Corona Virus

[Logorrhea]

Nobody says that ramping up testing is easy, you know what is easy though - communications - that’s really easy.

We’re like mushrooms here.

I'm going to sound unsympathetic here, and that's not my aim, but whats the big deal? Is she still suffering symptoms? Has she been self-isolating? As you said its 16 days since the test, I assume she's okay now. Again, i'm not trying to attack you here, but if she (or any of your family there) isn't suffering in any way or under any real threat from the virus, why are you so desperate for confirmation of a yes/no?

Given the backlog in testing and limited resources I'd much rather they address testing using a risk based approach. Prioritise those at risk (preexisting conditions, compromised immune systems and elderly), those working to assist in the emergency. for those that are not under any real threat, kick them down the road.

Not trying to get at you, just genuinely wondering why you're so worked up now, given the time that has passed.
(typing symptom free with no understanding of how scary it may be)

[Oldschoolsocks]

Nobody says that ramping up testing is easy, you know what is easy though - communications - that’s really easy.

We’re like mushrooms here.

I'm going to sound unsympathetic here, and that's not my aim, but whats the big deal? Is she still suffering symptoms? Has she been self-isolating? As you said its 16 days since the test, I assume she's okay now. Again, i'm not trying to attack you here, but if she (or any of your family there) isn't suffering in any way or under any real threat from the virus, why are you so desperate for confirmation of a yes/no?

Given the backlog in testing and limited resources I'd much rather they address testing using a risk based approach. Prioritise those at risk (preexisting conditions, compromised immune systems and elderly), those working to assist in the emergency. for those that are not under any real threat, kick them down the road.

Not trying to get at you, just genuinely wondering why you're so worked up now, given the time that has passed.
(typing symptom free with no understanding of how scary it may be)

Oh right, I get what you’re saying, and maybe I’m coming across as hot and bothered about just my situation, but that’s not the point. The point is that when in a crisis a government official announces at a press conference that “x is two weeks” when it is actually three weeks it chips away my confidence in their handling of the situation.

If they can’t be honest about something as simple as how long a “lower priority” test will take, what else are they hiding under the carpet.

We can’t trust the number of confirmed cases because they haven’t made it through the backlog so the only number that we can trust is the number of deceased and that number is pretty bleak.
Up to 9th April 263 people had died, 187 in hospital of which 30 died in ICU. As we can’t trust the number of confirmed cases I can only extrapolate that with an average time from infection to death of 3 weeks and a fatality rate of 1.5% that on Paddy’s day we probably had in the region of 10,000 to 13,000 cases growing at a rate of - I can’t even think about the maths - the point is the numbers are definitely much much worse than we are being told and how can I trust the message when they won’t even tell the truth about how long a test result is going to take?

That’s my problem.

[Oldschool]

Not sticking up for the HSE here but the whole testing task is one of mammoth proportions, totally underestimate because of logistics and availability.
In the UK before CV19 they had approx 1000 locations to service with PPE, now it's 60k.
Even if I misheard and it was 10k, now it's 60k.
So not in the slightest bit surprised that testing isn't working well which is not to say that it needs to improve.
On top of that swab testing is never going to be the answer, there's a bit of "being seen to be doing something". We need both swab testing and antibody testing.
However and to answer Log's question it's absolutely vital that people and the authorities both know who had CV is now cured.
For people it's simple peace of mind.
For the rest of us the more people with that peace of mind the better.
As for the numbers who have had it or still have the number is multiples 8k and likely more than 100k and the more the better.
We have no way of identifying who they are or how many of them there are.
However the importance of having a high volume of testing with quick return on results is that it gives a much better picture of where we are at.
RP and my bro either weren't tested or may have been tested too late.
A whole raft of people with lesser symptoms weren't tested and weren't even identified as potential cases.
Another question and we've no information on this.
The lads have their models.
What are they doing with the late reported results.
Take RP for example, he.was tested weeks ago.
Supposing his test comes back positive.
As things stand that result will be added to tonights figured say.
But he was actually+be weeks ago.
Ditto the German returns.
The models should and can be readjusted and I would be confident that they are doing this.
The real impact of those delayed results is that daily new case wise we've probably peaked already but the authorities don't want to tell us for reasons that are understandable and obviously they want to be certain of their facts.
Mainly because of the lag between contagion and death seems to be about three weeks.
This means that there will be a reluctance to ease restrictions until this has peaked.
The number of deaths in nursing homes is over 50% of the total of deaths and is the front line effectively. That's what the beginning of the exit is constrained by.

[heno]

We can’t trust the number of confirmed cases because they haven’t made it through the backlog so the only number that we can trust is the number of deceased and that number is pretty bleak.

But we can't trust the number of confirmed cases even if they had no backlog. Each country has a different selection criteria for who is to be tested, so you can't compare between them. Even within Ireland, you can't really compare the rate before and after the results being received from Germany. It is a bleak thing to say but the only true measure is the death rate.

I think someone above said it already, but until they can test everybody that they would like to (the sick, family members, everyone in the contact trace) the numbers really don't describe the spread of the disease properly.

And to go from zero testing to 10,000 tests a day all done domestically in a number of weeks, is no mean feat. All when the whole world is screaming for the testing reagents. (I'm pretty sure they said orders were placed and not delivered when they said they would).

If the worst part of this is that we were all under lockdown for a week or 2 longer than notionally possible because of a delay in ramping up the testing, then I think that's a reasonable result.

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[Oldschoolsocks]

We can’t trust the number of confirmed cases because they haven’t made it through the backlog so the only number that we can trust is the number of deceased and that number is pretty bleak.

But we can't trust the number of confirmed cases even if they had no backlog. Each country has a different selection criteria for who is to be tested, so you can't compare between them. Even within Ireland, you can't really compare the rate before and after the results being received from Germany. It is a bleak thing to say but the only true measure is the death rate.

I think someone above said it already, but until they can test everybody that they would like to (the sick, family members, everyone in the contact trace) the numbers really don't describe the spread of the disease properly.

And to go from zero testing to 10,000 tests a day all done domestically in a number of weeks, is no mean feat. All when the whole world is screaming for the testing reagents. (I'm pretty sure they said orders were placed and not delivered when they said they would).

If the worst part of this is that we were all under lockdown for a week or 2 longer than notionally possible because of a delay in ramping up the testing, then I think that's a reasonable result.

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Maybe I’ve not articulated what my problem is yet, it’s not a matter that they haven’t perfected a very difficult task, or that they are behind where they behind where they need to be, or that we have to lock down until Cinco de Mayo, it’s when things are not being reported honestly that confidence gets eroded.

I’m 100% certain that I am not the only one on this board to have been involved in more than one project that had at least one element that was a bit of a shitshow. It is clear as day to me when they were trying to hide this by managing the message - it’s never a good thing.

We are major stakeholders in this endeavour and need to be kept in the loop.

[Peg Leg]

Nobody says that ramping up testing is easy, you know what is easy though - communications - that’s really easy.

We’re like mushrooms here.

I'm going to sound unsympathetic here, and that's not my aim, but whats the big deal? Is she still suffering symptoms? Has she been self-isolating? As you said its 16 days since the test, I assume she's okay now. Again, i'm not trying to attack you here, but if she (or any of your family there) isn't suffering in any way or under any real threat from the virus, why are you so desperate for confirmation of a yes/no?

Given the backlog in testing and limited resources I'd much rather they address testing using a risk based approach. Prioritise those at risk (preexisting conditions, compromised immune systems and elderly), those working to assist in the emergency. for those that are not under any real threat, kick them down the road.

Not trying to get at you, just genuinely wondering why you're so worked up now, given the time that has passed.
(typing symptom free with no understanding of how scary it may be)

Agree with this and so did my GP. My wife Peggy, first showed symptoms 16 Days ago, but it was just a cough (which given the fact that she works in a bank with the public, was reason enough to call in sick on the Monday). By day 5 we contacted the GP because the cough was persistent. He gave her 10 mins of questioning and diagnosed her with CV19, at this point Peggy was one day away from having about 5 bouts of coughing a day, 20 mins of which were spent crying due to the abdominal pain and that was in turn followed by a good 30 mins of sitting upright with 100% of her effort and focus on breathing. This was scary as f%~k?(never had a fever though, but the fatigue was very taxing).
The GP suggested not putting her forward for a test with the following logic: Peggy needed to get better and not be fixated on the need to be tested for something he had already diagnosed. The anxiety some of his other patients had felt due to waiting or lost results was an added stress not needed. Also, he felt that she would make a full recovery and put a plan in place to call every morning, therefore not adding to the HSE burden. He spoke with Peggy every day through to the following Tuesday and issued prescriptions for each stage of the virus.
Peggy is almost 100% over it now, but the cough seems like it will linger for a few weeks more. Thanks for all the well wishes from everyone, I've not been on here for a while. Good luck to any of you dealing with it, it's a shitter.
Final point, both kids (4&7yrs) picked up mild coughs and I have had no symptoms whatsoever.

[Oldschool]

Nobody says that ramping up testing is easy, you know what is easy though - communications - that’s really easy.

We’re like mushrooms here.

I'm going to sound unsympathetic here, and that's not my aim, but whats the big deal? Is she still suffering symptoms? Has she been self-isolating? As you said its 16 days since the test, I assume she's okay now. Again, i'm not trying to attack you here, but if she (or any of your family there) isn't suffering in any way or under any real threat from the virus, why are you so desperate for confirmation of a yes/no?

Given the backlog in testing and limited resources I'd much rather they address testing using a risk based approach. Prioritise those at risk (preexisting conditions, compromised immune systems and elderly), those working to assist in the emergency. for those that are not under any real threat, kick them down the road.

Not trying to get at you, just genuinely wondering why you're so worked up now, given the time that has passed.
(typing symptom free with no understanding of how scary it may be)

Agree with this and so did my GP. My wife Peggy, first showed symptoms 16 Days ago, but it was just a cough (which given the fact that she works in a bank with the public, was reason enough to call in sick on the Monday). By day 5 we contacted the GP because the cough was persistent. He gave her 10 mins of questioning and diagnosed her with CV19, at this point Peggy was one day away from having about 5 bouts of coughing a day, 20 mins of which were spent crying due to the abdominal pain and that was in turn followed by a good 30 mins of sitting upright with 100% of her effort and focus on breathing. This was scary as f%~k (never had a fever though, but the fatigue was very taxing).
The GP suggested not putting her forward for a test with the following logic: Peggy needed to get better and not be fixated on the need to be tested for something he had already diagnosed. The anxiety some of his other patients had felt due to waiting or lost results was an added stress not needed. Also, he felt that she would make a full recovery and put a plan in place to call every morning, therefore not adding to the HSE burden. He spoke with Peggy every day through to the following Tuesday and issued prescriptions for each stage of the virus.
Peggy is almost 100% over it now, but the cough seems like it will linger for a few weeks more. Thanks for all the well wishes from everyone, I've not been on here for a while. Good luck to any of you dealing with it, it's a shitter.
Final point, both kids (4&7yrs) picked up mild coughs and I have had no symptoms whatsoever.

Thanks for sharing.

[kermischocolate]

Bit of perspective from the other side. I work for the NHS in the UK. It is an utter shambles in terms of how the response has been organised.

Don't forget cough, shortness of breath, fever, fatigue are very generic symptoms. They could be any viral infection not just covid19. The diagnosis is only useful for contact tracing. If that's not happening there's not much point to it as it doesn't change the management of symptoms.

Ireland is far from perfect and has made mistakes but seems to generally have dealt with this pretty well - and the death rate reflects this.
Stay safe everyone.

[heno]

Maybe I’ve not articulated what my problem is yet, it’s not a matter that they haven’t perfected a very difficult task, or that they are behind where they behind where they need to be, or that we have to lock down until Cinco de Mayo, it’s when things are not being reported honestly that confidence gets eroded.

I’m 100% certain that I am not the only one on this board to have been involved in more than one project that had at least one element that was a bit of a shitshow. It is clear as day to me when they were trying to hide this by managing the message - it’s never a good thing.

We are major stakeholders in this endeavour and need to be kept in the loop.

Ok I've re read your posts and it seems you heard them say low priority cases will get results in 14 days but in your case its been more than that. I totally acknowledge that that must be very tough to go through and offer my sympathies. But to then make a leap that this is a sign of misinformation and therefore cause of mistrust, well I just don't see it that way.
Not every swab goes down the same pipe and you just read off at the end how long it took. There is a lot of triage of priorities, putting into batches, arranging storage, assigning to test labs, arranging shipment, if its Germany what flight does it go on, is Germany sticking to promised timeliness etc.
If they thought they would have it done by 14 days when they said it, and in reality only 85% were done in that time, that's fine by me.
I absolutely have been involved in sh!t shows in my own career, and if anything it has taught me of the importance of a full end to end test phase of processes to reveal the unforseen problems that lie within. None of that has been possible in what we are talking about. We have to acknowledge that before we criticise.

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[Oldschoolsocks]

Maybe I’ve not articulated what my problem is yet, it’s not a matter that they haven’t perfected a very difficult task, or that they are behind where they behind where they need to be, or that we have to lock down until Cinco de Mayo, it’s when things are not being reported honestly that confidence gets eroded.

I’m 100% certain that I am not the only one on this board to have been involved in more than one project that had at least one element that was a bit of a shitshow. It is clear as day to me when they were trying to hide this by managing the message - it’s never a good thing.

We are major stakeholders in this endeavour and need to be kept in the loop.

Ok I've re read your posts and it seems you heard them say low priority cases will get results in 14 days but in your case its been more than that. I totally acknowledge that that must be very tough to go through and offer my sympathies. But to then make a leap that this is a sign of misinformation and therefore cause of mistrust, well I just don't see it that way.
Not every swab goes down the same pipe and you just read off at the end how long it took. There is a lot of triage of priorities, putting into batches, arranging storage, assigning to test labs, arranging shipment, if its Germany what flight does it go on, is Germany sticking to promised timeliness etc.
If they thought they would have it done by 14 days when they said it, and in reality only 85% were done in that time, that's fine by me.
I absolutely have been involved in sh!t shows in my own career, and if anything it has taught me of the importance of a full end to end test phase of processes to reveal the unforseen problems that lie within. None of that has been possible in what we are talking about. We have to acknowledge that before we criticise.

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“is Germany sticking to promised timelines etc.” See there’s the problem right there nobody knows, and the fact that it’s dragging on like that I wouldn’t be surprised there was no SLA agreed at all.

I’ve fully acknowledged that this is a very unusual circumstance, my issue is that we were being told lies.

At least Holohan has acknowledged that a prerequisite to coming out of lockdown will be a reliable test that can be turned around within 24 or 48 hours so we can actually implement mass testing and contact tracing where necessary.

[paddyor]

“is Germany sticking to promised timelines etc.” See there’s the problem right there nobody knows, and the fact that it’s dragging on like that I wouldn’t be surprised there was no SLA agreed at all.

I’ve fully acknowledged that this is a very unusual circumstance, my issue is that we were being told lies.

At least Holohan has acknowledged that a prerequisite to coming out of lockdown will be a reliable test that can be turned around within 24 or 48 hours so we can actually implement mass testing and contact tracing where necessary.

I think thay've been burned by over promising already so they're being careful in what they commit to now. 14k tests returned 1k positive results with the balance of 25-30k to be finished by next week. Given 70% of those people will be revicery and the balance in hospital etc, I can see why it's not a priority.

[Oldschool]

“is Germany sticking to promised timelines etc.” See there’s the problem right there nobody knows, and the fact that it’s dragging on like that I wouldn’t be surprised there was no SLA agreed at all.

I’ve fully acknowledged that this is a very unusual circumstance, my issue is that we were being told lies.

At least Holohan has acknowledged that a prerequisite to coming out of lockdown will be a reliable test that can be turned around within 24 or 48 hours so we can actually implement mass testing and contact tracing where necessary.

I think thay've been burned by over promising already so they're being careful in what they commit to now. 14k tests returned 1k positive results with the balance of 25-30k to be finished by next week. Given 70% of those people will be revicery and the balance in hospital etc, I can see why it's not a priority.

The message on testing is and has been confused.
A cluster was defined to be three or more etc now it's two or more.
By no stretch of the imagination is two of anything a cluster so why the change in definition.
At the very least it's inconsistent.
In addition it has been clearly manipulated.
Take today's and yesterday's figures.
They are not a reflection of the true state of play.
The deaths are the most meaningful figure.
It's no coincidence that the figures have peaked now.
In actual fact our case number probably peaked more than a week ago but it wouldn't have suited anyone to make it seem so.
The German returns have been released at a very appropriate time.
The Germans were probably told to hold off either on the testing or the results.
If you think that's conspiracy theory then my answer to you is simple.
This is Germany we're talking about.
The one country in Europe who is able to help everyone else and whose deaths per million is only bettered by the likes of Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand.
Be the above be as it may, what worries me is that our decision makers are balling at taking the next step.
They obviously should allow some time to see how Denmark and Austria progress.
Listening to Phillip Nolan I get the distinct impression that if it was left to him we'd be in lockdown for a long time.
McConkey is very conservative too but he seems to be at least aware that a decision does need to be made.
To repeat each country's exit strategy will be different.
Ireland being an island has an advantage.
McConkey, however, has identified that for that to work we need NI to be singing from the same hymn sheet.
That might not be that difficult a problem.
A multi phase strategy will be required.
Our leaders have started to take very gentle steps in the right direction.
For what it's worth though they have put the fear of bejaysus into a fair number of the population.
This could be counterproductive so the message needs to gradually change.
The first group that is to be freed up should be identified to the public over the next week or so.
The public needs to be reminded that this is the only group and that a second step will only begin depending on how successful the first phase is.
The first phase will probably have to last at two weeks before the second phase begins.
We badly need that antibody test and for our swab testing to achieve its timing goals.
We are now at the point where we need one clear and authoitive message coming through.
We've been softened up,are relatively compliant.
It's time to reap the benefits from that achievement.

[Oldschoolsocks]

66% of confirmed cases are from community transmissions and the R0>1, until those figures improve there’ll be no loosening of restrictions

[Oldschool]

We either trust the 80/20 risk split and keep the 20% locked up and tell them that's the plan and/or sort out our testing or sh1t is going to happen and we risk losing the advantage we've gained.
The financial and mental pressures on people are building up and something positive has to be done about it.
The word indefinitely is not an option.

[Peg Leg]

Lad's forget herd protection. The level of infection required eclipses the number of cases and the death toll would be huge.
Grand as an island we have one additional control, but we need to manage the inevitable spread. What we're doing now is assisting the HSE to help manage the critical cases, after this surge we will go back to work but we will be distancing for a long number of months thereafter to help manage the ling and slow procession to the mortuary.

A vaccine is the best means to an end, but we're not capable of not infecting one another imo.

[ronk]

66% of confirmed cases are from community transmissions and the R0>1, until those figures improve there’ll be no loosening of restrictions

Without adequate testing and contact tracing there has to be community transmission.

Social distancing hasn’t worked that well or we started off with a much more widespread infection. That’s why we are seeing this growth. Either way lockdown was the right thing.

If it had worked then we could start thinking about end dates. Instead the good news was just delayed bad news. Could be a lot worse though.

Testing healthcare workers, really high risk people and severely ill patients in hospital had to be the priority. Outside of that people who have tested positive should be removed from community spaces and given assistance to stay at home.

Testing is hard but contact tracing and isolation is a more attainable task. But it requires interdisciplinary coordination and bureaucratic agility. The nursing home situation was preventable.

[ronk]

66% of confirmed cases are from community transmissions and the R0>1, until those figures improve there’ll be no loosening of restrictions

Without adequate testing and contact tracing there has to be community transmission.

Social distancing hasn’t worked that well or we started off with a much more widespread infection. That’s why we are seeing this growth. Either way lockdown was the right thing.

If it had worked then we could start thinking about end dates. Instead the good news was just delayed bad news. Could be a lot worse though.

Testing healthcare workers, really high risk people and severely ill patients in hospital had to be the priority. Outside of that people who have tested positive should be removed from community spaces and given assistance to stay at home.

Testing is hard but contact tracing and isolation is a more attainable task. But it requires interdisciplinary coordination and bureaucratic agility. The nursing home situation was preventable.

[Peg Leg]

We either trust the 80/20 risk split and keep the 20% locked up and tell them that's the plan and/or sort out our testing or sh1t is going to happen and we risk losing the advantage we've gained.
The financial and mental pressures on people are building up and something positive has to be done about it.
The word indefinitely is not an option.

Testing is there purely to inform the government as to effectiveness of their countermeasures. That is it.

[ronk]

We either trust the 80/20 risk split and keep the 20% locked up and tell them that's the plan and/or sort out our testing or sh1t is going to happen and we risk losing the advantage we've gained.
The financial and mental pressures on people are building up and something positive has to be done about it.
The word indefinitely is not an option.

Testing is there purely to inform the government as to effectiveness of their countermeasures. That is it.

Testing has value for people whether they test positive or negative and it has a major impact on the people they care for or who care for them.

[Hippo]

Lad's forget herd protection. The level of infection required eclipses the number of cases and the death toll would be huge.
Grand as an island we have one additional control, but we need to manage the inevitable spread. What we're doing now is assisting the HSE to help manage the critical cases, after this surge we will go back to work but we will be distancing for a long number of months thereafter to help manage the ling and slow procession to the mortuary.

A vaccine is the best means to an end, but we're not capable of not infecting one another imo.

Agree with all of this