(2019) RWC Quarter-Final v New Zealand

[Pilotman123]

If Ireland are gonna wanna beat New Zealand, they’re gonna have to be better than any other Ireland team that has ever played before

[the spoofer]

Totally happy with Nige as the ref, as I'm sure Newzealand will be. Barnes and Nige are the best refs imo, even tho, i'd say there might have been a few Kiwis whinging if Barnes was the ref. New Zealand as brilliant as they are, are coming into this undercooked no matter what way you look at it. Apart from South Africa, they have not really been tested in a while. They have a lot of guys playing with not a lot of high pressure international knockout game experience and if Retallick starts, a guy who must be a bit rusty. I believe we have a better scrum and a more destructive pack in general. Sexton is better than Barrett according to at least world rugby. Im sure Joe will have put a lot of plans in place for the targeting of Sexton. Ireland will have to play at their very best to beat NewZealand, but new Zealand are going to have to play at their very best to beat Ireland. Its gonna be epic!

Nigel from about 2012/2014 was a very good ref. The current iteration is poor. He has decided that his idea of what the laws of the game should be is better than the actual laws. The non red card for the Saffa lad against Leinster last season was one of the worst calls you are likely to see.

[Twist]

Don't get the optimism around here. We've lost 4 times already this year. Now fair enough, there were enormous mitigating factors in Twickenham, but the manner of our under-performance was in keeping with our other bad days

Even our good days haven't been great. Shouldve thrashed France but we let them back into it. Blew Scotland away to start with then let them back into it. We even struggled to digest Russia! Our form has been poor, any other verdict is just spin


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[Peg Leg]

Don't get the optimism around here. We've lost 4 times already this year. Now fair enough, there were enormous mitigating factors in Twickenham, but the manner of our under-performance was in keeping with our other bad days

Even our good days haven't been great. Shouldve thrashed France but we let them back into it. Blew Scotland away to start with then let them back into it. We even struggled to digest Russia! Our form has been poor, any other verdict is just spin


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...

[artaneboy]

Don't get the optimism around here. We've lost 4 times already this year. Now fair enough, there were enormous mitigating factors in Twickenham, but the manner of our under-performance was in keeping with our other bad days

Even our good days haven't been great. Shouldve thrashed France but we let them back into it. Blew Scotland away to start with then let them back into it. We even struggled to digest Russia! Our form has been poor, any other verdict is just spin


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And I’m delighted that we have reached the mature/ delusional stage that we can match other tier 1 nations in both justified and unjustified optimism. It’s the only sane way to follow sport: DENIAL!


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[hugonaut]

Reasons to believe #2 - the weather & newbie wingers

It is predicted to be 18 degrees with significant rainfall (+4cms) across the afternoon and evening. (Yr.No)

Cue greasy surface and ball, Murray & Sexton keeping it tight. Cue POM back in preferred conditions.

Reece (22 yrs, 5 caps) and Bridge (24 yrs, 7 caps)

Cue aerial tests against Kearney, Henshaw, Earls and Ringer.

#Believe

Savea is a nightmare matchup for anybody, but particularly for O'Mahony. He's so fast, so explosive and a phenomenal tackle breaker. He's averaging more than 8m/carry [!] and more than 4 defenders beaten in the four games he has started at blindside. Stats below are taken from ESPN Scrum.com:

New Zealand (17) 23 - 13 (3) South Africa (FT) - RWC 2019 [source: http://en.espn.co.uk/statsguru/rugby/match/298218.html ]
K/P/R: 0/2/9
M: 42
CB: 1
DB: 5
O: 1

New Zealand (54) 92 - 7 (0) Tonga (FT) - Test Match [pre-RWC 2019] [source: http://en.espn.co.uk/statsguru/rugby/match/301282.html ]
K/P/R: 0/8/10
M: 163
CB: 5
DB: 4
O: 1

New Zealand (17) 36 - 0 (0) Australia (FT) - Rugby Championship 2019 [H] [source: http://en.espn.co.uk/statsguru/rugby/match/301257.html ]
K/P/R: 0/7/12
M: 62
CB: 2
DB: 4
O: 1

Australia (16) 47 - 26 (12) New Zealand (FT) - Rugby Championship 2019 [A] [source: http://en.espn.co.uk/statsguru/rugby/match/301737.html ]
K/P/R: 0/6/9
M: 60
CB: 1
DB: 4
O: 2

Excluding the Tonga game, it's still 5.5m/carry and better than 4 defenders beaten/game in the three games against Australia and South Africa. Over that four game spell at blindside he averaged over 12 tackles/game with a completion rate of 96%, and 7 passes+offloads/game. According to Rugbypass' statistics [source: https://www.rugbypass.com/international ... ea/matches ], he is responsible for winning 13 turnovers over those four games - two against SA, four against Tonga, six in the home match against Aus and one in the away game. Those aren't broken down into interceptions/breakdown jackals/strips, but it's a massive number.

O'Mahony's last four starts for Ireland at blindside listed below [he lined out at openside against Wales in the away warm-up game and against Russia in this tournament].

Japan (9) 19 - 12 (12) Ireland (FT) - RWC 2019
K/P/R: 1/2/4
M: 3
CB: 0
DB: 0
O: 0

Ireland (19) 27 - 3 (3) Scotland (FT) - RWC 2019 [injured after 26 mins]
K/P/R: 0/1/3
M: 2
CB: 0
DB: 0
O: 1

England (22) 57 - 15 (10) Ireland (FT) - Test Match [pre-RWC 2019]
K/P/R: 0/2/5
M: 7
CB: 0
DB: 0
O: 0

Wales (16) 25 - 7 (0) Ireland (FT) - Six Nations 2019
K/P/R: 1/4/3
M: 3
CB: 0
DB: 0
O: 0

Ireland (19) 26 - 14 (0) France (FT) - Six Nations 2019
K/P/R: 0/7/5
M: 0
CB: 0
DB: 0
O: 0

To be fair to POM and the fact that he was injured early against Scotland, I've included the statistics from his game against France in the Six Nations [his previous most recent start at blindside]. Again, according to RugbyPass's statistic's, he is responsible for 5 total turnovers won in those four games - two against Japan, one against Wales and two against France [source: https://www.rugbypass.com/six-nations/t ... ny/matches ].

The statistical comparison between the two players speaks for itself. O'Mahony is a very limited offensive threat: just over 4 carries/game at 0.76m/carry, with 0 defenders beaten and 0 clean breaks in four games. He has averaged 4 passes+offloads/game in that spell and has compiled a made 24/missed 4 tackle count [an 86% completion rate, an average of 6 made/1missed]. His lineout excellence is apparent - that spell saw him win an average of 5 Irish throws/game. But the cost of carrying him for that aspect of the game is high.

If you count our best performances in 2019 as 27-3 vs Scotland [RWC], 19-10 vs Wales [home warm-up], 26-14 vs France [6N], 47-5 vs Samoa [RWC], then you realise (a) it's not a strong list and (b) O'Mahony only played the majority of the game in one of them [vs France]. Stander played most of the game at blindside against Scotland and all of it against Wales, and Beirne played No6 against Samoa.

Against all that statistical evidence is the fact that POM had a blinder the last time we played NZ. How much is that worth? For me, it's worth his place in the matchday squad. I'd start with Ruddock at No6 and O'Mahony on the bench. I don't expect Joe will.

[Ruckedtobits]

Controlling the ball and controlling the match require us to have a line-out capable of winning our own ball and pinching one or two of theirs. They have three good second-rows or two and an unusually tall flanker in Barrett. They also have Kieran Read, now 35, but who had started to look old 11 months ago in Aviva. IMO, we will need to start with PO'M to ensure we can get our line-out ball from where we need it.

Leaving Ruddock on the bench will reduce our carrying and maul ability but if we get to 50 mins and we're in the game, he and Beirne can have a profound effect.

11 months ago, we kept the ball in hand and kept attacking them for almost 90 minutes. Yes, we kicked the odd box kick, but only for competition, largely by Kearney and Stockdale. We played with Marmion and McGrath without Murray. We played with Aki and Ringrose and without Henshaw. We played with JVdF, PO'M and CJ and Jordi contributed for 18 minutes.

But we targeted Retallick with our tackles. We tackled every NZ player and held on to them. Reid was pressured and made mistakes - remember his knock-on after blocking down Stockdale's chip and his knock-on in the final series of attacks?
Ireland can win this but it will need 23 MOTM performances and a lick of luck.

Wayne Barnes reffed the game in Aviva last November. Owens will want to give a similar display. It won't be faultless, but it won't be biased. He gets a better reception on and off the pitch here in Ireland than anywhere else and he likes the Irish players. Nigel is close to the end of his career, he will want to have been involved in another classic, not a controversy.

[olaf the fat]

But for Nigel a controversy is a classic.

He has let NZ off the hook against us twice.

[Oldschool]

Selecting Pom to start is too big a risk.
His lack of physicality and stamina will be exposed by a player like Savea who is in great form.
Ireland can beat NZ by once again being physical up front.
Pom made the match saving defensive intrusion because he was in the right place at the right time.
However, he was out of position at the time and usually is.
Pom doesn't do the grinding, pit face work, that is required of 6s. He spends a lot of time stationed between 12.5 and 13.5.
Maybe that is the way Joe wants him to play.
His lineout is an advantage but it's a trade off.
Beirne or Ruddock are better options at 6.
There is even an argument for starting CJ at 6 and either Jordi or Ruddock at 8.
Joe knows best but NZ need to be stopped up front and Pom isn't the kind of playing that can do that, in fact his tackling technique, given he's a six, is quite suspect and is one of the reasons he's suffered the odd concussion.
We won't beat NZ if Pom starts, Hansen is a good coach and will expose him.

[Oldschool]

Controlling the ball and controlling the match require us to have a line-out capable of winning our own ball and pinching one or two of theirs. They have three good second-rows or two and an unusually tall flanker in Barrett. They also have Kieran Read, now 35, but who had started to look old 11 months ago in Aviva. IMO, we will need to start with PO'M to ensure we can get our line-out ball from where we need it.

Leaving Ruddock on the bench will reduce our carrying and maul ability but if we get to 50 mins and we're in the game, he and Beirne can have a profound effect.

11 months ago, we kept the ball in hand and kept attacking them for almost 90 minutes. Yes, we kicked the odd box kick, but only for competition, largely by Kearney and Stockdale. We played with Marmion and McGrath without Murray. We played with Aki and Ringrose and without Henshaw. We played with JVdF, PO'M and CJ and Jordi contributed for 18 minutes.

But we targeted Retallick with our tackles. We tackled every NZ player and held on to them. Reid was pressured and made mistakes - remember his knock-on after blocking down Stockdale's chip and his knock-on in the final series of attacks?
Ireland can win this but it will need 23 MOTM performances and a lick of luck.

Wayne Barnes reffed the game in Aviva last November. Owens will want to give a similar display. It won't be faultless, but it won't be biased. He gets a better reception on and off the pitch here in Ireland than anywhere else and he likes the Irish players. Nigel is close to the end of his career, he will want to have been involved in another classic, not a controversy.

Beirne is well capable of nicking opposition lineout, is a far better ball carrier and has a far bigger engine than Pom.
Ruddock and Pom/Jordi on the bench are the better options.
Bottom line Pom is not an 80 minute man and fades quite badly during games.
He makes the odd big play, then goes quiet or missing but at least when he's missing, he's out in the sticks so that if play goes wide he's at least available to help as opposed to ruck inspecting that another player might indulge in.
If you watch his play during a game you will see him out wide, taking a break and waiting for the play to come his way again. You don't see it so much on TV but if you are at a game it's quite noticeable, if you are looking for it of course.

[IanD]

According to the BBC Cronin is out and Rob Herring has flown in.


https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/50072412

[MylesNaGapoleen]

If you watch (POM) his play during a game you will see him out wide, taking a break and waiting for the play to come his way again. You don't see it so much on TV but if you are at a game it's quite noticeable, if you are looking for it of course.

agreed. Although in the same breath...he was "taking a break" during the ABs game last November out wide and happened to be in the right place at the right time to turn, sprint and seize upon a great kick through, denying a certain try early for them in the 2nd half. IIRC it was the next phase that brought us the penalty that led to stockdales missive.

I would have POM on from the start and Beirne off the bench when POM starts blowing.

[jimbobjoe]

I'm no POM fan (far from it) but surely a stickler like Joe wouldn't have a player in his team that was off on the side taking a breather and letting the others do all the work. it just seems a bit odd that he'd tolerate that.

It's possible that he wants a forward out there to help someone if there's a loose turnover and prevent isolation or it's a bit of a ruse by luring the play that way with a bit of body languade misdirect (hands on the knees etc).

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I've mentioned this already but I really am quite worried that we're going to be lacking in leaders towards the end of the game. Whether we're ahead or behind or if it's close or not, I really don't like the idea of Best, Pom, and Sexton all going off. No doubt we'll want Sexton to play the full game, but history (and the make up of the bench if POM starts) tells us that they're all likely to be off, and Rob could potentially be off too if we need a score and bring Larmour on.

I know I'm guessing at the team a bit there but it's not hard to picture us starting with all the experienced guys and then floundering with the younger lads as we chase scores or try and soak up pressure.

[backrower8]

I've mentioned this already but I really am quite worried that we're going to be lacking in leaders towards the end of the game. Whether we're ahead or behind or if it's close or not, I really don't like the idea of Best, Pom, and Sexton all going off. No doubt we'll want Sexton to play the full game, but history (and the make up of the bench if POM starts) tells us that they're all likely to be off, and Rob could potentially be off too if we need a score and bring Larmour on.

I know I'm guessing at the team a bit there but it's not hard to picture us starting with all the experienced guys and then floundering with the younger lads as we chase scores or try and soak up pressure.

CJ is usually the next one up in the event that Best, Sexton & POM are all off the pitch. That doesn't give me any confidence. Rhys would be better and might be nominated ahead of him if he is on the pitch. Even Murray, Henderson or Ryan (potentially Captain in the 6N although Johnny will probably get the nod to allow Ryan a little longer without the pressure.

[Ruckedtobits]

I've mentioned this already but I really am quite worried that we're going to be lacking in leaders towards the end of the game. Whether we're ahead or behind or if it's close or not, I really don't like the idea of Best, Pom, and Sexton all going off. No doubt we'll want Sexton to play the full game, but history (and the make up of the bench if POM starts) tells us that they're all likely to be off, and Rob could potentially be off too if we need a score and bring Larmour on.

I know I'm guessing at the team a bit there but it's not hard to picture us starting with all the experienced guys and then floundering with the younger lads as we chase scores or try and soak up pressure.

Understand your concern but they've been together so long this group are breeding leaders. Kearney, Ringrose, Murray and Ryan are all part of the official leadership group. Add in Earls, Henshaw, Henderson, McGrath and CJ, all of whom show practical rugby "nous" and good communication skills. Jordi and Carberry are two more who will step up to make good decisions. I haven't seen enough of Stockdale or Furlong in match situations without the more senior players, to make an assessment. But overall, I'm not concerned about leaders departing when they've made their contribution.

[Pilotman123]

POM practically made us beat NZ last time, he’s world class at his best and hopefully he’ll be at his peak by Saturday

[Ruckedtobits]

Irish team as expected with RK and PO'M selected first up. There's a lot of successful experience against NZ in that Squad.

Personally delighted to see NZ leave out Crotty & Coles who are two regular winners. However, they have a very experienced bench which could have an impact if the game is as high-tempo as Hansen will want.

Joe Schmidt could only have dreamed about getting to this point with 12 of the guys who did the job 11 months ago. Let's hope they can seize the opportunity again.

[backrower8]

Ireland XV caps avg 59 vs 46 NZL.

NZL 2 x Centurions vs Ireland x 1

Ireland have 8 x 50+ cappers vs NZL 6

Ireland have nobody with sub 22 caps starting. Beirne with 12 on the bench

NZL have 4 sub-15 cappers. Their two wings are in single digits.

[dropkick]

I'm no POM fan (far from it) but surely a stickler like Joe wouldn't have a player in his team that was off on the side taking a breather and letting the others do all the work. it just seems a bit odd that he'd tolerate that.

It's possible that he wants a forward out there to help someone if there's a loose turnover and prevent isolation or it's a bit of a ruse by luring the play that way with a bit of body languade misdirect (hands on the knees etc).

POM defends the wide channels usually. People talk about 1 tackle but against Australia (who play with width) he was one of the top tacklers with 16 I think. NZ like to attack out wide too. Last year he caught a bouncing ball out wide which everyone raved about. It was a good catch but he was just doing his job.


One area where we've seen little of POM is in the lineout. I think he's going to be used a lot there at the weekend, especially attacking NZ's. Win an early one and Taylor will be under serious pressure. A bad lineout can really start undermining confidence of the whole team not to mention be a big disadvantage in terms of possession. With that in mind, its crucial the the Irish lineout does not malfunction.