RWC Quarter-Final v New Zealand

[Oldschool]

How are people feeling about this game? confident?

Nah. Not enough foreigners in the team.

Would feel more confident if Joe had taken a punt on JGP instead of McGrath.

[dropkick]

Nigel is the ref. NZ will be happy with him.

[Dexter]

Nigel is the ref. NZ will be happy with him.

[enby]

our players should be far more familiar with Owen and he owes us after 2013

[Oldschoolsocks]

our players should be far more familiar with Owen and he owes us after 2013

Nigel won’t care about his past infractions if it gets in the way of his story

[olaf the fat]

our players should be far more familiar with Owen and he owes us after 2013

And 2012 - 19 all and Nigel gives a bizarre penalty to NZ in front of our posts. (and both from when Nigel was on his game!)

Whatever slim chances we had are gone now...

[artaneboy]

How are people feeling about this game? confident?

Nah. Not enough foreigners in the team.

Would feel more confident if Joe had taken a punt on JGP instead of McGrath.

Well you know my feelings- but I honestly don’t think it will come down to that selection.

We will miss Jack Conan though. I may have blue-goggles on, but he and Josh bring a level of craft, hardness and smarts that for all the lopsided merits of POM and Stander (and they have a lot) they just can’t replicate in terms of balance against an NZ team.

But I’m hopeful!


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[The Doc]

So - the spread on the game is Ireland +12. But the outright odds on the game are about 5/1.

Seems quite long odds for a 12 point spread?

[artaneboy]

So - the spread on the game is Ireland +12. But the outright odds on the game are about 5/1.

Seems quite long odds for a 12 point spread?

Worth a tenner then.

I suppose the logic would be that we will run them close on the score by not conceding much with our defence- but don’t have the wherewithal to go and outscore them in attack.

We’ll see then- won’t we...


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[LeRouxIsPHat]

our players should be far more familiar with Owen and he owes us after 2013

And 2012 - 19 all and Nigel gives a bizarre penalty to NZ in front of our posts. (and both from when Nigel was on his game!)

Whatever slim chances we had are gone now...

The scrum penalty against us was the bigger crime IMO.

He was on my list of refs I didn't want but at least he'd have been at the lower end. I feel like this might influence the selection at 6, Owens would give Beirne the chance to poach whereas other refs might have negated his ability there.

[arsebiscuits1]

Nigel has a pretty frustrating quirk of seemingly reffing to a narrative.

If Ireland were to win this would be the biggest win in our history. Nigel is well aware of this and I think it would suit us. A lot of games he has reffed in recent years have been closer than they should be because the favourites have been kept down by some bizarre decisions.

I'd prefer Barnes but Nige would be my second choice over all the other options available in the context of the All Blacks game

[Morf]

Fla was talking about Nigel on House of Rugby saying he's very frustrating to a pro player/coach.

Quite unpredictable and will as mentioned value a narrative or sneaking in a one-liner/talking point over the actual events on the pitch.

It will be a free flowing game interjected by Nigel being Nigel with the former really seeming to favour NZ.

[Ruckedtobits]

Nigel has a pretty frustrating quirk of seemingly reffing to a narrative.

If Ireland were to win this would be the biggest win in our history. Nigel is well aware of this and I think it would suit us. A lot of games he has reffed in recent years have been closer than they should be because the favourites have been kept down by some bizarre decisions.

I'd prefer Barnes but Nige would be my second choice over all the other options available in the context of the All Blacks game

Don't believe for a moment that the Refs aren't in competition also for further progress. If Wales or England make the Final that's one way that Owens or Barnes will be rulled out. But the other way is by not producing a top class, unbiased, display in the Q/F games. Criticism at this point leaves no time for recovery.

Nigel is a crowd pleaser so the amount of reaction Irish fans can make on Saturday will be critical. This has a progressive impact on a Ref, not just a series of big decisions. In Nigel's case, he'll be working with one AR to whom he relates well and with Gardner with whom he only shares the right to have a whistle. Graham Hughes is a Northern English (Lancashire I think) TMO & ex-ref who doesn't have a blinkered view of NZ and will be prepared to give Nigel plenty of views on any query.

Everyone of the last four games we have played against NZ, the Ref has been crucial. Saturday will be no different and I'll be very surprised if either team wins by more than 9 poiints.

[backrower8]

Reasons to believe #1 - our superior defence

Apart from SA, New Zealand have played teams that are lower ranked (Canada 22nd & Namibia 23rd) than Ireland's opponents (Japan 7th, Scotland, 9th, Samoa 15th & Russia 20th). Despite this, New Zealand have a higher missed tackle rate than Ireland. 17% versus 11%.

They missed no less than 22% of their 126 against SA.

We have had to tackle more in both of our two matches against Tier 1 opposition than New Zealand did, yet we still have far superior tackle rate.

We missed just 6% of 135 tackles against Scotland and 10.5% of 171 against Japan. We have missed less despite having to make more tackles, 36% more in the game against Japan relative to their Boks match. OK, we lost, but that was without the World Player of the Year.

Their defence was last tested 2 weeks ago and last seriously tested all of 1 month ago, when they missed 28 tackles/ 22%.

So we have been to the well in defence twice and done better both times than their single big match oh so long ago!

#Believe

[Fireworks]

I had a theory which the loss to Jpan put a dent in. I thought that last year's 6n drop in form was part of the S&C development for the WC and the holding back of some plays and a new game plan. I thought that the limited game plan would be enough to see win our pool and lull the QF opposition into a false sense of confidence before unleashing the new game plan.

Then I woke up. I do think that something has been held back and I really hope it is enough to get past NZ.

I am happy with the ref as I trust that Best will be well able to manage him. I just hope that Sexton is kept away from him if there are any iffy calls.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Then I woke up.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Fla was talking about Nigel on House of Rugby saying he's very frustrating to a pro player/coach.

Quite unpredictable and will as mentioned value a narrative or sneaking in a one-liner/talking point over the actual events on the pitch.

That's how I see him but would have thought that teams had a better handle on him so am slightly surprised/worried to hear that coaches can be just as confused as we are.

One of Nige's favourite tricks is to completely ignore side entries (which is an epidemic at the moment but in his case I'm going back years) and then suddenly ping one late on when a team (usually the favourite playing away from home) is just making a comeback and then that kills it completely and the home fans love him for it.

Not sure if it's confirmed but think he might be retiring after the world cup so I'd expect him to go out with a bang. Barnes and Garces retiring too so lots of changes coming next year.

[backrower8]

Reasons to believe #2 - the weather & newbie wingers

It is predicted to be 18 degrees with significant rainfall (+4cms) across the afternoon and evening. (Yr.No)

Cue greasy surface and ball, Murray & Sexton keeping it tight. Cue POM back in preferred conditions.

Reece (22 yrs, 5 caps) and Bridge (24 yrs, 7 caps)

Cue aerial tests against Kearney, Henshaw, Earls and Ringer.

#Believe

[OTT]

One of Nige's favourite tricks is to completely ignore side entries (which is an epidemic at the moment but in his case I'm going back years) and then suddenly ping one late on when a team (usually the favourite playing away from home) is just making a comeback and then that kills it completely and the home fans love him for it.

This is so true.

Also he likes to totally disagree with the TMO decision on at least one occasion on something big like a high tackle or taking a man out in the air not because the evidence supports it but because he can, could result in a team losing a man cheaply or getting away with murder. How you fall on the right side of this is hard to calculate unfortunately.

[Experimental]

Totally happy with Nige as the ref, as I'm sure Newzealand will be. Barnes and Nige are the best refs imo, even tho, i'd say there might have been a few Kiwis whinging if Barnes was the ref. New Zealand as brilliant as they are, are coming into this undercooked no matter what way you look at it. Apart from South Africa, they have not really been tested in a while. They have a lot of guys playing with not a lot of high pressure international knockout game experience and if Retallick starts, a guy who must be a bit rusty. I believe we have a better scrum and a more destructive pack in general. Sexton is better than Barrett according to at least world rugby. Im sure Joe will have put a lot of plans in place for the targeting of Sexton. Ireland will have to play at their very best to beat NewZealand, but new Zealand are going to have to play at their very best to beat Ireland. Its gonna be epic!