Corona Virus

[Peg Leg]

Hopefully this will put manners on Joe Tomane if nothing else.

PSA proper rugby people are fuxked

[Oldschool]

To be immunologically fit, you also need to be physically fit. White blood cells can be quite sluggish. Exercise mobilises them by increasing blood flow in your body, so they can do their surveillance jobs and seek and destroy all over your body. Adults should be physically active in some way every day, and do at least 150 minutes a week of moderate aerobic activity (hiking, gardening, cycling) or 75 minutes of vigorous activity (running, swimming fast, an aerobics class). Either suffice.

[Oldschool]

It's a bit early but people who get CV and recover are a valuable resource.
How should they be used.
Commandeered so to speak.

[Oldschool]

First hint in the media (it's called preparing us for the eventual bad news) that we might be heading for an economic depression.
Was listening to one of the radio channels yesterday.
Heard the most ridiculous comment from one of the contributors regarding the banks giving people moratoriums on their mortgage repayments.
"Perhaps landlords should consider doing the same for their tenants".
There's zero chance of a landlord getting that money back. I'm not a landlord or a tenant but let's just say I've had second hand experience.
I have been both a landlord and tenant in the past and wasn't impressed with either experience.
The banks always come out in front.

[Ruckedtobits]

In very broad terms in First World economies, consumers are responsible for c.60% of the gross turnover of the S&P 500 or the FTSE or Euro Stox companies. Various economists have examined how much of consumers' expenditure is actually discretionary and the answer is that the wealthier the nation, the higher the %.

Thus, if we effectively get a total shutdown for 3 months, we lose 25% of discretionary consumer expenditure or gross turnover of the largest companies in the world. As the long-term analysis broadly excludes the huge IT companies such as Apple, Google, Samsong and Amazon etc and they are now the most valuable companies in the world (and may not suffer turnover reductions to the same proportion), it's reasonable to speculate that the First World economy might suffer a reduction in turnover in 2020 of the order of 10-15% for every 3 mths of economic turmoil that is experienced.

There are countless economic models running as we speak in every Central Bank, Bank, Stockbroker and Equity Fund in the western world and probably many AI programmes who will have more accurate prognoses. However, the theory of large numbers probably means that a 15% fall in First World ecenomic activity will definitely constitute a very substantial recession. How long this turmoil lasts will determine whether it results in a Depression.

[paddyor]

First hint in the media (it's called preparing us for the eventual bad news) that we might be heading for an economic depression.
Was listening to one of the radio channels yesterday.
Heard the most ridiculous comment from one of the contributors regarding the banks giving people moratoriums on their mortgage repayments.
"Perhaps landlords should consider doing the same for their tenants".
There's zero chance of a landlord getting that money back. I'm not a landlord or a tenant but let's just say I've had second hand experience.
I have been both a landlord and tenant in the past and wasn't impressed with either experience.
The banks always come out in front.

The banks don't want houses, they want lenders. It's in their interest to suspend or abate mortgage repayments not to mention the wider economy if we want to avoid a depression. And it should be done formally, on a case by case basis, so as to give people comfort that they aren't about to run out of cash in the near future. That's what causes depressions.

Landlords (commercial and residential) are a great example of the cascade effects here. Pubs/restaurants are forced to stop trading and claim force majeur for a rent abatement. So options are either
1)agree to the abatement and take a hit
2)Contest and seek to terminate the lease

If there's a loan against the property the landlord will have to cover that cost out of there own pocket whether they seek to go down route 1 or 2 . In the event of 2 you could be talking 1-2 years before you get the tenant out and a new one in and possibly longer if there's a recession and business lending is killed. On top of that the civil courts are closed for the forseeable future so ou're probably waiting 2-3 months before you can lift a finger. That cash will come from the rest of the economy because a huge part of the economy won't be generating anything. All of this basically feeds back to the financial system because of if there's less money in the bank then they can't lend as much. So the options are take the short term hit or damn the consequences and pay the solicitors a fortune to sort it out. The taxman takes the biggest third party hit.

You can rework that same process for employees of those businesses. Their takehome will be roughly 2/3rd of what it was before this thing hit. So their discretionary spending is gone. As a landlord you can either agree to a short term reduction or you can seek to re take the apartment in 9-12 months(takes 6 months to get an eviction notice processed without an influx of cases) while they pay nothing. Taxman, again the hardest hit.

[paddyor]

In very broad terms in First World economies, consumers are responsible for c.60% of the gross turnover of the S&P 500 or the FTSE or Euro Stox companies. Various economists have examined how much of consumers' expenditure is actually discretionary and the answer is that the wealthier the nation, the higher the %.

Thus, if we effectively get a total shutdown for 3 months, we lose 25% of discretionary consumer expenditure or gross turnover of the largest companies in the world. As the long-term analysis broadly excludes the huge IT companies such as Apple, Google, Samsong and Amazon etc and they are now the most valuable companies in the world (and may not suffer turnover reductions to the same proportion), it's reasonable to speculate that the First World economy might suffer a reduction in turnover in 2020 of the order of 10-15% for every 3 mths of economic turmoil that is experienced.

There are countless economic models running as we speak in every Central Bank, Bank, Stockbroker and Equity Fund in the western world and probably many AI programmes who will have more accurate prognoses. However, the theory of large numbers probably means that a 15% fall in First World ecenomic activity will definitely constitute a very substantial recession. How long this turmoil lasts will determine whether it results in a Depression.

Would those numbers really be that uniform? Like it'd be higher in the summer and lower in the winter for tourism etc. Or vice versa for skiing resorts?

[suisse]

@Suisse.
I trust you have avoided the CV so far.
The hunch is that Cork has proportionately, significantly, more cases than the rest of the country.
(Reported yesterday 21 cases in the East, 13 in the South indicates this)
If that were the case (or another location) should Cork be isolated from the rest of the country.
Is that the type of thing that happened in South Korea.
Or even certain districts in a large city.
Also is there any information about what is happening in North Korea.

I have not contracted the virus. Neither has my wife, any of her family, neither of our friends or colleagues. I've heard her mention someone's friend living somewhere else has it but the details are always sketchy. In other words, not a single person we know around us has a confirmed case. Of course, I could have it now but don't know I do....who knows. Some data released yesterday showed of the 8000 cases, 60 were foreign nationals. Over 50% were Chinese and the rest largely made up of 'factory workers' from Vietnam, Uzbekistan and Thailand. No Irish and no Brits. I personally know some people were were scared in late February and they left. They went back to the UK; USA and Canada. Even single person expressed their regret at doing so. There are no easy decisions. People are panicking. I wish my parents would come here. They are older. They're considered high risk. If they get sick at home.......like I'm sure every one you about your older parents, I worry a lot. It f%~king sucks.

Our apartment building, and all those in our neighbourhood, has an inbuilt PA system hooked up to the local district office. Or town hall. Whatever. If there is a confirmed case within this district, we get an announcement. It tells us when the patient was reported sick and the places s/he visited locally, like that gym, the coffee shop, those shops etc.

The problem with isolation is if word gets out before it is enforced, you have to assume people will get really scared and they'll flee. There's not a lot you can other than trust people to be smart. Listen to the advice of experts. Stay inside. Limit your social contacts drastically. They didn't isolate any of the severely hit cities here. They didn't even reduce the transport links to and from the city of Daegu - which, as of today, combined with the province around it, accounts for 7,300 of the nationwide 8320 total. They sent down a ridiculous number of doctors, equipment, testing machines and tore through the city testing as many as pososnle. Finally....today.....Daegu and province are not returning the highest number of daily confirmed cases. It took almost a month.

I have no idea what's happening in North Korea. No-one talks about it because we have our own sh!t to deal with. The government has denied sending masks and then denied not sending masks. But because there's no open border, there's no NK related panic. South Korea is basically an island. Like Ireland. You can't enter by any means other than boats and planes. There's probably a lot Ireland can learn but I don't know. Stay home. Stay safe.

[Peg Leg]

At some stage this will have to change from lockdown of everyone to just older or immunocompromised. This can't go on for months, the whole capitalist market will collapse and it will be just Bezos and Gates buying up the remnants.

[Oldschool]

At some stage this will have to change from lockdown of everyone to just older or immunocompromised. This can't go on for months, the whole capitalist market will collapse and it will be just Bezos and Gates buying up the remnants.

You are exactly right.
The 80% that are healthy need to get the CV asap as in asap. Reopen the pubs etc in a week.
Arrange mass gatherings in the Point.
Make sure the 60 pluses have enough food for six to eight weeks and it'll be done and dusted.
Can't see it happening or if it's socially acceptable.
The moral issues are the ones to be teased out and it's simply a case of which ones.
People are going to die, the cut in point is when our health system reaches breaking point.
As you say if the economy is so f¢cked by taking the slow boat then more people will die as a result of that.
The 30% new cases needs to have meat put on it by someone outside the government but in the know and respected.
In 9 weeks time 2m will be infected but we won't have the figure for a week later.
Whatever number of people the government announce as being positive today, means double that figure are infected because in a weeks time they'll be "sick"
Said it already, the people coming clear of the virus and have immunity are the key. We need more of them and quickly.
These people can safely deliver food and essentials to the 20% who need to be totally isolated.
It could be over in less than ten weeks or peeking in ten weeks.
Boris might have had a point but made badly.
It might only work on an island, we're an island.

[Ruckedtobits]

At some stage this will have to change from lockdown of everyone to just older or immunocompromised. This can't go on for months, the whole capitalist market will collapse and it will be just Bezos and Gates buying up the remnants.

You are exactly right.
The 80% that are healthy need to get the CV asap as in asap. Reopen the pubs etc in a week.
Arrange mass gatherings in the Point.
Make sure the 60 pluses have enough food for six to eight weeks and it'll be done and dusted.
Can't see it happening or if it's socially acceptable.
The moral issues are the ones to be teased out and it's simply a case of which ones.
People are going to die, the cut in point is when our health system reaches breaking point.
As you say if the economy is so f¢cked by taking the slow boat then more people will die as a result of that.
The 30% new cases needs to have meat put on it by someone outside the government but in the know and respected.
In 9 weeks time 2m will be infected but we won't have the figure for a week later.
Whatever number of people the government announce as being positive today, means double that figure are infected because in a weeks time they'll be "sick"
Said it already, the people coming clear of the virus and have immunity are the key. We need more of them and quickly.
These people can safely deliver food and essentials to the 20% who need to be totally isolated.
It could be over in less than ten weeks or peeking in ten weeks.
Boris might have had a point but made badly.
It might only work on an island, we're an island.

Your logic would be valid if the medical advice was certain that re-infection cannot occur and we had a test which clearly showed who had had Covid 19 (perhaps asymtomatically). Unfortunately we neither have that test yet or the certainty it does not re-occur. China has at least two cases of re-occurence and Korea one (according to UK medics.

So, too early to make strategic decision to cocoon the aged and vulnerable yet but coming soon

As an aside, how come we have done 6,000 + tests on people medically suspected of having the virus i.e. those who were referred for tests were either sent by Doctors or as a result of proximity to a positive case, and yet we have only 292 cases?

Are these numbers out of kilter with anticipated infection rate?

[Oldschool]

At some stage this will have to change from lockdown of everyone to just older or immunocompromised. This can't go on for months, the whole capitalist market will collapse and it will be just Bezos and Gates buying up the remnants.

You are exactly right.
The 80% that are healthy need to get the CV asap as in asap. Reopen the pubs etc in a week.
Arrange mass gatherings in the Point.
Make sure the 60 pluses have enough food for six to eight weeks and it'll be done and dusted.
Can't see it happening or if it's socially acceptable.
The moral issues are the ones to be teased out and it's simply a case of which ones.
People are going to die, the cut in point is when our health system reaches breaking point.
As you say if the economy is so f¢cked by taking the slow boat then more people will die as a result of that.
The 30% new cases needs to have meat put on it by someone outside the government but in the know and respected.
In 9 weeks time 2m will be infected but we won't have the figure for a week later.
Whatever number of people the government announce as being positive today, means double that figure are infected because in a weeks time they'll be "sick"
Said it already, the people coming clear of the virus and have immunity are the key. We need more of them and quickly.
These people can safely deliver food and essentials to the 20% who need to be totally isolated.
It could be over in less than ten weeks or peeking in ten weeks.
Boris might have had a point but made badly.
It might only work on an island, we're an island.

Your logic would be valid if the medical advice was certain that re-infection cannot occur and we had a test which clearly showed who had had Covid 19 (perhaps asymtomatically). Unfortunately we neither have that test yet or the certainty it does not re-occur. China has at least two cases of re-occurence and Korea one (according to UK medics.

So, too early to make strategic decision to cocoon the aged and vulnerable yet but coming soon

As an aside, how come we have done 6,000 + tests on people medically suspected of having the virus i.e. those who were referred for tests were either sent by Doctors or as a result of proximity to a positive case, and yet we have only 292 cases?

Are these numbers out of kilter with anticipated infection rate?

On the testing the test kits are being wasted.
People who think they have symptoms should be told to sell isolate for 14 days and then do the test unless their condition deteriorates.
Question.
You wake up with a cough etc.
How long do the symptoms last.
Assume for the sake of argument you, typical, have symptoms for 5 days.
If after three days you still have symptoms then it might be appropriate to have a test at that stage.

[paddyor]

On the testing the test kits are being wasted.
People who think they have symptoms should be told to sell isolate for 14 days and then do the test unless their condition deteriorates.
Question.
You wake up with a cough etc.
How long do the symptoms last.
Assume for the sake of argument you, typical, have symptoms for 5 days.
If after three days you still have symptoms then it might be appropriate to have a test at that stage.

THat's exactly what is happening here and every where else that isn't East Asia. We're ramping up teting but likely to run out by Thursday if the next batch of 30k don't arrive. You have to get a referral from your GP to go to a drive thru testing site etc. If we'd more testing capacity we wouldn't be in lock down and we could proceed reasonably normally like SK.

[paddyor]

Your logic would be valid if the medical advice was certain that re-infection cannot occur and we had a test which clearly showed who had had Covid 19 (perhaps asymtomatically). Unfortunately we neither have that test yet or the certainty it does not re-occur. China has at least two cases of re-occurence and Korea one (according to UK medics.

So, too early to make strategic decision to cocoon the aged and vulnerable yet but coming soon

As an aside, how come we have done 6,000 + tests on people medically suspected of having the virus i.e. those who were referred for tests were either sent by Doctors or as a result of proximity to a positive case, and yet we have only 292 cases?

Are these numbers out of kilter with anticipated infection rate?

This reasonably matches the Italian experience in the town of Vo I think (3k tests for 2.4% positive cases) but probably indicates there's more infected out there than we know. According to this thread most people tested were asymptomatic and at worst experienced little more than a mild cough.

https://twitter.com/andreamatranga/stat ... 77760?s=20

This has been jumped on by the "just a flu" crowd but there's no vacine for this yet and the flu has never overwhelmed the Italian health service like this in basically a month. Somewhat worringly there's an 18% false negative rate for testing.

[Oldschool]

Your logic would be valid if the medical advice was certain that re-infection cannot occur and we had a test which clearly showed who had had Covid 19 (perhaps asymtomatically). Unfortunately we neither have that test yet or the certainty it does not re-occur. China has at least two cases of re-occurence and Korea one (according to UK medics.

So, too early to make strategic decision to cocoon the aged and vulnerable yet but coming soon

As an aside, how come we have done 6,000 + tests on people medically suspected of having the virus i.e. those who were referred for tests were either sent by Doctors or as a result of proximity to a positive case, and yet we have only 292 cases?

Are these numbers out of kilter with anticipated infection rate?

This reasonably matches the Italian experience in the town of Vo I think (3k tests for 2.4% positive cases) but probably indicates there's more infected out there than we know. According to this thread most people tested were asymptomatic and at worst experienced little more than a mild cough.

https://twitter.com/andreamatranga/stat ... 77760?s=20

This has been jumped on by the "just a flu" crowd but there's no vacine for this yet and the flu has never overwhelmed the Italian health service like this in basically a month. Somewhat worringly there's an 18% false negative rate for testing.

On the asymptomatic thing, does that include raised temperature which is.
The problem, in part and understandable, is that if I ring up my GP and tell him that I think I have CV19, what exactly is he going to do.
1. Ask me a serious of questions regarding my "symptoms".
2. To be on the safe side get me tested
OR
2a. Isolate yourself for the a period and then do the test.

If someone thinks that they have CV19 follow the prescribed isolation period, is there a readily available test/tests to tell you've had the CV and are no longer infectious.

[Twist]

Your logic would be valid if the medical advice was certain that re-infection cannot occur and we had a test which clearly showed who had had Covid 19 (perhaps asymtomatically). Unfortunately we neither have that test yet or the certainty it does not re-occur. China has at least two cases of re-occurence and Korea one (according to UK medics.

So, too early to make strategic decision to cocoon the aged and vulnerable yet but coming soon

As an aside, how come we have done 6,000 + tests on people medically suspected of having the virus i.e. those who were referred for tests were either sent by Doctors or as a result of proximity to a positive case, and yet we have only 292 cases?

Are these numbers out of kilter with anticipated infection rate?

This reasonably matches the Italian experience in the town of Vo I think (3k tests for 2.4% positive cases) but probably indicates there's more infected out there than we know. According to this thread most people tested were asymptomatic and at worst experienced little more than a mild cough.

https://twitter.com/andreamatranga/stat ... 77760?s=20

This has been jumped on by the "just a flu" crowd but there's no vacine for this yet and the flu has never overwhelmed the Italian health service like this in basically a month. Somewhat worringly there's an 18% false negative rate for testing.

Also - I find it hard to believe that anyone could have influenza and not show any symptoms

[Peg Leg]

Your logic would be valid if the medical advice was certain that re-infection cannot occur and we had a test which clearly showed who had had Covid 19 (perhaps asymtomatically). Unfortunately we neither have that test yet or the certainty it does not re-occur. China has at least two cases of re-occurence and Korea one (according to UK medics.

So, too early to make strategic decision to cocoon the aged and vulnerable yet but coming soon

As an aside, how come we have done 6,000 + tests on people medically suspected of having the virus i.e. those who were referred for tests were either sent by Doctors or as a result of proximity to a positive case, and yet we have only 292 cases?

Are these numbers out of kilter with anticipated infection rate?

This reasonably matches the Italian experience in the town of Vo I think (3k tests for 2.4% positive cases) but probably indicates there's more infected out there than we know. According to this thread most people tested were asymptomatic and at worst experienced little more than a mild cough.

https://twitter.com/andreamatranga/stat ... 77760?s=20

This has been jumped on by the "just a flu" crowd but there's no vacine for this yet and the flu has never overwhelmed the Italian health service like this in basically a month. Somewhat worringly there's an 18% false negative rate for testing.

Also - I find it hard to believe that anyone could have influenza and not show any symptoms

A friend is involved in managing the croke park test facility and has told me that most cases are very mild.

[Hornet]

If someone thinks that they have CV19 follow the prescribed isolation period, is there a readily available test/tests to tell you've had the CV and are no longer infectious.

I heard the UK Government's Chief Medical Adviser Prof Chris Whitty say on Monday on a live TV broadcast, that as well as fast tracking research for a vaccine, Labs are fast tracking research to find a reliable test for people who have had the virus. His view was that if this could be achieved then this would be a "game changer" in the way that they approach dealing with the virus. It seems that there are many people who have been, and will be asymptomatic in respect to the virus.

[Oldschool]

What does the testing to date tell us.
Approximating the figures to simplify calculations.
5000 tests, 250 +ve. That's a good sample number.
Assume a population of 5m.
Statisticians can deduct a lot from those numbers.
If you take the figures at face value then 5% of the population have CV19, that works out at 25k.
Obviously that is not yet the case because the +ve results are skewed.
The question of course is by how much.
The government have access to that information and so are in a better position to estimate the real situation.
However:-
A large number of the +ve tests are not random, they were targeted at specific "traced" high probability cases.
The "community" cases are far more likely to give an accurate figure of the real numbers.
At the moment there may not be enough detected "community" cases but the "lads" will be able to make a few assumptions based on experience and well established maths.
Plucking a number out of the air for "community" cases, say 25 to date suggests that 2.5k people could have CV19.
Now pause for thought.
Leo suggested that we'll have 30k cases by the end of the month, thought it was high tbh but it got me thinking about sampling theory, where was he getting the 30k from?
Also we could have 30k cases but we won't have 30k tested cases, comprendo?
Leo also told us, last week, that cases will double every three days. That can have two meanings, both valid.
Detected cases can double and undetected cases can double.
In an earlier post I suggested that the peak will be early June, it will be a lot earlier if we have 30k by the end of month.
What are the ramifications.
Someone else can answer that.
What is to do.
Place a curfew on anyone over 65 (likely to be retired) or anyone with health conditions that put them at risk.
Identify people who have immunity.
BTW the numbers I've used above could be total nonsense but there is a methodology to them that does have value.
Now for the rumours.
Heard a story today.
Woman on holidays in the Canaries circa Christmas for two weeks fell ill halfway through her holiday, some symptoms similar to CV.
Dr told her to wear a mask and isolate herself.
This woman and any other people who have had similar experiences should look to be tested, they could be a valuable resource.

[Oldschoolsocks]

I thought that the projection was for 15k by the end of the month?