Corona Virus

[paddyor]

SO they've identified the 48hrs before symptons develop as the danger period for asymptomatic transmission.

325 cases is good.

Those numbers are almost exactly as expected. Just to briefly describe how the projection arrived at the number. Initially reviwed our experience in the seven days to Saturday night. Then looked carefully at our numbers: a) tests per 100k of population; b) % positives relative to total population; c) % deaths relative to number of positive cases. Then reviwed these numbers against the comparable percentages across all other countries (ex Italy which I consider an outlier because of population age). I then reviewed the projected shape of our graph to identify the average of the three most similar around the world - shown as the daily % growth in total cases. Thus far, it appears that the pace of growth in population infection i.e. overall % of the population, appears to have a certain commonality.

Not so the daily death rate in various countries which appears to have different factors at play, possibly including: average population age, living accomodation, hospital cross-infection, blood type(?), climatic, treatment given to infected patients, date by which hospital care is initiated etc. In this regard the outcome in countries such as India and Malaysia is of real concern. For almost the opposite reasons of life style, the projected death rates in London and New Year still ring warning bells.

Italy and Spain are still suffering badly, despite the sophistication of their health services. Perhaps both populations didn't treat the virus seriously enough at the outset and they are experiencing the consequences. Hopefully they have put the worst behind them, although it may be months before we can truly be certain.

I meant it in relative terms. The new cases per day aren't growing at higher rates seen earlier. And roughly a third are either healthcare workers or in nursing homes which is bad but maybe gives you a better idea of where we can redouble out efforts. I think Italy has turned the corner for cases and Spain will overtake them by the end of the week. THe Spanish seem to have been badly caught out. They misdiagnosed a number of cases which they now think were Covid 19 but had down as flu. So it's been there a lot longer than they relaised. Some suggestion that the death figures are a lot worse because people who died at home aren't in them

[johng]

Cheers Paddy. Love your work. If not the sad facts it represents.

[Oldschoolsocks]

SO they've identified the 48hrs before symptons develop as the danger period for asymptomatic transmission.

325 cases is good.

Is the death rate not doubling every 2.5 to 3 days though?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -dashboard

I just don’t know what to think at the moment.

It might be and it probably should given there's a 2-3 week lag for healthy patients to die. The big problem at the moment is the nursing home clusters. THe median age is 80+ of the deaths. Was taling to a solicitor yesterday. An old legal eagle friend of his from Tipp got in a nursing home last week. Decided he'd had a good life, said his goodbyes and rejected a ventilator because it'd be of use to someone else. That's stoicism and pretty selfless. Solicitor had several clients making similar DNR and final words arrangements.

Not all heroes wear capes

[Oldschool]

SO they've identified the 48hrs before symptons develop as the danger period for asymptomatic transmission.

325 cases is good.

Is the death rate not doubling every 2.5 to 3 days though?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -dashboard

I just don’t know what to think at the moment.

It might be and it probably should given there's a 2-3 week lag for healthy patients to die. The big problem at the moment is the nursing home clusters. THe median age is 80+ of the deaths. Was taling to a solicitor yesterday. An old legal eagle friend of his from Tipp got in a nursing home last week. Decided he'd had a good life, said his goodbyes and rejected a ventilator because it'd be of use to someone else. That's stoicism and pretty selfless. Solicitor had several clients making similar DNR and final words arrangements.

That's extremely brave, unselfish and hope that our decision makers can take heart and guidance from your solicitor's friend.
Doctors, solicitors and engineers cannot plead "I didn't understand what I was doing" as a defence.
A solicitor has given the doctors a hint as to what he thinks their next move needs to be.
The decision makers need now to an engineer of high repute and a good strategic thinker to help them take the next steps.
The next steps are steering the exit strategy.
It's not opening pubs once a week btw.
But before that the solicitor told us that sacrifices will have to be made.
At the moment the figures coming from the nursing home group look like they might overwhelm our ICU and ventilator capacity.
Obviously some time has to be allowed to see if things stablise and the rush slows and reverses.
There are a lot of conflicting pressures.
Cabin fever is not something to be ignored.
It's a potential time bomb as people's resolve breaks.
Therefore the exit strategy has to be triggered at some point and not too far into the future.
The exit strategy, without putting meat on it, involves a gradual return to normality.
People who are cocooned, old enough to be at risk or at risk due to health need to know that there is a strategy and that it's implementation isn't too far away.
It's very likely that the decision makers are aware of this but maybe they need some legal and engineering expertise on board to reinforce or give them confidence to take the first step back.
The comeback is going to mean an increase in cases but not necessarily more deaths because it should include those only at lowest risk.
For example the construction industry could restart but only those under 50 would be allowed to return to work.
As a certain historical figure was fond of saying.
In times of war, prepare for peace.

[Ruckedtobits]

Yes, hopefully somebody, or group, has been tasked with considering how to exit from full lockdown. In doing so there are many big issues to confront including:

* If a Vaccine becomes available, should it be mandatory?:
* Should schools and Universities be re-opened, but maintain cocooning for >70s?:
* Should shops & businesses be re-opened, subject to them having the ability to operate with social distancing? If not able, mandatory closure:
* If an antibody test becomes available, should goverment undertake a mass testing campaign e.g. >1m tests, to see whether herd immunity has developed?

Public Health policy will never be the same again. It is likely that future policies will become mandatory. However, there is a danger that a "lockdown" policy beyond about a month, coming into the warmer months, would be widely flouted and incapable of being able to prove it's continued purpose - unless there was the proof provided by either widespread testing or mandatory testing for presence of antibodies (is such a Test becomes available before a Vaccine)

More questions looming and how we answer them will impact on our future health and well being, including economically.

[Oldschool]

Was wondering why are children apparently unaffected.
What is different about children to the rest of the population and teens too.
Could it be related to their growth hormones.
Are there other groups showing a similar resilience.
Groups who use creatine perhaps

[IanD]

Was wondering why are children apparently unaffected.
What is different about children to the rest of the population and teens too.
Could it be related to their growth hormones.
Are there other groups showing a similar resilience.
Groups who use creatine perhaps

Simply not true.

3 teenagers died in UK (13), France(16) and Belgium(12) in the last few days.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/31/cor ... in-belgium

BBC News - Coronavirus: 13-year-old boy dies, says London hospital trust
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476

19 year old Italian man died in UK

BBC News - Coronavirus: Teenager 'could have survived with appropriate treatment'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52115265


A 6 week old baby died in Connecticut.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/202 ... s-covid19/



Younger people are less affected but are certainly affected. The child in London had no underlying health issues.

[Oldschool]

Was wondering why are children apparently unaffected.
What is different about children to the rest of the population and teens too.
Could it be related to their growth hormones.
Are there other groups showing a similar resilience.
Groups who use creatine perhaps

Simply not true.

3 teenagers died in UK (13), France(16) and Belgium(12) in the last few days.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/31/cor ... in-belgium

BBC News - Coronavirus: 13-year-old boy dies, says London hospital trust
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476

19 year old Italian man died in UK

BBC News - Coronavirus: Teenager 'could have survived with appropriate treatment'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52115265


A 6 week old baby died in Connecticut.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/202 ... s-covid19/



Younger people are less affected but are certainly affected. The child in London had no underlying health issues.

Question is still valid and maybe there is something different about them because they are so rare.

[heno]

Was wondering why are children apparently unaffected.
What is different about children to the rest of the population and teens too.
Could it be related to their growth hormones.
Are there other groups showing a similar resilience.
Groups who use creatine perhaps

I don't know about covid-19, but one of the theories about the Spanish flu in 1918 and why it seemed to affect people in their prime mostly is that it provoked an overreaction from the immune system so if you were young (immune system not mature) or old (immune system degraded) it was one thing but if your immune system was in its prime, its reaction could kill you.
This theory isn't proven. And may not be applicable here. Just saying it to indicate the complexity of what we are looking at.
It could take years to get to the bottom of a lot of these questions.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[kermischocolate]

Was wondering why are children apparently unaffected.
What is different about children to the rest of the population and teens too.
Could it be related to their growth hormones.
Are there other groups showing a similar resilience.
Groups who use creatine perhaps

I don't know about covid-19, but one of the theories about the Spanish flu in 1918 and why it seemed to affect people in their prime mostly is that it provoked an overreaction from the immune system so if you were young (immune system not mature) or old (immune system degraded) it was one thing but if your immune system was in its prime, its reaction could kill you.
This theory isn't proven. And may not be applicable here. Just saying it to indicate the complexity of what we are looking at.
It could take years to get to the bottom of a lot of these questions.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

yep. main theory at the minue is an adults immune system is basically overracting to the virus which is causing the complications leading to death. A child's is less mature so less reactive. Whether it's true or not, who knows.

[Ruckedtobits]

Although the FT changed the Charts today in their daily update and omitted the most useful one, the daily picture of country Graphs of Covid19 infection progression, the new chart which they have included is very useful.

The timeline in infections, shown as a bar-chart with colours denoted the intensity of daily diagnosis, suggests that countries like the US, UK, France, Germany, Iran and possibly Brazil & India may not see any reduction in daily increasing cases until at least end April and then have only a slow decline on the downward side of the graph, with continuing substantial loss of life. India may be the last of those countries to see a reduction but there is also a risk that major African countries like S. Africa & Nigeria could yet become epicentres.

On the other hand we here are going to experience a very significant distortion in our number of cases, either today or tomorrow, when 15,000 results processed in Germany will be included in our numbers. These tests were conducted over a number of days originally and perhaps their announcement should be averaged over a similar number of days.

The relevance of all these numbers will be a major factor in determining how the world might emerge into the post-Covis era. While major centres of infection still exist, there will be travel constraints and fears that a country could relapse back. China has avoided this but Japan may be trending this way.

So the prognosis suggests that Goverments may not be in a position to allow resumption of "normal" economic behaviour by the end of June at the earliest. So in retrospect the Coronavirus crisis may be, at best, a 3-month event, but could extent to much as 6 months.

[Oldschool]

So the question remains.
What is the best exit strategy to use.
1. Sit tight and wait for cure, treatment or vaccine.
2. Sit tight and hope (well try very hard to make) the cases drop to zero. No herd immunity.
3. Take the middle route of a managed (a lot easier said than done) return to normality. Herd immunity.
4. Gung-ho, (at risk aside) return to normality. Herd immunity.
5.
6.

[Peg Leg]

SO they've identified the 48hrs before symptons develop as the danger period for asymptomatic transmission.

325 cases is good.

Does anyone know how long after symptoms show, that someone is contagious?
So, mrs peg leg started showing symptoms last Friday, doc says today she is in likely day 9 (days 7-10 are the worst, post first day of symptoms) based on the arc of illness thus far. Both the kids have a cough, a dry b$&%@#d of a cough with nothing to actually clear. But I am fine.
In theory mrs peg leg should be clear next Friday (14 days since first symptoms), but technically I will have been in contact with her to that day; will I need to isolate for another 2 weeks?

[Oldschool]

SO they've identified the 48hrs before symptons develop as the danger period for asymptomatic transmission.

325 cases is good.

Does anyone know how long after symptoms show, that someone is contagious?
So, mrs peg leg started showing symptoms last Friday, doc says today she is in likely day 9 (days 7-10 are the worst, post first day of symptoms) based on the arc of illness thus far. Both the kids have a cough, a dry b$&%@#d of a cough with nothing to actually clear. But I am fine.
In theory mrs peg leg should be clear next Friday (14 days since first symptoms), but technically I will have been in contact with her to that day; will I need to isolate for another 2 weeks?

Not a Dr but load up on zinc/zinc lozenges and vitamin D both boost the immune system.
Doesn't stop you getting it but maybe not as sick.
BBC has a very good article about CV and children.
Basically with adults it goes down into the lungs, with children it doesn't go as deep.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... o-covid-19
Also.
https://www.newstalk.com/news/vitamin-d ... medium=web
Good Luck

[Oldschool]

Make mine a double?

[Oldschool]

Does anyone know.
Is there a blood test available to check for CV19 antibodies.
If there is, how difficult is it to get a test done?

[Hornet]

Does anyone know.
Is there a blood test available to check for CV19 antibodies.
If there is, how difficult is it to get a test done?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

[paddyor]

SO they've identified the 48hrs before symptons develop as the danger period for asymptomatic transmission.

325 cases is good.

Does anyone know how long after symptoms show, that someone is contagious?
So, mrs peg leg started showing symptoms last Friday, doc says today she is in likely day 9 (days 7-10 are the worst, post first day of symptoms) based on the arc of illness thus far. Both the kids have a cough, a dry b$&%@#d of a cough with nothing to actually clear. But I am fine.
In theory mrs peg leg should be clear next Friday (14 days since first symptoms), but technically I will have been in contact with her to that day; will I need to isolate for another 2 weeks?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ ... r-covid19/

Probably to some extent, though the first batch of studies is far from conclusive as to how long it lasts. Provisional research from Germany has suggested that COVID-19 infectiousness – in contrast to the 2003 SARS outbreak – peaks early and that recovering patients with mild symptoms become low-risk around 10 days after they first fall ill. But another study, following four medical professionals treated at a Wuhan hospital, revealed that traces of the virus could persist in the body for up to two weeks after symptoms had vanished; as the patients were no longer coughing or sneezing, the potential means of transmission were albeit much reduced. Less optimistic was a study published last week in The Lancet medical journal that showed the virus survived in one Chinese patient’s respiratory tract for 37 days – well above the average of 24 days for those with critical disease status.

[RoboProp]

Still no sign of my or my wife's test results yet. Out of the house today (bar the day I drove to test centre) for first time in nearly 4 weeks. Went for walk away from everyone with my wife and the kids. Fresh air how I missed you.

Hope Mrs OSS is recovered.

Hope all the Peg legs have a quick and speedy return to health

I hope your brother is better Old School even if he did wind me up something fierce at your son's wedding

[Oldschoolsocks]

Still no sign of my or my wife's test results yet. Out of the house today (bar the day I drove to test centre) for first time in nearly 4 weeks. Went for walk away from everyone with my wife and the kids. Fresh air how I missed you.

Hope Mrs OSS is recovered.

Hope all the Peg legs have a quick and speedy return to health

I hope your brother is better Old School even if he did wind me up something fierce at your son's wedding

Cheers big man, the missus definitely on the mend - still no results from her test either tho.

Enjoy the fresh air !!!

Ps best wishes to mrs Peg leg (Peggy?) and brother of Oldschool,