HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts

[johng]

Ulster have never won a competitive game in France. Sarries have Embra at home who are as we have just seen pure gash. Ulster could end up away in the quarters.

[tackle-bag]

Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.

I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.

At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.

More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.

Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.

[Leezer]

anyone got a results predictor site??

[johng]

Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.

I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.

At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.

More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.

Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.

Like most French teams they hate losing at home. They are hard to beat there. We couldn't do it ourselves the year we won our first Heino. I'm not saying Ulster won't do it, I reckon they probably will, but Saracens will have an easier task putting 4 tries past Embra in where ever they call home next week.

[ceemec]

Ulster have never won a competitive game in France. Sarries have Embra at home who are as we have just seen pure gash. Ulster could end up away in the quarters.

I think Ulster could end up away from home even if they win. I expect Saracens to win with a BP. If that happens, Ulster need to win and score at least three tries to finish ahead of Saracens. They're 23 points behind on points scored so they won't beat Saracens in the tie breaker. They need to win with a BP in France really. Clermont, Toulon and Quins have three of the spots sewn up already with their massive try counts. I can see Ulster having to go away to Saracens in the QF.

[LastKnight]

Ulster have never won a competitive game in France. Sarries have Embra at home who are as we have just seen pure gash. Ulster could end up away in the quarters.

I think Ulster could end up away from home even if they win. I expect Saracens to win with a BP. If that happens, Ulster need to win and score at least three tries to finish ahead of Saracens. They're 23 points behind on points scored so they won't beat Saracens in the tie breaker. They need to win with a BP in France really. Clermont, Toulon and Quins have three of the spots sewn up already with their massive try counts. I can see Ulster having to go away to Saracens in the QF.

And of all away trips that's the one Ulster are best suited to. IMO.

Looks like it's Sarries home or away, more likely away. Injuries are now key for Ulster.

[desperado]

Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.

I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.

At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.

More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.

Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.

Like most French teams they hate losing at home. They are hard to beat there. We couldn't do it ourselves the year we won our first Heino. I'm not saying Ulster won't do it, I reckon they probably will, but Saracens will have an easier task putting 4 tries past Embra in where ever they call home next week.

that's what most worries me about the Toulon at MontP clash. Hope I'm wrong and T win (but not win too well!!)

[johng]

I suppose I should nail my colours to the mast.

Not sure if this is wishful thinking but.....

Quins 		28
ASM Clermont 	28
Toulon 		27
Saracens 		23
Ulster 		23
Toulouse 		22
Munster 		20
Leinster 		20

Ulster Sarries could easily be the other way round. But then again Munster and/or Leinster could easily be in the Amlin too.

[Schumi]

I suppose I should nail my colours to the mast.

Not sure if this is wishful thinking but.....

Quins 		28
ASM Clermont 	28
Toulon 		27
Saracens 		23
Ulster 		23
Toulouse 		22
Munster 		20
Leinster 		20

Ulster Sarries could easily be the other way round. But then again Munster and/or Leinster could easily be in the Amlin too.

Just went through the fixtures and had Ulster and Saracens reversed but everyone else the same. A return trip to the Stoop would be tasty. (that's blood in the smiley's mouth BTW).

[suisse]

I think we're gone. Montpelier will beat Toulon at home and Munster have a distinct advantage of knowing exactly what they gotta do on Sunday.

I have a horrible, sick feeling they will be the ones that knock us out. I think we'll both finish on 20 points, but they will pip us to the last spot by a single try. Thornley will talk about "one of those Thomand Park nights" and it will be at our expense.

Harlequins (28) v Munster (20)
Clermont (28) v Montpelier (22)
Toulon (24) v Leicester(20)
Saracens (23) v Ulster (23)

[StrangeButBlue]

I think we're gone. Montpelier will beat Toulon at home and Munster have a distinct advantage of knowing exactly what they gotta do on Sunday.

I have a horrible, sick feeling they will be the ones that knock us out. I think we'll both finish on 20 points, but they will pip us to the last spot by a single try. Thornley will talk about "one of those Thomand Park nights" and it will be at our expense.

Harlequins (28) v Munster (20)
Clermont (28) v Montpelier (22)
Toulon (24) v Leicester(20)
Saracens (23) v Ulster (23)

I agree with all those individual predictions, especially when you see Toulon probobly knowing a home qf only needs to lose by less than 21pts.
Only thing is the HC always throws up surprises - Something unlikely will happen, my guess is Glasgow vs N'Hampton which is useless to us but every year throws up something. Hopefully Leinster getting through on 10 pts after r4 is this years "story".

[[Jackass]]

My predictions:

Connacht Rugby v Zebre Connacht BP win

Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque v Harlequins Quins win - Biarritz LBP

Glasgow Warriors v Northampton Saints Northampton win

Castres Olympique v Ulster Rugby Ulster win

Cardiff Blues v Sale Sharks Cardiff win

Montpellier v Toulon Toulon win, Montpellier LBP

Exeter Chiefs v Leinster Rugby Leinster BP win (because it has to be )

Scarlets v ASM Clermont Auvergne Clermont BP win

Munster Rugby v Racing Métro 92 Munster BP win

Saracens v Edinburgh Rugby Saracens BP win

Leicester Tigers v Toulouse Toulouse win, Leicester LBP

Benetton Treviso v Ospreys Ospreys win

Group 1
Saracens 23
Munster 20

Group 2
Toulouse 22
Leicester 17

Group 3
Quins 28
Biarritz 15

Group 4
Ulster 23
Saints 18

Group 5
Clermont 28
Leinster 20

Group 6
Toulon 27
Montpellier 19

Quarter-Finals

EDITED - DID MY MATHS WRONG

Quins v Leinster
Clermont v Munster
Toulon v Toulouse
Ulster v Saracens

[[Jackass]]

And you know what the most ironic thing is?

Having lost to them twice, I wouldn't be surprised with a full strength team we went to Clermont and beat them!!

How much of a sickener would that be for them? We just can't avoid eachother and we'd keep fu*king them over when it counts!!*

EDIT - Did my maths wrong, but actually, works out better! Back to the stoop!!!

[VGE]

In 2001 and 2008, Clermont beat Toulouse twice and Toulouse beat Clermont at least.

But it was before the End of the World.



Au revoir.

[mikerob]

Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.

I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.

At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.

More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.

Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.

Like most French teams they hate losing at home. They are hard to beat there. We couldn't do it ourselves the year we won our first Heino. I'm not saying Ulster won't do it, I reckon they probably will, but Saracens will have an easier task putting 4 tries past Embra in where ever they call home next week.

Castres have played at home in the last round of the HEC 4 times in the last 6 seasons, and lost 3 times out of 4. That suggests they don't exactly bust a gut in this situation, but don't roll over either.

Sarries have the advantage of playing on Sunday so they will know exactly what they need to do to get a home QF, so I can see Ulster winning in Castres without a TBP, but then Sarries will know how many tries they need to overtake Ulster.

Ulster are currently on 12 tries scored, Sarries on 10.

[Fireworks]

If I have it right what we are looking for is:
Munster lose, draw, win with no bonus point
Toulouse win or draw
Toulon win or draw
With us getting the TBP of course.

Would be happy with going to the Stoop. Munster going to Clermont would be an interesting benchmark of where Munster are at the moment. I would fear for them. At this point I would be happy with any QF.

[Xanthippe]

If I have it right what we are looking for is:
Munster lose, draw, win with no bonus point
Toulouse win or draw
Toulon win or draw
With us getting the TBP of course.

Would be happy with going to the Stoop. Munster going to Clermont would be an interesting benchmark of where Munster are at the moment. I would fear for them. At this point I would be happy with any QF.

A Toulon draw with Montpellier is definitely not something we should be hoping for - we NEED Toulon to win as a draw will put both teams through.