Corona Virus

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paddyor
Shane Horgan
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

Oldschool wrote:Slaintecare Report.
51 pages of political aspirations.
In other words how to waste the taxpayer's money.
How about sorting out the ongoing waste first.
Example - We spending a fortune to the private hospitals at the moment.
What are we getting for that money.
We were told that the public hospitals were going to be used to handle COVID and the private hospitals would look after the rest.
Larry Goodman must be laughing all the way to the bank and not for the first time on public largesse.
What is the point of trying to force Consultants to take the A Contract.
Sort out their insurance costs first by legislating for claim costs.
The politicians solutions is to publish Slaintecare and then hand it over to the DOH and HSE to implement it.
Does anyone believe that is going to work.
The failure to advise the general public to wear face masks is a disgrace, particularly at this point in time given
A. The HSE has cornered the market for medical standard masks and you couldn't get one even if you wanted to.
B. That restrictions are being eased and there is a likely to be a rise in cases, face masks would reduce the risk of transmission.
Are the HSE aware that, if the wearing of facemasks reduces the rate of transmission then the demand on the health system will be reduced also IE less cases, less deaths.
Haven't read Slaintecare but 51 pages of bi-partisan policy goals is generally a good place to start. Figure out where you want to go and get everyone on board.

I think 120m per month for access to 4k hospital beds and staffing is a steal tbqh. That's a 40% increase in hospital beds for 1.5bn a year. Not sure of the ICU gain. They've had to refund health insurance so are in all likelihood losing money like every other business out there.

I think face masks will be a disaster. I've had people brushing by me like they're invincible. And it'll likely lead to increased touching of the face.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles

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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

paddyor wrote:
Oldschool wrote:Slaintecare Report.
51 pages of political aspirations.
In other words how to waste the taxpayer's money.
How about sorting out the ongoing waste first.
Example - We spending a fortune to the private hospitals at the moment.
What are we getting for that money.
We were told that the public hospitals were going to be used to handle COVID and the private hospitals would look after the rest.
Larry Goodman must be laughing all the way to the bank and not for the first time on public largesse.
What is the point of trying to force Consultants to take the A Contract.
Sort out their insurance costs first by legislating for claim costs.
The politicians solutions is to publish Slaintecare and then hand it over to the DOH and HSE to implement it.
Does anyone believe that is going to work.
The failure to advise the general public to wear face masks is a disgrace, particularly at this point in time given
A. The HSE has cornered the market for medical standard masks and you couldn't get one even if you wanted to.
B. That restrictions are being eased and there is a likely to be a rise in cases, face masks would reduce the risk of transmission.
Are the HSE aware that, if the wearing of facemasks reduces the rate of transmission then the demand on the health system will be reduced also IE less cases, less deaths.
Haven't read Slaintecare but 51 pages of bi-partisan policy goals is generally a good place to start. Figure out where you want to go and get everyone on board.

I think 120m per month for access to 4k hospital beds and staffing is a steal tbqh. That's a 40% increase in hospital beds for 1.5bn a year. Not sure of the ICU gain. They've had to refund health insurance so are in all likelihood losing money like every other business out there.

I think face masks will be a disaster. I've had people brushing by me like they're invincible. And it'll likely lead to increased touching of the face.
Maybe I'm just being old and cynical but when politicians vote in favour of spending a lot of money and don't query why we are where we are (before COVID) then I hear alarm bells, let's just throw money at the problem and say to the public "look we are going to spend xbn over ten years etc etc" that's two elections away and a lot can and has happened in the meantime.
We can have this discussion again in ten years time.

To be more precise - we've forked out 120m per month, what have we used the asset for, an insurance policy basically.
Which wasn't the stated reason for forking out 120m in the first place.

Would you prefer somebody brushing by you who isn't wearing a face mask because that's happening too.

The CMO and his team are basically treating the general population as if they are imbeciles (or at least with average IQs significantly lower that the rest of the EU's citizens) .
Some of them are but the majority aren't and will be quite able to put on, wear and take off face masks quite safely with a bit of practice. And now is the time to do it with the community R very low.
By way of explanation-
There are a number of Rs not just one.
The R in the Nursing and Care homes was multiples of 1 and may still be above 1 but dropping.
The R in the Health Worker Community must also be high if not greater than 1.
The R in other known clusters (meat factories for example) must also be quite high.
The cluster cases should be containable and unlikely to feed to any great extent into the general community.
The CMO and his team know the precise numbers, they know the situation with testing and any accuracy/reliability issues.
The other indicators are the number of people in hospital and ICU.

It also seems that now might be a good time to develop a little app which people could use assess there own vulnerability and perhaps get some general advice from said app.
A little bit like the BMI calculation which in fact would be one aspect of the app(given what has been pointed out by others)
Questions like - Height, Weight, Age, Sex, are you type 1 Diabetic, are you type 2 Diabetic and similar questions which are relevant COVID risk factors, is your job sedentary and so on.
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.

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paddyor
Shane Horgan
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

120m per month for 4k hospital beds and staff isn't a lot of money. Even if it's just an insurance policy. But yes I think this is a reflexive reaction on your part. Feel free to engage your brain and think about it. It takes more than 120m a month to run those hospitals and Larry Goodman is not laughing all the way to the bank. They planned for a disaster and managed to avoid it, that doesn't invalidate the plan. This is like arguing that cases fell after lockdown, thus proving we didn't lockdown.

The models are probably cr@p and unreliable given how incomplete the data they have is . Not something you'd hang your hat on in public. They have a certain utility in private but thats it.

The utility of an app is massively overstated. Good thread on it here. Even if you got 75% take up you'd still have R0>1.5

Good thread on it here.

https://twitter.com/Bugs_Meany/status/1 ... 25955?s=20
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles

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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

paddyor wrote:120m per month for 4k hospital beds and staff isn't a lot of money. Even if it's just an insurance policy. But yes I think this is a reflexive reaction on your part. Feel free to engage your brain and think about it. It takes more than 120m a month to run those hospitals and Larry Goodman is not laughing all the way to the bank. They planned for a disaster and managed to avoid it, that doesn't invalidate the plan. This is like arguing that cases fell after lockdown, thus proving we didn't lockdown.

The models are probably cr@p and unreliable given how incomplete the data they have is . Not something you'd hang your hat on in public. They have a certain utility in private but thats it.

The utility of an app is massively overstated. Good thread on it here. Even if you got 75% take up you'd still have R0>1.5

Good thread on it here.

https://twitter.com/Bugs_Meany/status/1 ... 25955?s=20
Not criticising the HSE for taking out an insurance policy, the opposite in fact.
The criticism is that they changed the story
An insurance policy was perfectly justified so why not just say so instead of the business as usual stuff.
Didn't see the need for the reflexive remark.
However you yourself might follow your own advice and reflect on why Luke O'Neil and McConkey etc are recommending the wearing of masks.
It's a fair bet with the country in lockdown and with little to do that the sort of app mentioned might get quite a high hit rate even if only a few people actually react to what it tells them.
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.

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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.

Ruckedtobits
Shane Jennings
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Ruckedtobits »

Another HSE v DoH clash re "under-reported" Covid cases. Back story of "leak" by a Dept official who may have targeted the Mater before. Journo who was given the "story" on Thursday well pissed-off to have been used to score points in internectine guerilla warfare.

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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Some more good news.
The noise on the M50 is up considerably this morning.
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MylesNaGapoleen
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by MylesNaGapoleen »

Oldschool wrote:
Some more good news.
The noise on the M50 is up considerably this morning.
that antibody test was approved weeks ago by the EU...!!

I wonder if the UK held off because they thought a test from public health england that claimed to be a "game changer" turned out to be 50% accurate....UK gov are looking for their money back now for the 3 million tests they ordered from them!!

not often I agree with Michael O leary but he was spot on this morning. the UK govs handling has been nothing other than shambolic. trains and tubes are packed...sardines style in the UK....yet the UK gov insist they have enough police officers to ensure people flying into the UK will stay at home for 14 days.

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domhnallj
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by domhnallj »

MylesNaGapoleen wrote:
Oldschool wrote:
Some more good news.
The noise on the M50 is up considerably this morning.
that antibody test was approved weeks ago by the EU...!!

I wonder if the UK held off because they thought a test from public health england that claimed to be a "game changer" turned out to be 50% accurate....UK gov are looking for their money back now for the 3 million tests they ordered from them!!

not often I agree with Michael O leary but he was spot on this morning. the UK govs handling has been nothing other than shambolic. trains and tubes are packed...sardines style in the UK....yet the UK gov insist they have enough police officers to ensure people flying into the UK will stay at home for 14 days.
I hadn't heard this claim before but it does fit with the lies, misuse of statistics and delusional narrative of English exceptionalism that gets trotted out at the daily briefing. Not even had they not gutted police numbers by 10k during the austerity years could they enforce this.
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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

A Dail committee will interview the CMO,. DOH and HSE head honchos today.
It's a fair bet that this will be a look back instead of a look forward.
Here's an alternative list of questions.

In no particular order.
1. Where you at with starting antibody testing.
2. 22 Countries that have opened schools have indicated that there has been no significant increase in cases, is it time to review your advice on this.
3. Have you already and/or are going to carry out random testing to establish the extent of COVID in the community at this point in time.
4. When will you carry out random antibody tests in the community to establish the overall extent of infection.
5. Reports from both France and England have suggested that COVID was present in their countries before Christmas.
Have you been able to establish if the CV was present here much earlier than the official date.
6. Notwithstanding the fact that we don't yet know how long immunity from CV lasts, have you got a team working on how to implement a herd immunity strategy, given that there is no vaccine exists yet and no guarantee that we will ever have one.
7. Have you done any comparative analysis on the damage that COVID is doing to the non COVID health of people.
8. Have you consider that without a strong economy the resources available to fight COVID will dwindle over time, incomes will be cut, jobs lost and as a result CV testing will be unaffordable.

Feel free to ask your own questions.
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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

COVID19 may have been in China as early as September.
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-ou ... an-1498566
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.

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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Approx half the cabinet are due to meet the CMO later in the week.
It's time to ambush Dr Tony.
A major issue (for businesses in particular) that is starting to emerge is the restrictiveness of the 2m distancing.
The WHO is recommending 1m.
There is an opportunity for Tony and the boys to have their cake and eat it here.
Reduce the distancing to 1m wherever possible but add the requirement to wear masks, public transport is an obvious one.

Apparently the N95 masks provided protection in both directions.
This might help to make air travel a lot safer and more attractive for anyone thinking about it.
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.

Ruckedtobits
Shane Jennings
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Ruckedtobits »

The debate / discussion / row between the HSE and Private Nursing Homes would be a fascinating spectacle if the underlying consequences did not involve the significant loss of lives.

The publication in today's Irish Times of a leaked HSE document purporting to list the number of deaths in more than 150 Private Nursing Homes has elicted widespread denials from owners as to the accuracy of the numbers, which include residents who died with confirmed or suspected Covid-19. For many, the overall responsibility for these deaths does not appear to be exclusively a problem for private owners. This is largely because of the presence of St Mary's Hospital in Phoenix Park in the top locations of deaths. St Mary's is a HSE Community Hospital and widely used by Mater & St James Hospitals (to name but two) as a preferred location for the transfer of patients, post-operative, for step-down care.

It appears to insiders that the case of St Mary's is an isolated abberation in the overall analysis of deaths in Nursing Homes / Community settings. The mortality rate here may have been a direct result of the HSE decision to decant patients from Mater & James' Hospitals and not needing ICU treatment, into St Marys.

Excluding St Marys from the debate, the picture is far more clear-cut. Private Nursing Homes had not invested adequately in PPE equipment pre-Pandemic; staffing qualifications and pay rates both lagged behind those in HSE settings; patient isolation facilities were more limited than in HSE homes; and anti-infection controls were sub-standard in many cases.

Nursing Homes Ireland, the umbrella body representing the majority of private owners launched, and have maintained a high-profile campaign to shift the blame onto the State, either HSE, Dept of Health or NPHEC. Tadgh Daly, their voluble spokesman has used corporate communication tactics to present the case that the State, not the owners, consistently ignored the best interests of the Nursing Home residents. This story has been pushed hard by Daly and it's probable that the leaked document in the media today is a direct response from the HSE.

One of the voices on the Dail Covid-19 Committee raised the question of the historic profits accumulated, and distributed, by the shareholders of these private companies. The same voice, that of a FG deputy from Louth, questioned whether some of those profits should have been used to provide better patient and staff protection and increased investment in anti-infection controls. This is the real focus of the story.

Nursing Homes have been major profit centres for wealthy owners in the US and Europe for two decades. Tight financial controls and enhanced focus on payment for every element of patient care and support, have been the primary management disciplines which optimise profitability but it has also included under-investment in equipment and care personnel which has resulted in the disasters now evident.

A final thought however is that it isn't a one-way street. Neither the Dept of Health, HSE or HIQA compelled the private Nursing Homes to have higher standards. The HSE shamelessly targeted recruitment of staff from the private locations. The HSE refused to share their limited PPE with the private establishments. The HSE, almost exclusively, focussed their efforts on protection of the Public Hospital capacity. This was the logical strategy, but it had untoward consequences which may not have been anticipated - theey were certainly not communicated before the event. Couple all of these elements with a marked political reluctance to interfere with this sector because of the social importance of the Fair Deal provisions.

All in all a real learning curve for matters of public service provision. Public Healthcare is not a precision exercise. It usually only gets focus or analysis in times of major emergency. However, from such times the experiencee must be taken that decisions driven exclusively from a medical, scientific or political perspective are likely to produce unintended consequences with mortal outcomes. The inherent profitability of private Aged Care cannot ignore the duty to recognise the latent risks which can only be mitigated by increased investment against these, occasional but inevitably, mortal risks. That is the moral duty of all private owners.

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ronk
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by ronk »

Private nursing homes are not like private schools or private hospitals where people pay a premium for a service they could get for free. The capacity isn’t there in public nursing homes.

Making a profit in the past does not make any business culpable for this disaster. They are regulated and part funded, if the regulations were inadequate then they should have been changed. I don’t think it would have been fair to expect them to maintain private stockpiles of PPE without the benefit of hindsight.

The government has a duty of care to the vulnerable people in this country whether they be in private schools, hospitals, care homes, the community or elsewhere.

There were people whose job it was to do something in a national emergency. Others got help, they didn’t, they needed it, the people who got sick and died needed it.

Maybe the private nursing homes should have done better (in aggregate), I don’t know, but the state definitely should have done more earlier.

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Oldschool
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Not sure if I said this before.
After 2008 the politicians managed to blame everyone else for the crash when they were probably the most culpable of all the parties involved.
It's going the same way with Nursing homes.
This time it's private enterprise who are being accused of being the big bad wolves.
Private enterprise are providing a service that the state couldn't because of the 2008 crash, even if they wanted to (another discussion altogether)
The HSE, which as Paul Reid has been quick to point out has no direct link with the Private Nursing Homes, is not an organisation that a large number of the population have any faith in.
If you doubt that statement then ask yourself why you (and/or so many others) have private health insurance.
If you want to take a very cynical view of things ask yourself why would any business play an active role in reducing the number of their customers.
They wouldn't and the point that the state agencies conveniently forgot was that the people in the private nursing homes are citizens of this country.
Any one who has a parent in a a nursing has my sympathy especially now.
It's never an easy decision to make.
It's said buying a house, car, getting married or changing job are the most stressful things you'll ever do in your life well you can add having to put a parent into a nursing home to that list.
Add in the extra complication of COVID and there are people climbing walls with worry about this.
To watch the politicians and people responsible playing pass the parcel is a disgrace.
I had to put my father into a nursing home 20 years ago and I can still remember the anguish I went through.
It was before fair deal so there were huge financial issues on top of the emotional side of it.
To listen to the politicians pontificating right now makes my blood boil.
Mistakes were made by everyone. For once can we just have honesty.
Money is the issue and will be for foreseeable future, say so and stop pretending that it isn't.
Deal with COVID19 now and prepare to deal with its' aftermath.
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.

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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Based on evidence to date it's starting to look like there is not going to be a second wave and even if there is that it's not going to be anything like as severe as the first wave.
Raises the question as to why?
Is the good weather having an impact.
The virus doesn't like the sun's UV but equally important is the boosted vitamin D levels in the population.
Is the number of actual cases a lot higher than the tested and reported. Could there be over 750,000 with Dublin having a disproportionate number of those cases.
Was COVID here a lot sooner than initially reported?
Is the fact that 50+% of the population has blood type O.
Does the flu jab or other jabs boosted resistance or mitigate the effects/symptoms.
Is the fact that children seem to be mostly unaffected down to the fact that they have all received jabs against against various other diseases.
Has the BCG jab (only stopped in 2015) given the younger generations additional resistant/protection/Mitigation of effects/symptoms.
And/or are there other factors involved.
I remember reading a long time ago that colds give the immune system a boost.
There has to be some as yet, unidentified process at work that seems to give 50% of the population protection such they don't even realize that they have COVID and a further 30% only have a mild reaction.
The remaining 20% regardless of age seem be susceptible to COVID.
Hopefully and probably a lot of people are trying to figure this out because there just doesn't seem to much evidence of a second wave anywhere in Europe.
Here's hoping anyway.
Maybe just wearing masks and maintaining reasonable social distancing is all it takes.
Ryanair pushing to get back in the air in July could well be the litmus test.
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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.

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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

A. Masks - there is an agenda here that everyone understands so stop putting lives at risk by downplaying the importance of wearing masks.
B. Swab tests - Cost €200. That seems outrageous. Why is it costing so much and what is being done to reduce the cost.
You can get a set of blood tests done in your local GPs for around €30 a pop.
No doubt the GAA and IRFU are getting paid for the use of Crocker and Aviva.
The €200 is also going to be used to try to deter flying.
€200 per test - unbelievable.
C. Track and trace.
Absolute load of codswallop.
The hospitals do their own testing and results come back promptly.
Test done in the field go to Germany.
How long is the waiting time from dispatch to results being returned.
Meanwhile.....wait....
What kind of contract has been signed with the German labs, how much is it costing.
Do the HSE care even, does Simon Harris or the government.
D. Child care - get on with it. It's quite obvious that the foot dragging is/has been quite intentional.
Done to force people to stay at home.
F. Testing, smear testing, but not just smear testing.
Why is it taking the HSE to adjust to the fact that the first wave is over.
Feet dragging. Everyone has played a role in protecting us from the HSE.
It's now time for the HSE to start acting like it cares about the health of the country's citizens.
G. Pray for rain.
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Oldschool
Cian Healy
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

The letter signed by a thousand scientists is divorced from reality.
The government seem to have at last realised that the skill set that our medical experts bring to the table doesn't include strategic thinking never mind a realistic assessment of what is feasible.
A more practical approach would be to adopt a strategy that will lead to herd immunity over time.
Difficult for sure but at least it would provide a solution.
The ambiguity regarding masks needs to stop.
Anyone who is not a health care worker should be actively seeking to obtain a set of masks that are fit for purpose.
For example if you intend flying, wear an N95 mask.
Going to Woodies, a decent quality cloth mask (two layers of cotton) is likely to be sufficient
Bottom line if I wear a mask I protect you and if you wear a mask you protect me.
If you wear a N95 mask then you are getting significant protection yourself.
Prevention should be the goal.
We wouldn't need to worry about protecting the HSE if we protected ourselves.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06- ... ovid-.html
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Oldschoolsocks
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Re: Corona Virus

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