Corona Virus

[Ruckedtobits]

This is exactly the strategic dilemma that Politicians and national economic planners should now be debating and evaluating.

The fundamental question of Society v Economy was determined in part by the public credibility of Houlihan, De Gascun et al, and once Leo, Pascal & Coveney recognised the stature the medics had attained in the public mind, there was never any question that the societal priorities would win out over those of the economy.

The debate this time is different. Do we want to sacrifice NOW for the prospect of eliminating the virus from the island - say by the end of September. Or, do we want to have summer holidays, creches and bars re-opening and matches, concerts & hair dos by the end of August before we go bonkers, or bust, without some economic or social diversion?

It seems a pretty crude choice but that what it amounts to. The financial aspect isn't the key question at a National level. The ECB & IMF are not going to come the heavy on any European Government borrowing more to provide security for its citizens during a Pandemic. The crisis will be with small and medium sized businesses, largely in the Leisure industry. Three months more of closedown will spell the end for maybe 40% of those businesses. Those that survive may face a really good future as the rest of the Irish economy may be booming in 2021 if we have cleared the virus and can do away with 'social distancing', Covid Testing and all the other inconveniences.

This should be the topic for real National Debate now, but it won't even make the headlines in the next News Cycle because all the meeja are focussed on Government Formation manouvers. Skirmish always outweighs strategy in popular interest.

Another key opportunity missed to have Ireland's future mapped out by strategic planning rather than reactive management. So, what's new?

[heno]

Study: Coronavirus Lockdowns Saved 3 Million Lives In Europe
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... aphic/amp/

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[Oldschool]

HSE to carry out a random anti-body sample.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0615/11474 ... s-ireland/

Initial results expected in late August.
The lack of urgency signaled by that time frame is shocking.
Just as well it's only an emergency we have and not a crisis.
Suppose we should be, at least, grateful that they are actually carrying out the sample.

[Ruckedtobits]

TBF, the cross-assignment of key personnel during Covid has been very significant and projects such as this have to staffed by core personnel in each specialty. Different areas of medicine are now asking for the return of key staff seconded / transferred to 'hot-spots' during the early weeks of Covid.

That's the core reason for the timeline of the Antibody Survey Programme.

[Oldschool]

TBF, the cross-assignment of key personnel during Covid has been very significant and projects such as this have to staffed by core personnel in each specialty. Different areas of medicine are now asking for the return of key staff seconded / transferred to 'hot-spots' during the early weeks of Covid.

That's the core reason for the timeline of the Antibody Survey Programme.

OK, maybe I was being a bit harsh.
However implicit in what you are saying is the fact that the capacity to carry out 100k swab tests is being wound down also.
That suggests a confidence that there will not be a significant second wave.
Which leads me to-
My biggest beef all along has been and still is the HSE and DOF attitude and mixed messaging regarding the wearing of masks.
Prevention is better than cure. Wearing masks is the single most important weapon against the spread of COVID.
It's more important than social distancing and hand hygiene, way more important.
The logic is inescapable so why pretend otherwise.
Stop the spread and the R goes downs and will stay down. Wearing masks stops the spread.
Ergo no significant second wave.

[ronk]

Yes and they needed the masks for medical situations. There was a shortage that would have been exacerbated.

It did more to prevent the spread and save lives to have PPE for people in the highest risk situations.

[Oldschool]

Yes and they needed the masks for medical situations. There was a shortage that would have been exacerbated.

It did more to prevent the spread and save lives to have PPE for people in the highest risk situations.

That was then, this is now.
Now is the time to get everyone wearing masks and prevent another wave.

[Ruckedtobits]

Yes and they needed the masks for medical situations. There was a shortage that would have been exacerbated.

It did more to prevent the spread and save lives to have PPE for people in the highest risk situations.

That was then, this is now.
Now is the time to get everyone wearing masks and prevent another wave.

If we have learned anything from Beijing and Tokyo news of the past four days, it is that 'Spikes' or a full 'Second Wave' appear to be almost inevitable. Whilst it is patently evident that there is no unanimous conclusion among medical & scientific experts as to the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of Covid-19, there is total agreement that their use on Public Transport, or in crowded locations where social spacing is impossible, is preferable to not having any face covering.

Many people are feeling the mental pressure of three months of unusual living and distorted lifestyles. To those, and many within the media, it is worth being reminded that if we don't presevere with disciplined procedures, we could face the same again, or worse, come early or mid-September, taking a timeline from the experience of China.

Entering another lockdown, this time starting as we enter the winter months but with the experience of knowing what we face, would be akin to a National prison sentence. Were we to also experience a new Flu epidemic during the winter months, our major hospitals could be challenged to keep pace.

So, wear masks, wash hands & stay apart and we give ourselves the best chance of getting to Christmas without Covid-19 dominating our society and econony for the whole of 2020.

[ronk]

Now is the time to be stockpiling.

[Oldschool]

Now is the time to be stockpiling.

Yep definitely and some strategic thinking and planning instead of waiting to see what happens.
An at least twice a week random sample (10,000 approx) involving swab tests should be carried out from now on (assuming people are willing).
This would give an early warning of problems given the asymptomatic nature of the beast.
I've heard there is a new "swab" test whereby simply spitting into a container does the trick and results are available within hours.
Something like that would be a lot less invasive if it exists.
Lockdown is not the answer but preemptive strikes might be.
The UK is heading toward herd immunity and may well be encouraged by the news that cheap steroids are a factor in the survival rate.

[Oldschool]

Yes and they needed the masks for medical situations. There was a shortage that would have been exacerbated.

It did more to prevent the spread and save lives to have PPE for people in the highest risk situations.

That was then, this is now.
Now is the time to get everyone wearing masks and prevent another wave.

If we have learned anything from Beijing and Tokyo news of the past four days, it is that 'Spikes' or a full 'Second Wave' appear to be almost inevitable. Whilst it is patently evident that there is no unanimous conclusion among medical & scientific experts as to the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of Covid-19, there is total agreement that their use on Public Transport, or in crowded locations where social spacing is impossible, is preferable to not having any face covering.

Many people are feeling the mental pressure of three months of unusual living and distorted lifestyles. To those, and many within the media, it is worth being reminded that if we don't presevere with disciplined procedures, we could face the same again, or worse, come early or mid-September, taking a timeline from the experience of China.

Entering another lockdown, this time starting as we enter the winter months but with the experience of knowing what we face, would be akin to a National prison sentence. Were we to also experience a new Flu epidemic during the winter months, our major hospitals could be challenged to keep pace.

So, wear masks, wash hands & stay apart and we give ourselves the best chance of getting to Christmas without Covid-19 dominating our society and econony for the whole of 2020.

Agree with that last line especially although if we are wearing proper quality masks distancing isn't such a big issue so long as too much alcohol isn't involved.
Prevention should be king.
If there is a second wave in Ireland it is going to come in a different form.
A lot of nursing homes now have herd immunity effectively, a large number of health personnel have immunity.
One thing that requires serious examination is the large number of health personnel that were infected.
Why and maybe even more importantly where, what were they doing, do procedures need to be reviewed in relation to how COVID patients are dealt with.

[ronk]

The UK is heading toward herd immunity and may well be encouraged by the news that cheap steroids are a factor in the survival rate.

They are a long way from that.

[Oldschool]

The UK is heading toward herd immunity and may well be encouraged by the news that cheap steroids are a factor in the survival rate.

They are a long way from that.

Over 30% in London and not too far behind that in other large population centres is a very significant level of infection or immunity.

[ronk]

The UK is heading toward herd immunity and may well be encouraged by the news that cheap steroids are a factor in the survival rate.

They are a long way from that.

Over 30% in London and not too far behind that in other large population centres is a very significant level of infection or immunity.

Unlikely that the official figures would be off that much. Even still that wouldn’t be halfway to herd immunity.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Has anyone that isn’t not a doctor confirmed that herd immunity is a viable strategy and if it is what level of recovery is theoretically required?

[Oldschool]

Doctors are the last people you'd want in control of a herd immunity program.

[Oldschool]

Evidence that COVID19 was in Italy before January.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06- ... ember.html

Still no indication from our own experts as to when COVID was present here.
A lot earlier than the official date of 29Feb and as a result likely to have a big impact on modelling.
It suggests that the spread of COVID is easier to prevent and control.
It also suggests that the total number of cases is a lot higher than the estimated 250k/300k cases based on a factor of 10 multiplier of confirmed cases.
It's far more likely that there are well over 500k cases with a proportionately higher number of cases in Dublin.

[Peg Leg]

Yes and they needed the masks for medical situations. There was a shortage that would have been exacerbated.

It did more to prevent the spread and save lives to have PPE for people in the highest risk situations.

Could have advised homemade face coverings

[Oldschoolsocks]

Yes and they needed the masks for medical situations. There was a shortage that would have been exacerbated.

It did more to prevent the spread and save lives to have PPE for people in the highest risk situations.

Could have advised homemade face coverings

have to agree here, face covering/scarf.

they did seem to think at the time though that there was a risk that people would be touching their faces more if they wore a mask, and that seemed to be very much the focus, along with washing your hands and going home if you felt unwell

[Oldschool]

The content of this article could apply to most countries.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06- ... eater.html

The general public may not know when the first case was, in Ireland, but the government and NPHET surely have a fairly accurate idea.
Added to that it seems odd that sampling using both antigen and antibody tests haven't already been carried out.