Corona Virus

[FLIP]

One of my suppliers has cancelled their IT conference in San Fran due to Coronavirus and are instead having it as an online event.

Here's hoping Amazon don't cancel their conferences lest I be without a business sponsored pissup.

In all seriousness though, in the current climate online conferences do make sense.

[cormac]

MAKO Vunipola is in self-isolation as a precaution due to coronavirus fears after flying back from Tonga via Hong Kong, will miss rest of 6 nations

He's back training with Saracens and will probably tog out for them at the weekend. They've consulted their own doctors and they say him and Billy are fine.

[blockhead]

That Italy v England game is going to be postponed, almost cetain.

[Oldschool]

WHO 25/02/2020

Situation report #36

Wonder what that map looks like that now?

[johng]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
Map with tracker

You could use this link which Paddy provided on page one.

You could also click on the link under the pic you quoted to the reddit which contains links to this and also a google doc which tracks the virus cases

[Oldschool]

The UK is moving from Contain to Delay mode.
Would we be better off just going to Delay sooner (like now), given that it's almost inevitable that we're headed to "delay" anyway.
Or even selective Delay, ban flights from Northern Italy.
Sure if someone really wants to come here they will but if it deters a significant % of people then that's surely the purpose achieved.

[The Doc]

The UK is moving from Contain to Delay mode.
Would we be better off just going to Delay sooner (like now), given that it's almost inevitable that we're headed to "delay" anyway.
Or even selective Delay, ban flights from Northern Italy.
Sure if someone really wants to come here they will but if it deters a significant % of people then that's surely the purpose achieved.

I'm not sure you understand what "delay" means. Banning flights would be an attempt to contain, not delay.

In fact, "delay mode" often means reducing measures around airports / inbound traffic and transferring resources to other areas. In effect it is stating that the attempt to prevent it entering the general population is over. Closing schools, advising offices to have people work from home and essentially reducing personal contact is what delays the broader spread

[suisse]

I live in a country that's greatly affected by this virus. At the time of writing, there are 6088 cases, 42 deaths (surpassed MERS) and 88 people have made a full recovery. Over 140,000 people have been tested and 21,000 are in quarantine/waiting for results. The 88 full recovery number is interesting. The recovery % is much lower than Italy or Iran but this is partly down to the authorities' tightened rules in comparison to other places. They don't want someone to be reconfirmed if it was due to an early release (but that has happened and that person, a 78 year old, has now been released twice). Yesterday there were over 28,000 people in quarantine. Today, around 7,000 have received negative results.

The Korean authorities are testing between 9-10,000 people every day. The daily confirmed cases numbers are gruesome because of that. There's no other country in the world with the capability to test 10,000 people per day (yet) with the possible exception of China. 100 countries have imposed travel bans on Koreans because they see 500+ confirmed cases per day. That's understandable. But it could be down to the fact their testing is just superior to everywhere else that they are getting to the infected quicker. But we don't know for certain. There are drive through clinics like a McDonald's here. The drive thru can't confirm 100% if you HAVE corona but it will rule it out if you don't. If there's an issue, you're immediately brought to a major hospital for further testing. Results in Korea are returned within 6 hours. The global average is over 12 hours. This might read like sheer propaganda BS from me, and that's fine. But the ability to mobalise doctors, health experts, specialist staff, establish zones just for testing etc has been incredible. The government is on the verge of collapse for a variety of reasons but, so far, this looks like a well coordinated effort.

The population of Seoul proper is around 10,000,000. There are 108 confirmed cases. The population of the metro area is 22,000,000. There are 240 confirmed cases. But the national total is 6,088. The cult down in Daegu has blown open the issue of Corona. I don't know if the Irish government could do more accept for limiting/banning flights. Airport screening doesn't work fully because some people don't show the symptoms for weeks, if at all. But one thing I don't get is the lack of information on a confirmed case. Here, if someone within a 12km radius of me is confirmed, we get...
1. The gender 2. The age. 3. The nationality. 4. Where the person works (not always company name, sometimes just the building name) 5. Any coffee shop, clinic, cinema, bookstore etc s/he visited in the last few days. All sent via an emergency text message. Whilst writing this, I got a pop up about a confirmed case in the Sinsa area of the city. The text detailed the 3 buses the person took on March 2nd from 9am to 16.15. I like getting this info. Some people hate it.

There is panic buying of masks and now there are no masks. But this isn't uncommon. Air quality is dreadful every Feb and March so stores regularly run out. Schools are closed and a lot of people are working from home. But the streets are still busy, restaurants are packed and the supermarkets are full of stock. I hate that this is a thing. I was due to get married next month but we had to postpone. My parents are old and it is a risk not worth taking. I don't care about the wedding. There are hundreds if not thousands in the same situation and dozens a lot worse off. Illness, death, getting laid off etc.

I worry about so many people back home because I don't know if the health system could manage a major outbreak like here, and this will eventually struggle too. Take care everyone.

[Peg Leg]

WHO 25/02/2020

Situation report #36

Wonder what that map looks like that now?

This

[Peg Leg]

I live in a country that's greatly affected by this virus. At the time of writing, there are 6088 cases, 42 deaths (surpassed MERS) and 88 people have made a full recovery. Over 140,000 people have been tested and 21,000 are in quarantine/waiting for results. The 88 full recovery number is interesting. The recovery % is much lower than Italy or Iran but this is partly down to the authorities' tightened rules in comparison to other places. They don't want someone to be reconfirmed if it was due to an early release (but that has happened and that person, a 78 year old, has now been released twice). Yesterday there were over 28,000 people in quarantine. Today, around 7,000 have received negative results.

The Korean authorities are testing between 9-10,000 people every day. The daily confirmed cases numbers are gruesome because of that. There's no other country in the world with the capability to test 10,000 people per day (yet) with the possible exception of China. 100 countries have imposed travel bans on Koreans because they see 500+ confirmed cases per day. That's understandable. But it could be down to the fact their testing is just superior to everywhere else that they are getting to the infected quicker. But we don't know for certain. There are drive through clinics like a McDonald's here. The drive thru can't confirm 100% if you HAVE corona but it will rule it out if you don't. If there's an issue, you're immediately brought to a major hospital for further testing. Results in Korea are returned within 6 hours. The global average is over 12 hours. This might read like sheer propaganda BS from me, and that's fine. But the ability to mobalise doctors, health experts, specialist staff, establish zones just for testing etc has been incredible. The government is on the verge of collapse for a variety of reasons but, so far, this looks like a well coordinated effort.

The population of Seoul proper is around 10,000,000. There are 108 confirmed cases. The population of the metro area is 22,000,000. There are 240 confirmed cases. But the national total is 6,088. The cult down in Daegu has blown open the issue of Corona. I don't know if the Irish government could do more accept for limiting/banning flights. Airport screening doesn't work fully because some people don't show the symptoms for weeks, if at all. But one thing I don't get is the lack of information on a confirmed case. Here, if someone within a 12km radius of me is confirmed, we get...
1. The gender 2. The age. 3. The nationality. 4. Where the person works (not always company name, sometimes just the building name) 5. Any coffee shop, clinic, cinema, bookstore etc s/he visited in the last few days. All sent via an emergency text message. Whilst writing this, I got a pop up about a confirmed case in the Sinsa area of the city. The text detailed the 3 buses the person took on March 2nd from 9am to 16.15. I like getting this info. Some people hate it.

There is panic buying of masks and now there are no masks. But this isn't uncommon. Air quality is dreadful every Feb and March so stores regularly run out. Schools are closed and a lot of people are working from home. But the streets are still busy, restaurants are packed and the supermarkets are full of stock. I hate that this is a thing. I was due to get married next month but we had to postpone. My parents are old and it is a risk not worth taking. I don't care about the wedding. There are hundreds if not thousands in the same situation and dozens a lot worse off. Illness, death, getting laid off etc.

I worry about so many people back home because I don't know if the health system could manage a major outbreak like here, and this will eventually struggle too. Take care everyone.

Take care suisse!

[The Doc]

I live in a country that's greatly affected by this virus. At the time of writing, there are 6088 cases, 42 deaths (surpassed MERS) and 88 people have made a full recovery. Over 140,000 people have been tested and 21,000 are in quarantine/waiting for results. The 88 full recovery number is interesting. The recovery % is much lower than Italy or Iran but this is partly down to the authorities' tightened rules in comparison to other places. They don't want someone to be reconfirmed if it was due to an early release (but that has happened and that person, a 78 year old, has now been released twice). Yesterday there were over 28,000 people in quarantine. Today, around 7,000 have received negative results.

The Korean authorities are testing between 9-10,000 people every day. The daily confirmed cases numbers are gruesome because of that. There's no other country in the world with the capability to test 10,000 people per day (yet) with the possible exception of China. 100 countries have imposed travel bans on Koreans because they see 500+ confirmed cases per day. That's understandable. But it could be down to the fact their testing is just superior to everywhere else that they are getting to the infected quicker. But we don't know for certain. There are drive through clinics like a McDonald's here. The drive thru can't confirm 100% if you HAVE corona but it will rule it out if you don't. If there's an issue, you're immediately brought to a major hospital for further testing. Results in Korea are returned within 6 hours. The global average is over 12 hours. This might read like sheer propaganda BS from me, and that's fine. But the ability to mobalise doctors, health experts, specialist staff, establish zones just for testing etc has been incredible. The government is on the verge of collapse for a variety of reasons but, so far, this looks like a well coordinated effort.

The population of Seoul proper is around 10,000,000. There are 108 confirmed cases. The population of the metro area is 22,000,000. There are 240 confirmed cases. But the national total is 6,088. The cult down in Daegu has blown open the issue of Corona. I don't know if the Irish government could do more accept for limiting/banning flights. Airport screening doesn't work fully because some people don't show the symptoms for weeks, if at all. But one thing I don't get is the lack of information on a confirmed case. Here, if someone within a 12km radius of me is confirmed, we get...
1. The gender 2. The age. 3. The nationality. 4. Where the person works (not always company name, sometimes just the building name) 5. Any coffee shop, clinic, cinema, bookstore etc s/he visited in the last few days. All sent via an emergency text message. Whilst writing this, I got a pop up about a confirmed case in the Sinsa area of the city. The text detailed the 3 buses the person took on March 2nd from 9am to 16.15. I like getting this info. Some people hate it.

There is panic buying of masks and now there are no masks. But this isn't uncommon. Air quality is dreadful every Feb and March so stores regularly run out. Schools are closed and a lot of people are working from home. But the streets are still busy, restaurants are packed and the supermarkets are full of stock. I hate that this is a thing. I was due to get married next month but we had to postpone. My parents are old and it is a risk not worth taking. I don't care about the wedding. There are hundreds if not thousands in the same situation and dozens a lot worse off. Illness, death, getting laid off etc.

I worry about so many people back home because I don't know if the health system could manage a major outbreak like here, and this will eventually struggle too. Take care everyone.

Take care suisse!

+1 - and thanks for taking the time to write it up

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Take care suisse, hope you get to have a great wedding soon!

[Oldschool]

I live in a country that's greatly affected by this virus. At the time of writing, there are 6088 cases, 42 deaths (surpassed MERS) and 88 people have made a full recovery. Over 140,000 people have been tested and 21,000 are in quarantine/waiting for results. The 88 full recovery number is interesting. The recovery % is much lower than Italy or Iran but this is partly down to the authorities' tightened rules in comparison to other places. They don't want someone to be reconfirmed if it was due to an early release (but that has happened and that person, a 78 year old, has now been released twice). Yesterday there were over 28,000 people in quarantine. Today, around 7,000 have received negative results.

The Korean authorities are testing between 9-10,000 people every day. The daily confirmed cases numbers are gruesome because of that. There's no other country in the world with the capability to test 10,000 people per day (yet) with the possible exception of China. 100 countries have imposed travel bans on Koreans because they see 500+ confirmed cases per day. That's understandable. But it could be down to the fact their testing is just superior to everywhere else that they are getting to the infected quicker. But we don't know for certain. There are drive through clinics like a McDonald's here. The drive thru can't confirm 100% if you HAVE corona but it will rule it out if you don't. If there's an issue, you're immediately brought to a major hospital for further testing. Results in Korea are returned within 6 hours. The global average is over 12 hours. This might read like sheer propaganda BS from me, and that's fine. But the ability to mobalise doctors, health experts, specialist staff, establish zones just for testing etc has been incredible. The government is on the verge of collapse for a variety of reasons but, so far, this looks like a well coordinated effort.

The population of Seoul proper is around 10,000,000. There are 108 confirmed cases. The population of the metro area is 22,000,000. There are 240 confirmed cases. But the national total is 6,088. The cult down in Daegu has blown open the issue of Corona. I don't know if the Irish government could do more accept for limiting/banning flights. Airport screening doesn't work fully because some people don't show the symptoms for weeks, if at all. But one thing I don't get is the lack of information on a confirmed case. Here, if someone within a 12km radius of me is confirmed, we get...
1. The gender 2. The age. 3. The nationality. 4. Where the person works (not always company name, sometimes just the building name) 5. Any coffee shop, clinic, cinema, bookstore etc s/he visited in the last few days. All sent via an emergency text message. Whilst writing this, I got a pop up about a confirmed case in the Sinsa area of the city. The text detailed the 3 buses the person took on March 2nd from 9am to 16.15. I like getting this info. Some people hate it.

There is panic buying of masks and now there are no masks. But this isn't uncommon. Air quality is dreadful every Feb and March so stores regularly run out. Schools are closed and a lot of people are working from home. But the streets are still busy, restaurants are packed and the supermarkets are full of stock. I hate that this is a thing. I was due to get married next month but we had to postpone. My parents are old and it is a risk not worth taking. I don't care about the wedding. There are hundreds if not thousands in the same situation and dozens a lot worse off. Illness, death, getting laid off etc.

I worry about so many people back home because I don't know if the health system could manage a major outbreak like here, and this will eventually struggle too. Take care everyone.

Very comprehensive.
Thanks and stay safe.

[paddyor]

https://twitter.com/BenSweeneyF1/status ... 3867652098

The case for patient confidentiality.

[Oldschool]

That decision to postpone the Ireland v Italy game is starting to look like a very good one.
Will it stop Italian fans from travelling anyway is a key question.
If some of them do travel how will the risk they pose be tackled (pun intended).

[Oldschool]

https://twitter.com/BenSweeneyF1/status ... 3867652098

The case for patient confidentiality.

I don't think case is made.
Who treated the person in question like a leper.
Were they abused, it's not very specific.
Not arguing that it wouldn't or couldn't happen btw.

[Oldschool]

Rumour has it that one of the men from the East got sick about two days after returning from a skiing in Italy.
Was seen walking into a number of shops prior to taking ill.
Needless to say that the place where he lives is abuzz.
Taken away by people in white suits and quite ill apparently.
So if you have just flown in from a ski resort in Italy what precautions should you be taking for yourself and others, not least your loved else.
This man's spouse is likely to be treated like a leper in terms of contact but will she be abused.
I'll keep you updated if I find out because as has been intimated, it's our sympathy and support, more than anything else that people need who find themselves in this situation.

[paddyor]

That decision to postpone the Ireland v Italy game is starting to look like a very good one.
Will it stop Italian fans from travelling anyway is a key question.
If some of them do travel how will the risk they pose be tackled (pun intended).

Many will travel IMO. there will be massively reduced risk with the game not going ahead. The restaurant industry is on its knees as people go about self isolating and cancelling dinner plans. If you want to get dinner in the chophouse it’s empty tomorrow. We’re not shutting down the economy just yet.

I think when the dust settles on this the mortality rate will be less than 1%, somewhere closer to .5%. The Italian death rate is currently 4.2% but if you include a very other case in Europe (the virus entered thru Germany but north Italy with c40m people and loads of skiers is where it took off) including EEA and balkan states, it goes down to 2.9%. It’s only .7% in the EU26 and .6% in the EEA. So far it seems skiing holidays(younger people) seems to be the main source of the spread so that portends a lower mort rate. Even then though it seems like the Italians are missing a few cases(we are too).

[blockhead]

Women's Six Nations: Scotland v France postponed after home player tests positive for coronavirus

[paddyor]

Rumour has it that one of the men from the East got sick about two days after returning from a skiing in Italy.
Was seen walking into a number of shops prior to taking ill.
Needless to say that the place where he lives is abuzz.
Taken away by people in white suits and quite ill apparently.
So if you have just flown in from a ski resort in Italy what precautions should you be taking for yourself and others, not least your loved else.
This man's spouse is likely to be treated like a leper in terms of contact but will she be abused.
I'll keep you updated if I find out because as has been intimated, it's our sympathy and support, more than anything else that people need who find themselves in this situation.

There’s nothing on the Worldometers site about critical cases just yet. Per Italy 50% of cases require hospital treatment.

I think people are maybe overreacting re the shops. It can only survive in the environment for about 12 hours. It’s R0 is estimated to about 1-2. Meaning you’re likely to infect 1-2 people without isolation measures. Measles has an R0 of 15 which means once an outbreak starts anyone without a vaccine will likely catch it. If he’s been I’ll since 2 days since Italy he’ll have been mostly isolated and whatever he did early doors after Italy should be limited.