Friday's rant

[Oldschool]

Britain is being pushed out? Don't be so dramatic, they chose to leave and the longer the UK delay the evoking of article 50, the greater the uncertainty in the markets etc. Right now the tail is wagging the dog, it's sh!t or get off the pot time for the UK. Of course the EU would rather they set out their stall as soon as possible, there is a whole continent waiting.

The UK are our ally and we should be urging the EU to look for solutions.
The EU are doing nothing to resolve the problem, quite the opposite.
That's a push and it smacks of arrogance.

Surely intervening in the affairs of a country leaving the EU would be arrogance?

England shat the bed.

Maybe you should put your question to the Greeks.

[Oldschool]

Britain is being pushed out? Don't be so dramatic, they chose to leave and the longer the UK delay the evoking of article 50, the greater the uncertainty in the markets etc. Right now the tail is wagging the dog, it's sh!t or get off the pot time for the UK. Of course the EU would rather they set out their stall as soon as possible, there is a whole continent waiting.

The UK are our ally and we should be urging the EU to look for solutions.
The EU are doing nothing to resolve the problem, quite the opposite.
That's a push and it smacks of arrogance.

No no OS, 48% of the voting electorate are our allies.
The solution is lines of demarkation and a swift resolution to the path they chose. They opted out so they could control their financial destiny, their boarder control and more than anything to make Great Britain, great again or some other tabloid b*%&!x.
The EU can't act (publically at least) to find a middle ground, without an instruction of intent from GB. So, yeah push them to offer that instruction so the debate can begin.

Just to get my head around this:
A member of a collected union of countries has elected to leave, with no roadmap for how they propose to do this. The government in power is doing everything it can to distance itself from drawing up that roadmap. An MEP from a minority/non existent political entity is using a seat on a commission that he canvased to reject, just so he can gloat and you think; that the commission that is serving the interests of the remaining union members (ahem *Ireland* ahem) by requesting that roadmap, are the arrogant party?

The Government or David Cameron to be more specific gave it everything to persuade his people to stay in.
They voted against that and as a result he is resigning. It takes time to elect a new leader and appoint a new government.
Anything Cameron did, could simply be over ridden, leading to more uncertainty.
The best thing all sides can do is to not add fuel to the fire.
Cameron has actually bought his own people time to perhaps come to their senses and find a way out of this mess, rather than the out at any cost to the cake eaters attitude of the EU.

[Oldschool]

Britain is being pushed out? Don't be so dramatic, they chose to leave and the longer the UK delay the evoking of article 50, the greater the uncertainty in the markets etc. Right now the tail is wagging the dog, it's sh!t or get off the pot time for the UK. Of course the EU would rather they set out their stall as soon as possible, there is a whole continent waiting.

It may be tail wagging the dog but that's because there is no effective leadership in London now. Cameron has handed in his papers and is waiting out his notice - effectively refusing to progress the matter. Nothing will probably happen until a new Tory leader is elected in September and the outcome is debated in parliament. Did to fact that labour is tearing itself apart and the whole thing is going from bad to worse.

Yup, it's a vacuum at the moment. But the point remains the same, the EU can do limited preparatory work/make public assurances because they don't know what is likely to happen. The UK could potentially delay this forever and the adjustment for markets will be slow and wary....
The UK with their lack of leadership is now leading the narrative. The public voted based on Cameron's promise to enact article 50 ASAP, not the first time a politician has reneged on a promise, but to me this stalemate is akin to having a cancerous tumor- there'll be no peace of mind until its removed. To continue the analogy- at least when it's removed you can asses what needs to be done to repair the wound.

There will be no winners if the UK leaves the EU and that surely is the only issue and how to prevent it actually happening.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Just for my benefit, how do you suggest "it actually happening" be prevented?

there was a democratic vote, the Leave side won the vote - what is the stratagem for and who enacts it?

[Peg Leg]

It may be tail wagging the dog but that's because there is no effective leadership in London now. Cameron has handed in his papers and is waiting out his notice - effectively refusing to progress the matter. Nothing will probably happen until a new Tory leader is elected in September and the outcome is debated in parliament. Did to fact that labour is tearing itself apart and the whole thing is going from bad to worse.

Yup, it's a vacuum at the moment. But the point remains the same, the EU can do limited preparatory work/make public assurances because they don't know what is likely to happen. The UK could potentially delay this forever and the adjustment for markets will be slow and wary....
The UK with their lack of leadership is now leading the narrative. The public voted based on Cameron's promise to enact article 50 ASAP, not the first time a politician has reneged on a promise, but to me this stalemate is akin to having a cancerous tumor- there'll be no peace of mind until its removed. To continue the analogy- at least when it's removed you can asses what needs to be done to repair the wound.

There will be no winners if the UK leaves the EU and that surely is the only issue and how to prevent it actually happening.

Yeah you're probably right there OS, but they've chosen to leave and they should be the ones begging to stay. Not vice versa.

[FLIP]

Just for my benefit, how do you suggest "it actually happening" be prevented?

there was a democratic vote, the Leave side won the vote - what is the stratagem for and who enacts it?

Changes in the relationship and the EU offered if the UK doesn't invoke Article 50, which would provide the democratic mandate for another referendum.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Just for my benefit, how do you suggest "it actually happening" be prevented?

there was a democratic vote, the Leave side won the vote - what is the stratagem for and who enacts it?

Changes in the relationship and the EU offered if the UK doesn't invoke Article 50, which would provide the democratic mandate for another referendum.

I don't see any way they could possibly force another referendum over there - unlike us sheep over this side of the Irish Sea who will just give up and vote yes if we keep on being asked - I honestly think that they would refuse to be asked the question again.

[FLIP]

Just for my benefit, how do you suggest "it actually happening" be prevented?

there was a democratic vote, the Leave side won the vote - what is the stratagem for and who enacts it?

Changes in the relationship and the EU offered if the UK doesn't invoke Article 50, which would provide the democratic mandate for another referendum.

I don't see any way they could possibly force another referendum over there - unlike us sheep over this side of the Irish Sea who will just give up and vote yes if we keep on being asked - I honestly think that they would refuse to be asked the question again.

Boris Johnson on the Leave side campaigned that a second referendum would be possible if the EU offered "improved terms". Given the 48% of Remain voters, and the percentage of regretful Leave voters, and a parliament full of pro EU MPs, a second referendum is very likely.

[Ruckedtobits]

The UK Referendum result is the catalyst for the current uncertainty. However, it revealed a totally unexpected factor, a significant sector of the UK electorate who wanted to give the Elites and Establishment a loud message.

Does that factor exist elsewhere?

Does Trump's progress through the US Primaries suggest that there might be an equivalent sector in the US population, who are, or will become, registered voters, in time for the Presidential Election? That event is in November and if Trump did triumph, it would provide a second catalyst of uncertainty.

Fast forward to 2017, not so far away, and a meeting of the G8 with The Donald, Putin and The Boris sitting center-stage with Mother Merkel. Francois Hollande attends, but has to leave early to continue his Presidential canvassing, now 15 points behind Mme Le Pen in the polls and in 3rd place behind M.Juppe.

None of these possibilities appear as unlikely as Brexit seemed this night week - Ladbrokes quoted 1/6 Remain, Leave 6/4. Many politicans, here, in the UK, but particularly in Europe, are behaving as if the major event of uncertainty, or change, has happened and it will be a single isolated event which will be catered for in due course, in some sort of ordered process.

But what if they're wrong? What of the opinions of the writers, philosophers and sociologists, who have been, largely unheard or unlistened to, postulating the evolution of a large, ignored part of the populace who have been isolated by globalisation and modern social media and communication change? What if these people are right? What if the faceless capitalists, who created the market forces which caused the Sub-Prime crash in the US, the Banking failures in Europe, the Euro crisis, the bankruptcy of Greece and the development of Quantitative Easing, have been allowed go too far?

Leicester City won the Premiership; Connacht won the Pro12; Iceland beat England in Euro 2016. None of these events were predicted by the "experts". Societies are complex entities, not simple organisms. Societies are not mere economies which behave to certain predictable codes of behaviour. Historians analyse the past, because it is impossible for them to predict the future.

Brexit may prove to be an isolated event. But history will also suggest that it could be the first of a chain of events which would reveal a real change in society. With globalisation now a reality, there are fewer reasons than previously to believe that such a fundamental change will be confined to only one small geographic part of our globalised (first) world.

Those who have control of the political levers in Europe and the US, should perhaps listen to some of the alternative opinions; should perhaps wonder if the outlook of some of the anti-establishment UK voters has some validity. The "experts" have been ignored. The "elite" have received a bloody nose. It would be well worth the time of anyone who believes they have the capacity to lead a nation, or a continent of nations, to consult the oracles, just in case there is real message from the wider society.

[Peg Leg]

Goddamned hippy

[Oldschoolsocks]

Boris Johnson on the Leave side campaigned that a second referendum would be possible if the EU offered "improved terms". Given the 48% of Remain voters, and the percentage of regretful Leave voters, and a parliament full of pro EU MPs, a second referendum is very likely.

But you're assuming that the leave camp actually campaigned in good faith and will allow themselves to be held to their slogans?

"More money for the NHS!!"

"We'll close the borders!!"

"We'll go again if the frogs and krautts roll over to our demands!!"

[FLIP]

Boris Johnson on the Leave side campaigned that a second referendum would be possible if the EU offered "improved terms". Given the 48% of Remain voters, and the percentage of regretful Leave voters, and a parliament full of pro EU MPs, a second referendum is very likely.

But you're assuming that the leave camp actually campaigned in good faith and will allow themselves to be held to their slogans?

"More money for the NHS!!"

"We'll close the borders!!"

"We'll go again if the frogs and krautts roll over to our demands!!"

Seeing as Boris Johnson's aims are to be prime minister and be reelected it is very much in his interest to stick to the majority of his slogans. Any Scottish independence won't happen until after another general election so there would be enough of a critical mass to vote a different government in.

[Peg Leg]

The UK Referendum result is the catalyst for the current uncertainty. However, it revealed a totally unexpected factor, a significant sector of the UK electorate who wanted to give the Elites and Establishment a loud message.

Does that factor exist elsewhere?

Does Trump's progress through the US Primaries suggest that there might be an equivalent sector in the US population, who are, or will become, registered voters, in time for the Presidential Election? That event is in November and if Trump did triumph, it would provide a second catalyst of uncertainty.

Fast forward to 2017, not so far away, and a meeting of the G8 with The Donald, Putin and The Boris sitting center-stage with Mother Merkel. Francois Hollande attends, but has to leave early to continue his Presidential canvassing, now 15 points behind Mme Le Pen in the polls and in 3rd place behind M.Juppe.

None of these possibilities appear as unlikely as Brexit seemed this night week - Ladbrokes quoted 1/6 Remain, Leave 6/4. Many politicans, here, in the UK, but particularly in Europe, are behaving as if the major event of uncertainty, or change, has happened and it will be a single isolated event which will be catered for in due course, in some sort of ordered process.

But what if they're wrong? What of the opinions of the writers, philosophers and sociologists, who have been, largely unheard or unlistened to, postulating the evolution of a large, ignored part of the populace who have been isolated by globalisation and modern social media and communication change? What if these people are right? What if the faceless capitalists, who created the market forces which caused the Sub-Prime crash in the US, the Banking failures in Europe, the Euro crisis, the bankruptcy of Greece and the development of Quantitative Easing, have been allowed go too far?

Leicester City won the Premiership; Connacht won the Pro12; Iceland beat England in Euro 2016. None of these events were predicted by the "experts". Societies are complex entities, not simple organisms. Societies are not mere economies which behave to certain predictable codes of behaviour. Historians analyse the past, because it is impossible for them to predict the future.

Brexit may prove to be an isolated event. But history will also suggest that it could be the first of a chain of events which would reveal a real change in society. With globalisation now a reality, there are fewer reasons than previously to believe that such a fundamental change will be confined to only one small geographic part of our globalised (first) world.

Those who have control of the political levers in Europe and the US, should perhaps listen to some of the alternative opinions; should perhaps wonder if the outlook of some of the anti-establishment UK voters has some validity. The "experts" have been ignored. The "elite" have received a bloody nose. It would be well worth the time of anyone who believes they have the capacity to lead a nation, or a continent of nations, to consult the oracles, just in case there is real message from the wider society.

Great post and apologies for the glib response earlier but I think your observing 2 extreme movements and seeing them as being one in the same- an opportunity to stick it to the man (big business/big government). The only common thread between Trump, Greece, Brexit & France is xenophobia.
Viewing the voting demographics:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ed-old-an/

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/st ... rogressive

You begin to see a picture that I think most expected. Older voters, lower paid voters, lower educated voters came out like never before (older voters aside). There are a few things to this and this is all personal opinion so don't expect stats. The lesser educated & lower paid voters generally do not participate in democratic votes to this extent. The turn out for this vote surpassed most in GB referenda & elections in the last 10 years. This was an opportunity to get their spoke in because they felt there was an opportunity to express dismay, so they went against the establishment in their droves. The irony being that if they participated regularly in the democratic process they would be less likely to have to get this sort of band wagon rolling. There would be a representative government debating proportionately on their behalf.
WRT to the older demographic.... we're all born on the far left and proceed right as we age in my view! But seriously, there is a perceivable xenophobia amongst a large demographic above 55 (opinion). My own mother would not see herself as a racist, but would single out a whole race as being different or ones to watch carefully. That is of an age a lot of us here are not compatible with. She thinks we're all young,soft, don't remember life after the war, the nazi's (always the nazi's) and the 80's. In essence she and a few of her friends believe we (by participating in the EU) are handing the keys of the kingdom to someone else.

Trump on the other hand is all about big business, the only thing he wants to do is broaden his tax base (yes he will attempt to penalise "American companies for being based offshore but I can't see how he can legally do that other than introduce higher corporation taxes and they are not all federally controlled) and build borders.


What we are seeing is the awakening of a new voting demographic- they need to be heard, but they need to be represented (all the time) also because right now (in the wake of brexit) they appear to engaged by unscrupulous politicians, who are lying to them about issues that they (the politicians) don't seem to fully understand in an effort to stoke the false flames of some bizarre ideals.

[Oldschool]

Purely as a starting point.
Immigration is a major issue. Those who resist immigration are immediately labeled racist.
It's far more likely that many of them have genuine fears and/or concerns.
There is a much simpler solution to the EU's current policy.
Introduce immigration quotas.
Remove the politics and PC from the equation and look at the problem from a sociological perspective.
The question to address (I would suggest ) is-
How many immigrants can a country absorb before it's core culture is damaged.
Get the EU to take that on board and you are into genuine problem solving.
Sociologists will have no problem telling you that they can do the analysis.
Will one size fit all? I've no idea but neither does the EU I suspect.

[kermischocolate]

And Boris won't be the next pm. You couldn't write the shambles that is British politics!

[ribs]

There was a good article last week that Cameron resigned to force Boris to decide if he wanted to be PM and mess it up, or not be PM and shut up.

[tate]

There was a good article last week that Cameron resigned to force Boris to decide if he wanted to be PM and mess it up, or not be PM and shut up.

Any chance you have a link for that?

Boris changed his tune so quickly on Europe it smacked of political opportunism

[Ruckedtobits]

Thanks Peg Leg and fair dos on the scope of your reading / research with those two items.

The perspective you outline is certainly appreciated. Anecdotal discussions suggest that many well educated, English people in the 35 - 50 age group, are strongly pro-Europe, but vehemently opposed to any progression of the "European Project" and increased influence for the Berleymont Dictators.

There is little doubt that it is precisely this group who are behind the clamour to insist on the UK making a rapid declaration under Article 50, so that they can get back to the day job of pushing the Project towards greater political integration.

However, the sheer range of unanticipated consequences from the Brexit decision, within a week of its occurrence, should be a cause for concern for all those who value democracy. Specifically, at least three major political figures, Cameron, Johnson and Corbyn look to have their careers behind them and others such as Osborne may have been irreperably damaged. Possibly Sturgeon and Farage have emerged with reputations enhanced, even if the latter is widely disparaged.

If Brexit has done any good (and that is very questionable), it might be in slowing the progress of the work of the "Berleymont Dictators" and focussing the minds of some of Europe's leaders on whether there is a real societal logic behind at least some of the Leave voters. Accepting the analysis of who they were and the characteristics they share, the underlying questions remains why, at this point, did they become motivated to act coherently and cause the most surprising voting upset of the past century?

If we don't learn how this occurred, there remains the prospect that it may re-occur. Who knows what the issue may be the next time.

[Oldschool]

Large scale immigration causes societal problems.
The EU is making decisions based on ideology rather than informatiom and proper analysis of the issue.
Some of you are right. There are more accidents waiting to happen.
The EU and the politicians need to learn from the message coming from the Brexit "incident".
They need to accept the fact that Britain is not the only EU state that has serious issues with how the EU does business.
Ireland is in a position to propose that an in depth scientific analysis of the impact of immigration on a society be carried out and that the EU act on the basis of this analysis.

[Hippo]

Immigration produces net economic benefits for societies, especially over a couple of generations. It's a matter of taking the longer view, but of course the longer view is rarely considered.