Champions Cup 2020 - Standings\predictions

[johng]

Top 2 in Ulster's group already settled as neither of the English teams can catch the other 2. I'm guessing Clermont 25 and Ulster 21/22.

Exeter's group will likely only yield Exeter to the knockouts. Prob as a top 2 seed.

Toulouse group the same. Just Toulouse. Likely 3rd seed.

I fancy Northampton to win their last 2 games and get through with us.



The interesting group is Racing/Sarries/Munster.

Sarries and Munster will both likely take 5 points off the currently hapless Ospreys. Racing will probably beat Munster in Paris. Leaving the round 6 game between Sarries and Racing to decide a couple of things.

1/ Sarries probably will need just a BP of some sort to edge out Munster unless Munster get one in Paris. (Munster may end up regretting not kicking for a lbp in Sarries yesterday)
2/ Racing win it and they would get a home semi v Clermont. Lose it and they will probably be away to Clermont.

Would be great if Munster could surprise us all and win in Paris. I just don't see it though.

[MylesNaGapoleen]

Top 2 in Ulster's group already settled as neither of the English teams can catch the other 2. I'm guessing Clermont 25 and Ulster 21/22.

Exeter's group will likely only yield Exeter to the knockouts. Prob as a top 2 seed.

Toulouse group the same. Just Toulouse. Likely 3rd seed.

I fancy Northampton to win their last 2 games and get through with us.



The interesting group is Racing/Sarries/Munster.

Sarries and Munster will both likely take 5 points off the currently hapless Ospreys. Racing will probably beat Munster in Paris. Leaving the round 6 game between Sarries and Racing to decide a couple of things.

1/ Sarries probably will need just a BP of some sort to edge out Munster unless Munster get one in Paris. (Munster may end up regretting not kicking for a lbp in Sarries yesterday)
2/ Racing win it and they would get a home semi v Clermont. Lose it and they will probably be away to Clermont.

Would be great if Munster could surprise us all and win in Paris. I just don't see it though.

Feel for munster..missed drop goal against racing....and not taking the LBP penalty at the weekend. ouch. would love to see them knock out salarycens. looks unlikely now and I think you are right, mccall will roll out the big guns for the home game against racing.

My predictions after this weekend.

1 Leinster,
2 Exeter,
3 Toulouse,
4 Clermont,
5 Racing,
----------------------
6 Ulster,
7 Saracens,
8 Northampton


Which means we will probably meet the saints again...at home!

[Mickado]

Top 2 in Ulster's group already settled as neither of the English teams can catch the other 2. I'm guessing Clermont 25 and Ulster 21/22.

Exeter's group will likely only yield Exeter to the knockouts. Prob as a top 2 seed.

Toulouse group the same. Just Toulouse. Likely 3rd seed.

I fancy Northampton to win their last 2 games and get through with us.



The interesting group is Racing/Sarries/Munster.

Sarries and Munster will both likely take 5 points off the currently hapless Ospreys. Racing will probably beat Munster in Paris. Leaving the round 6 game between Sarries and Racing to decide a couple of things.

1/ Sarries probably will need just a BP of some sort to edge out Munster unless Munster get one in Paris. (Munster may end up regretting not kicking for a lbp in Sarries yesterday)
2/ Racing win it and they would get a home semi v Clermont. Lose it and they will probably be away to Clermont.

Would be great if Munster could surprise us all and win in Paris. I just don't see it though.

Feel for munster..missed drop goal against racing....and not taking the LBP penalty at the weekend. ouch. would love to see them knock out salarycens. looks unlikely now and I think you are right, mccall will roll out the big guns for the home game against racing.

My predictions after this weekend.

1 Leinster,
2 Exeter,
3 Toulouse,
4 Clermont,
5 Racing,
----------------------
6 Ulster,
7 Saracens,
8 Northampton


Which means we will probably meet the saints again...at home!

In that scenario, if we win our QF we'd play winner of ASM/Racing at home right? Or is that part of the draw made yet?

[MylesNaGapoleen]

My predictions after this weekend.

1 Leinster,
2 Exeter,
3 Toulouse,
4 Clermont,
5 Racing,
----------------------
6 Ulster,
7 Saracens,
8 Northampton


Which means we will probably meet the saints again...at home!

In that scenario, if we win our QF we'd play winner of ASM/Racing at home right? Or is that part of the draw made yet?

Yeah, I think you are correct. if we continue at the top 2 of the standings, an home quarter and semi final is sorted. I think this is the last season it works that way. Treviso away are not a gimme anymore..didn't we scrape a 0-3 away win there before christmas?
Very very long shot of munster pulling off a shock win against Salarycens this weekend. I think the entire rugby world outside the salarycens circle will be cheering on munster on sunday.

[The Doc]

Very very long shot of munster pulling off a shock win against Salarycens this weekend. I think the entire rugby world outside the salarycens circle will be cheering on munster on sunday.

It would be a very big shock indeed - given they are playing Racing

[Hornet]

My predictions after this weekend.

1 Leinster,
2 Exeter,
3 Toulouse,
4 Clermont,
5 Racing,
----------------------
6 Ulster,
7 Saracens,
8 Northampton


Which means we will probably meet the saints again...at home!

In that scenario, if we win our QF we'd play winner of ASM/Racing at home right? Or is that part of the draw made yet?

Yeah, I think you are correct. if we continue at the top 2 of the standings, an home quarter and semi final is sorted. I think this is the last season it works that way. Treviso away are not a gimme anymore..didn't we scrape a 0-3 away win there before christmas?
Very very long shot of munster pulling off a shock win against Salarycens this weekend. I think the entire rugby world outside the salarycens circle will be cheering on munster on sunday.

Nope. We beat Zebre 3-0

[johng]

Top 2 in Ulster's group already settled as neither of the English teams can catch the other 2. I'm guessing Clermont 25 and Ulster 21/22.

Exeter's group will likely only yield Exeter to the knockouts. Prob as a top 2 seed.

Toulouse group the same. Just Toulouse. Likely 3rd seed.

I fancy Northampton to win their last 2 games and get through with us.



The interesting group is Racing/Sarries/Munster.

Sarries and Munster will both likely take 5 points off the currently hapless Ospreys. Racing will probably beat Munster in Paris. Leaving the round 6 game between Sarries and Racing to decide a couple of things.

1/ Sarries probably will need just a BP of some sort to edge out Munster unless Munster get one in Paris. (Munster may end up regretting not kicking for a lbp in Sarries yesterday)
2/ Racing win it and they would get a home semi v Clermont. Lose it and they will probably be away to Clermont.

Would be great if Munster could surprise us all and win in Paris. I just don't see it though.

Feel for munster..missed drop goal against racing....and not taking the LBP penalty at the weekend. ouch. would love to see them knock out salarycens. looks unlikely now and I think you are right, mccall will roll out the big guns for the home game against racing.

My predictions after this weekend.

1 Leinster,
2 Exeter,
3 Toulouse,
4 Clermont,
5 Racing,
----------------------
6 Ulster,
7 Saracens,
8 Northampton


Which means we will probably meet the saints again...at home!

In that scenario, if we win our QF we'd play winner of ASM/Racing at home right? Or is that part of the draw made yet?

You are indeed correct Mick. Obviously depending on that exact scenario in that order.

[MylesNaGapoleen]

Racing overtaking Exeter yesterday makes the quarters a little more interesting...

1 Leinster
2 Racing
3 Exeter
4 Toulouse
5 Clermont
----------------------
6 Ulster (17)
7 Saracens (14)
8 Gloucester (14) - better score difference than Saints.
=================
9 Northampton (14)
10 Glasgow (12)

Which means the quarters look like this at the moment:

Leinster v Gloucester
Racing v Saracens
Exeter v Ulster
Toulouse v Clermont

And semi finals (Assuming home teams win quarters)
Leinster V Toulouse
Racing V Exeter

Some juicy games to look forward to next week....5 teams can potentially make the playoffs...and the Saracens v Racing game is probably the big one.

[betty swallocks]

It's six actually, as Munster technically could still finish second in their group. Unlikely, but possible.

[MylesNaGapoleen]

It's six actually, as Munster technically could still finish second in their group. Unlikely, but possible.

Fair point. BP win next week will put them on 16.
They cannot catch Ulster (17), but Saracens (14), Gloucester (14) and Saints (14) could be caught if some crazy results go their way.

[blockhead]

Saracens v Racing is the key game next week for those teams aspiring for a 2nd place qualification.
An unlikely Racing win would open up that possiblity for a number of teams including Munster.
Glocks will surely lose away in Toulouse, out.
Ulster couldn't possibly fup it up now, qualified in 6th.
Northampton away to Lyon looks harder after Lyon's performance in defense at the RDS. They will not want to lose at home.
Glasgow away to Sale? They wont get 5pts, should get 4.

If Saracens win.
1 Leinster
2 Toulouse
3 Exeter
4 Clermont
5 Racing
----------------------
6 Ulster
7 Saracens
8 Glasgow

If Racing win.
1 Leinster
2 Toulouse
3 Exeter
4 Racing
5 Clermont
----------------------
6 Ulster
7 Munster
8 Glasgow

[MylesNaGapoleen]

Saracens v Racing is the key game next week for those teams aspiring for a 2nd place qualification.
An unlikely Racing win would open up that possiblity for a number of teams including Munster.
Glocks will surely lose away in Toulouse, out.
Ulster couldn't possibly fup it up now, qualified in 6th.
Northampton away to Lyon looks harder after Lyon's performance in defense at the RDS. They will not want to lose at home.
Glasgow away to Sale? They wont get 5pts, should get 4.

If Saracens win.
1 Leinster
2 Toulouse
3 Exeter
4 Clermont
5 Racing
----------------------
6 Ulster
7 Saracens
8 Glasgow

If Racing win.
1 Leinster
2 Toulouse
3 Exeter
4 Racing
5 Clermont
----------------------
6 Ulster
7 Munster
8 Glasgow

Lyons team yesterday wasn't great...thought our sloppiness rather than their quality kept them in the game until the second half. With Lyon out, they will focus on the top14..they are 3 points adrift of bordeaux at the top. You maybe right about not wanting to lose at home but I reckon they will rest more players. They play toulon the following weekend.
I like your second scenario...where salarycens don't make it!

[Ruckedtobits]

One of the most significant aspects of home advantage, specifically for French teams, is control of the available camera angles for TMO use. It was evident in at least twice in the Racing game and at least once in the Clermont game.

EPCR must correct this anamoly before it becomes a federal issue.

[MylesNaGapoleen]

One of the most significant aspects of home advantage, specifically for French teams, is control of the available camera angles for TMO use. It was evident in at least twice in the Racing game and at least once in the Clermont game.

EPCR must correct this anamoly before it becomes a federal issue.

presume you mean once for the teddy thomas grounding....what was the other?
good job it didn't decide the outcome of the game...I thought it was completely unclear, the TT grounding, from the angles given, even though barnes said the on pitch decision was a try.

[blockhead]

One of the most significant aspects of home advantage, specifically for French teams, is control of the available camera angles for TMO use. It was evident in at least twice in the Racing game and at least once in the Clermont game.

EPCR must correct this anamoly before it becomes a federal issue.

presume you mean once for the teddy thomas grounding....what was the other?
good job it didn't decide the outcome of the game...I thought it was completely unclear, the TT grounding, from the angles given, even though barnes said the on pitch decision was a try.

Super Dave sorted all this out on the Munster Thread.

[Xanthippe]

One of the most significant aspects of home advantage, specifically for French teams, is control of the available camera angles for TMO use. It was evident in at least twice in the Racing game and at least once in the Clermont game.

EPCR must correct this anamoly before it becomes a federal issue.

presume you mean once for the teddy thomas grounding....what was the other?
good job it didn't decide the outcome of the game...I thought it was completely unclear, the TT grounding, from the angles given, even though barnes said the on pitch decision was a try.

It was both of Thomas' trys - first one for suspicion of being ahead of the kicker and second for grounding. There is an overhead camera, which was used several times for lineouts etc, and yet it was not used for two questionable decisions!

[blockhead]

If Exeter get a home QF next weekend as expected, they will be the 1st English team (apart from Saracens) to do so in 4 seasons.
That's some stat.

And it proves the old adage "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." because the Premiership is the best league in the world since it has relegation.
And the Pro14 is sh!t because it dosen't.
A there is no debate about that, apparently.

[wixfjord]

If Exeter get a home QF next weekend as expected, they will be the 1st English team (apart from Saracens) to do so in 4 seasons.
That's some stat.

And it proves the old adage "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." because the Premiership is the best league in the world since it has relegation.
And the Pro14 is sh!t because it dosen't.
A there is no debate about that, apparently.

Or you could look at that another way and say it's emblematic of the Pro14 team's (certainly Irish team's) ability to target European games because the league they play in is less competitive.

(I don't think anyone is arguing the top 4-5 teams in the Premiership are way better than the top 4-5 teams in the Pro14, but rather that the threat of relegation creates different priorities and means there's more riding on each individual game..)

[blockhead]

If Exeter get a home QF next weekend as expected, they will be the 1st English team (apart from Saracens) to do so in 4 seasons.
That's some stat.

And it proves the old adage "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." because the Premiership is the best league in the world since it has relegation.
And the Pro14 is sh!t because it dosen't.
A there is no debate about that, apparently.

Or you could look at that another way and say it's emblematic of the Pro14 team's (certainly Irish team's) ability to target European games because the league they play in is less competitive.

(I don't think anyone is arguing the top 4-5 teams in the Premiership are way better than the top 4-5 teams in the Pro14, but rather that the threat of relegation creates different priorities and means there's more riding on each individual game..)

AIL Div 2B- Only 10pts separate 1st from 7th after 10 games. Now that is a competitive league, standards are questionable but competitive? Absolutely!
Competitive does not mean good, just that the teams are about the same standard (apart from the top 2 in Prems case).
Chiefs, Sale, Glocks and Saints are not thinking of relegation. They're thinking of making the play-offs, just like the Irish teams in the pro14.

[Oldschool]

If Exeter get a home QF next weekend as expected, they will be the 1st English team (apart from Saracens) to do so in 4 seasons.
That's some stat.

And it proves the old adage "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." because the Premiership is the best league in the world since it has relegation.
And the Pro14 is sh!t because it dosen't.
A there is no debate about that, apparently.

Or you could look at that another way and say it's emblematic of the Pro14 team's (certainly Irish team's) ability to target European games because the league they play in is less competitive.

(I don't think anyone is arguing the top 4-5 teams in the Premiership are way better than the top 4-5 teams in the Pro14, but rather that the threat of relegation creates different priorities and means there's more riding on each individual game..)

That only applies to the teams at the bottom of the league because they are just not good enough.
Saracens won't be relegated this season because they are good enough to avoid relegation.
They'll probably even manage to qualify for next season's HCC.
Which fact tells us that the general standard of the PRL is pretty poor.