game (Kearney, say), or it might mean he picks massive backline players (North, say). He might just try to beat the sh!t out of them and kick your points (Halfpenny, say). He might try to dominate at lineout time (O'Mahony, say). He might really target the breakdown (Tipuric) or he might want sh!t loads of ball carrying forwards (Stander). Daly and North aren't necessarily in the same squad. Given the limited preparation time, maybe the best thing to do is to go for a clear strategy from the outset.

The list goes on beyond player skillsets. What about other qualities - do they learn & adapt quickly (Zebo?), follow orders well (Trimble?), do they have lions experience to lean on already (Bowe?), Do they have experience playing together as a unit? (Munster players in 09).

Picking these squads isn't straightforward. We'll definitely see a few surprises in there.

[Golf Man]

There was a good article yesterday in the ST by Stuart Barnes. He was making the point that it's not as simple as 'pick the form player' or 'pick the best players in each position'. That's the armchair view of matters, but it doesn't work out quite so neatly in practice.

Gatland needs to devise a plan that has a chance of beating the all blacks. He then needs to pick a squad that has the best chance of executing that plan. That might mean he brings wingers that have a brilliant aerial game (Kearney, say), or it might mean he picks massive backline players (North, say). He might just try to beat the sh!t out of them and kick your points (Halfpenny, say). He might try to dominate at lineout time (O'Mahony, say). He might really target the breakdown (Tipuric) or he might want sh!t loads of ball carrying forwards (Stander). Daly and North aren't necessarily in the same squad. Given the limited preparation time, maybe the best thing to do is to go for a clear strategy from the outset.

The list goes on beyond player skillsets. What about other qualities - do they learn & adapt quickly (Zebo?), follow orders well (Trimble?), do they have lions experience to lean on already (Bowe?), Do they have experience playing together as a unit? (Munster players in 09).

Picking these squads isn't straightforward. We'll definitely see a few surprises in there.

There is no doubt that some of that will come into consideration - I wouldn't overplay it though. He will want players to fit his gameplan, proven partnerships would be an advantage, Lions experience, experience & performance v NZ, form and proven quality. Even looking at all those you still end up with probably 30 of the 37 being the same no matter what. Of the remaining 7 or so, 5/6 will probably come from a group of 10/15 players. There might be one or possibly two who will be outside of that. I don't think Gatland will bring people along for what they might do, he will want to be comfortable that they will deliver and in their ability to step up- its a brutal tour. I think he'll go for plenty of bosh and plenty of kick/chase.

[Oldschool]

whats the opposite of a bolter? need to know what to call Biggar, hes on the express packet to Tonga

Nailed on.

[simonokeeffe]

whats the opposite of a bolter? need to know what to call Biggar, hes on the express packet to Tonga

Nailed on.

Other direction

[Oldschool]

whats the opposite of a bolter? need to know what to call Biggar, hes on the express packet to Tonga

Nailed on.

Other direction

Gatland nails - specialist nails imported from Wales.

[simonokeeffe]

Nah Gatty has cruelly overlooked him before

[fourthirtythree]

Nah Gatty has cruelly overlooked him before

Yeah, when he was the form pick for Wales Gatland looked elsewhere.

[Peg Leg]

whats the opposite of a bolter? need to know what to call Biggar, hes on the express packet to Tonga

Nailed on.

Other direction

A rash

[simonokeeffe]

Nah Gatty has cruelly overlooked him before

Yeah, when he was the form pick for Wales Gatland looked elsewhere.

for the last Lions tour my good man

He preferred Stuart Hogg as an outhalf to him

[matt]

Jaco Peyper ref for first Test - war, anything goes - pick your thugs.
Garces ref for second Test - neutralish, Itoje should definitely start.
Poite ref for third Test - Scrum the eff out of them.

Great comment Oldschool about Peyper but would not be surprised to see him give an early red card to a Lion. Have no confidence in him. About as bad as Barnes.

Out Half is probably the key position which will determine whether the Lions have any chance and if Sexton stays fit despite the inevitable attention he will get that will be a big positive but no 2 choice if he's injured is to move Farrell from 12 and that will disrupt things. Have not a clue who 3rd choice out half will be Russell, Biggar?

If you are looking for a controversial selection then it is likely to be Denny Solomona of Sale ex Rugby League and from Auckland. He has got 10 trys in 12 Premiership games for Sale and at 6'3" and very quick could be picked to mark Savea & would allow Gatland to pick his usual physically imposing test backline of 15 Watson/L.Williams 14 Solomona 13 Henshaw 12 Farrell 11 North 10 Sexton 9 Murray. Knowing Gatland I can see him keeping Hogg as an impact replacement.

Despite his lack of bulk if Ringrose is picked he has the class to force his way into the test team by the 2nd or 3rd test.

[Twist]

Jaco Peyper ref for first Test - war, anything goes - pick your thugs.
Garces ref for second Test - neutralish, Itoje should definitely start.
Poite ref for third Test - Scrum the eff out of them.

Great comment Oldschool about Peyper but would not be surprised to see him give an early red card to a Lion. Have no confidence in him. About as bad as Barnes.

Good point about potential cards. Seeing Peyper made me think Lawes might be a good pick, but I can see Peyper deciding that his thuggery isn't acceptable due to his jersey not being black.

Very disappointed with Peyper getting that game to be honest. What's he being rewarded for??

On another note - does anyone else think Paddy Jackson would be a good option? Assuming Farrell and Sexton both start the tests you need a reliable 10 for midweek who can also come off the bench. He can play a kicking or running game and his placekicking is superb.

I'm surprised he's not getting mentioned when Russell and Ford are

[ronk]

Well Ford has pushed Farrell to 12 for England.

Carbery might be a better bet than Jackson as a bolter.

[simonokeeffe]

Well Ford has pushed Farrell to 12 for England.

Carbery might be a better bet than Jackson as a bolter.

Not to split hairs but England having no 12s has pushed Farrell to 12 or Ford at 10 is better than any starting non Farrell 12

[erskinechilders]

Talk of Ben Te'o being included in the centres, telegraph reporting that Sinckler, Te'o are being included.

[matt]

Who do you think will be the bolter that is controversial at least - My guess is Denny Solomana.

Who do you think deserves to be picked but won't be - I think Ringrose.

Answers before Wednesday.

[erskinechilders]

My reckoning on the centres will be 5, excluding Farrell.

Robbie Henshaw ( 12/13 )
Jonathan Joseph,
Jonathan Davies ( began career as a 12 )
Ben Te'o ( 12/13 )
Garry Ringrose

[simonokeeffe]

Better Te'o than Jamie Roberts to be overly positive

[hugonaut]

Telegraph reporting that Hendo is in as well: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/ ... selection/

Sinckler ahead of Fagerson reeks of Rowntree sticking his oar in again, just like he did with the absolutely useless Matt Stevens ahead of Mike Ross in 2013.

[simonokeeffe]

Telegraph reporting that Hendo is in as well: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/ ... selection/

Sinckler ahead of Fagerson reeks of Rowntree sticking his oar in again, just like he did with the absolutely useless Matt Stevens ahead of Mike Ross in 2013.

but Stevens singing is not to be sniffed at

[CiaranIrl]

So two days out, do people agree:

The definite: McGrath, Best, Furlong, Stander, Murray, Sexton, Henshaw
The possible: O'Mahony, O'Brien, Healy, Zebo, Ringrose Edit: Henderson
The unlikely: Ryan, Toner, Heaslip, Kearney, Earls, Payne, Cronin