Watching the speculation and posturing of the Trump cheerleaders in US Financial markets on CNBC, CNN & Bloomberg as to whether the impact of CV19 would be a V, U, or L-shaped curve has been one of the major annoyances to me over the past fortnight. Yes, I have been told there is a remote control which facilitates changing channels, but watching market news is the nearest I have to live sports and the markets were the other part of my life for decades.
However, I'm now fairly convinced that they've all got it wrong and missed the letter of the alphabet which is most likely, W. The Governors of two of the wealthiest States, NY and Calefornia, are shouting from the rooftops that they are entering into huge catastrophies and nobody is listening. Both Governors have vast metropolitan areas with densely populated cities and minimal public health facilities and the Chief Medical Officier in each State is warning that their CV19 profile thus far, mirrors that of Lombardy and Madrid.
If the Big Apple and LA are impacted anything like Madrid, the media coverage, market effect and social impact will drive the US into a frenzy. If they are followed by Chicago and Atlanta, as some medico-social commentators are sugggsting, the US networks will make Trump a pariah and the consequences for the 300 million people in the US could be carnage.
Nobody in the published world of public health medicine has been able to offer a rational explanation thus far as to different impact of CV 19 in Lombardy and Madrid, compared say to Wuhan or Tokyo. Leave aside Singapore, or S Korea, or even Germany, where prior experience of SARS and excellent Public Health systems may have combined to quell the worst impacts. Why N Italy and the capital of Spain?
It's may be the aged population. It may be the relative population density. It may be multi-causal. Whatever it is, it has two CMOs in two of the most influential States in the US incredibly scared. I hope their worst fears are groundless but I must confess that the mindless rantings of the guy at the podium in the daily Press Briefings from the White House are doing little to convince me that he knows, or cares, what's really going on in NYC or LA. And that is scary.