Corona Virus

[Oldschool]

For anyone with children going back to school, this article might provide a little bit of reassurance.
https://osf.io/5n8da/

Woman are less vulnerable to COVID than men it appears.
Women, apparently have better T cell immunity than men and this becomes more apparent with age.
So lads go and get that flu jab - man flu is real and not a figment of the imagination of your female partners/friends

[The Doc]

So lads go and get that flu jab - man flu is real and not a figment of the imagination of your female partners/friends

Ok - pet peeve. "Man Flu" refers to men claiming a cold is a flu i.e. overreacting to regular sniffles and claiming to be half dead and have to go to bed. So flu jab will have zero effect on man flu. It will help against actual flu

Bit like "staycation" - holidaying in Ireland isn't a staycation. Staying at your home for holidays is staycation

[LeRouxIsPHat]

So lads go and get that flu jab - man flu is real and not a figment of the imagination of your female partners/friends

Ok - pet peeve. "Man Flu" refers to men claiming a cold is a flu i.e. overreacting to regular sniffles and claiming to be half dead and have to go to bed. So flu jab will have zero effect on man flu. It will help against actual flu

Bit like "staycation" - holidaying in Ireland isn't a staycation. Staying at your home for holidays is staycation

Your second point is a pet peeve of mine...it can mean both. It's the definition that comes up the most when you google it and it's very clearly the common usage. I'd usually be of a mind to stick with the "traditional" usage (staycation is a newish word) but not in this case. I really can't fathom why people have an issue with it when it's very clearly in the definition of it.

[paddyor]

So lads go and get that flu jab - man flu is real and not a figment of the imagination of your female partners/friends

Ok - pet peeve. "Man Flu" refers to men claiming a cold is a flu i.e. overreacting to regular sniffles and claiming to be half dead and have to go to bed. So flu jab will have zero effect on man flu. It will help against actual flu

Bit like "staycation" - holidaying in Ireland isn't a staycation. Staying at your home for holidays is staycation

Your second point is a pet peeve of mine...it can mean both. It's the definition that comes up the most when you google it and it's very clearly the common usage. I'd usually be of a mind to stick with the "traditional" usage (staycation is a newish word) but not in this case. I really can't fathom why people have an issue with it when it's very clearly in the definition of it.

Staycation originates from the US around the GFC IIRC. There's a daily show segment on it and that was the first I ever heard of it. In that case(and the US in general) it means stay at home. Most Americans would holiday in the US so it's kind of meaningless otherwise.

[johng]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GFC

The what now?

What Irish person ever used the word vacation never mind staycation. We always went on holidays.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GFC

The what now?

What Irish person ever used the word vacation never mind staycation. We always went on holidays.

Now I can get on board with disliking the use of the word and the general disdain for using Americanisms alright

Edit: So holistay might work? It’s probably already been done but I’m proud of myself for thinking of it so don’t want to google it and see that it already exists.

[Oldschool]

Currently Ireland is in the middle of its' 2nd wave running at just over 100 CV cases per day.
Information is scarce on the ground, however, as NPHET et al have obviously decided that we are not to be trusted.
However there are some numbers you just can't hide.
Logically deaths lag cases and this is what we are seeing now.
However back in March/April this was not the case and in fact our deaths peaked (or appeared to) before our cases.
This trend also seems to have been typical of countries in Europe.
It's fair to say that there are a few reasons for this, number of tests or lack of testing capacity, reliability of testing, likely cases not being counted by GPs for example.

Basically six months ago there were a lot more cases than the actually number being recorded and CV was probably in the community a lot earlier than is officially recorded (this is an officially accepted observation, not mine)
Our second wave is barely a blip, probably down mostly to staycationing and probably not too high a price to pay to allow people to let off a bit of steam.
Meat processing and probably migrant worker farm related activities also.
Our third wave is likely to come just after the schools mid term break followed by another lull
Our fourth wave is then likely to be after Christmas.

So what are we not being told that might be considered useful information.

1. Where are the outbreaks or clusters occurring as in what town/village location. "They" have this information.
2. How infectious is a person who is asymptomatic in comparison to a person who is symptomatic.
3. How has the treatment for CV changed or evolved over the last six months.

What is to do?

Personally I didn't realise what a huge impact the flu has on our health system.
What are the HSE and DOH doing about this.
Reacting rather preempting would appear to be the answer.
It is shocking to hear that less than a third of our nurses get the flu jab every year and they're not alone.
That is truly shocking.
So you can't make them get it, not true, simply not true.
It should have been made a condition of their employment during one of those many rounds of pay talks with their employer paying for it, of course.
The same should apply to nursing home staff and agency staff and the companies who hire them.
And if the law doesn't allow for this, then change the effing law, test its' constitutionality if necessary.
Never waste a good crisis.

Draconian, yeah sure it is but flu costs lives and diverts resources away from other areas badly in need of the waste that is Flu.

[munster#1]

With 182 cases of Covid announced in Dublin today, I wonder if a lockdown might be imminent, thus putting a big spanner in the works for this and other matches.

[neiliog93]

With 182 cases of Covid announced in Dublin today, I wonder if a lockdown might be imminent, thus putting a big spanner in the works for this and other matches.

Hopefully not, I live abroad where there are more cases per 100,000 than in Dublin or Ireland and there's no been no cancelling of sports events lately where I am. As long as the players are regularly tested, it should be fine.

[curates_egg]

With 182 cases of Covid announced in Dublin today, I wonder if a lockdown might be imminent, thus putting a big spanner in the works for this and other matches.

Please leave the amateur epidemiology to the other online fora I have left.
This place has been one of the last bastions of resistance among the Irish online channels I use. Please keep it that way.

[munster#1]

With 182 cases of Covid announced in Dublin today, I wonder if a lockdown might be imminent, thus putting a big spanner in the works for this and other matches.

Please leave the amateur epidemiology to the other online fora I have left.
This place has been one of the last bastions of resistance among the Irish online channels I use. Please keep it that way.

Just sharing an observation that would have a direct impact on rugby in this country.
Looking at the trend as opposed to the daily number, it is clear that cases are steadily rising in Dublin and Limerick.
You do not need to be a professional epidemiologist to see that.

If you don’t like a post you can always just not respond, but to ask someone not to post something that may or may not come to fruition would be counter productive on a discussions board.

[curates_egg]

It's a very specific discussion thread about a game. Please focus on the game if you want to contribute. And don't give the moderators any unnecessary work.

The internet is full of places where you can debate with other Irish amateur epidemiologists, if that's what tickles your fancy. It doesn't tickle mine, which is why I have left them. So please - a genuine request - keep it off this last bastion for me.

[Oldschool]

Track and Trace.
It's becoming very obvious that very few people including most of our politicians and worse still even some of our epidemiologists understand what exactly Track and Trace will achieve and what its' limitations are.
T and T is quite simply a tool or an aid in the fight against COVID. It is nowhere near being a solution.
T and T has become the phoney war distracting from the real issue.

The MESSAGE has been confused from time to time because on more than one occasion the wrong message has been given - Masks anyone.
It is therefore vital to give the correct message and equally important in a timely manner.

Information is power is an old cliche.
NPHET are being very minimalist with the information they provide to the public.
In the beginning, the only information being released was the number of cases and that they were in the North, South, East or West of the country.
They wouldn't even tell us what county the cases were occurring in.
Not a lot has changed although now we are at least told what counties the cases are occurring in.
However, If you live in Dublin that almost equates to telling you the number of cases are in the East of the country.
Basically NPHET are telling us they don't trust us and the problem with that approach is that as time goes on the trust of the people is being lost.
This is bad for everyone.
Do as we say but don't expect any explanation as to why. Maybe they don't have an explanation and are just shooting in the dark.
Anyway that's just speculation.

Information - What kind of information would the public find useful.
Well let's start with schools (Thank heaven they were opened) and continue with staycations.
The law of unexpected consequences surely applies.
There is a likely correlation being staycations and an increase in cases.
That's fine, understand the dynamic and you can account for it and perhaps try to adjust behaviour with a more informed message.
BUT NPHET need to admit that there is a dynamic and explain it because very soon it will be mid term break and you all know what that means, more staycations. Then give some advice. People will understand and most of them will respond in a positive way.

There is also a correlation between the opening of schools and increase in cases, relax it's not in the schools.
So the question has to be asked, what is that correlation.
We've been given a clue, the cases are being brought into our homes from the community and so there is an increase in clusters in our homes.
So what has that got to do with the schools if it's nothing to do with schools?
A very good question.
If we knew the answer we might be able to control and slow down the increase in cases
The answer could, however, require some very nifty footwork.
It's very likely that because children are back at school, their parents have more time to do the things they weren't able to do while their children were at home. At the very least they were constrained.
So what are the parents doing.
Another cliche, the devil makes work for idle hands.
Out meeting up for coffee, a bit of shopping, who knows maybe a clandestine meeting up with a "friend" that they haven't seen in a while (got that idea from the telly tbh)
As I said a very tricky one but somehow the right message needs to be transmitted.
I'll duck now but just before I do. I'm not blaming NPHET too much, the politicians have given them no cover and lets face it who wants to be in a firing line.

[Peg Leg]

There is also a correlation between the opening of schools and increase in cases, relax it's not in the schools.

I know of one school that is closed with 9 teachers testing positive and over 14 students in one class.

[Oldschool]

Track and Trace.
It's becoming very obvious that very few people including most of our politicians and worse still even some of our epidemiologists understand what exactly Track and Trace will achieve and what its' limitations are.
T and T is quite simply a tool or an aid in the fight against COVID. It is nowhere near being a solution.
T and T has become the phoney war distracting from the real issue.

The MESSAGE has been confused from time to time because on more than one occasion the wrong message has been given - Masks anyone.
It is therefore vital to give the correct message and equally important in a timely manner.

Information is power is an old cliche.
NPHET are being very minimalist with the information they provide to the public.
In the beginning, the only information being released was the number of cases and that they were in the North, South, East or West of the country.
They wouldn't even tell us what county the cases were occurring in.
Not a lot has changed although now we are at least told what counties the cases are occurring in.
However, If you live in Dublin that almost equates to telling you the number of cases are in the East of the country.
Basically NPHET are telling us they don't trust us and the problem with that approach is that as time goes on the trust of the people is being lost.
This is bad for everyone.
Do as we say but don't expect any explanation as to why. Maybe they don't have an explanation and are just shooting in the dark.
Anyway that's just speculation.

Information - What kind of information would the public find useful.
Well let's start with schools (Thank heaven they were opened) and continue with staycations.
The law of unexpected consequences surely applies.
There is a likely correlation being staycations and an increase in cases.
That's fine, understand the dynamic and you can account for it and perhaps try to adjust behaviour with a more informed message.
BUT NPHET need to admit that there is a dynamic and explain it because very soon it will be mid term break and you all know what that means, more staycations. Then give some advice. People will understand and most of them will respond in a positive way.

There is also a correlation between the opening of schools and increase in cases, relax it's mostly not in the schools.
So the question has to be asked, what is that correlation.
We've been given a clue, the cases are being brought into our homes from the community and so there is an increase in clusters in our homes.
So what has that got to do with the schools if it's nothing to do with schools?
A very good question.
If we knew the answer we might be able to control and slow down the increase in cases
The answer could, however, require some very nifty footwork.
It's very likely that because children are back at school, their parents have more time to do the things they weren't able to do while their children were at home. At the very least they were constrained.
So what are the parents doing.
Another cliche, the devil makes work for idle hands.
Out meeting up for coffee, a bit of shopping, who knows maybe a clandestine meeting up with a "friend" that they haven't seen in a while (got that idea from the telly tbh)
As I said a very tricky one but somehow the right message needs to be transmitted.
I'll duck now but just before I do. I'm not blaming NPHET too much, the politicians have given them no cover and lets face it who wants to be in a firing line.

Fixed.
Thanks Peg Leg for pointing that out to me. I wouldn't want to mislead people.

[Oldschool]

DP

[Ruckedtobits]

Is there a need for a fundamental review of the national response to Covid-19?

We are now approaching the rate of infection seen in late April but our hospital admissions are very much lower than during that April period.

Secondly, the apparent recovery by Trump from his infection has been accomplished by a specific regimen of treatment. Could such treatment be administered internationally?

What proportion of current positive tests in Ireland are asymptomatic? What proportion of asymptomatic carriers have been confirmed as the source of further infection?

The proportion of positive cases among the under 45 population is much higher than it was in April / May and the anecdotal evidence is that a significant % of this group are presenting asymptomatically. Is it therefore appropriate to change the treatment and isolation protocols for this group and thus reduce the impact of the virus on the medical services?

The main burden of surviving and dealing with the pandemic is falling on the older population but the financial impact is being borne by the under 25 cohort. How can this equation be balanced? Is there any innovation in our thinking that can solve this dilemma?

[Oldschool]

Excellent questions RTB.
Questions that Tony Holohan should have asked himself before.....
Dieter and Lambert were not impressed with the idea of going to Level 5.
In the UK 85% of cases are asymptomatic.
In Ireland you'll get a comment about "the high number of asymptomatic cases" - show me the% lads.
Track and Trace (TaT) isn't working and is badly misunderstood and wasteful of resources.
It's a tool only, not a solution.
Superspreaders are the source of most cases whereas the virus would die out if all spreaders (cases) were asymptomatic.
Therefore TaT should be focused on the superspreaders.

RTB you've raised a whole load of questions that simply haven't been discussed but need to be.
Let the doctors look after our internal health and let the scientists deal with the physical and technical problems of preventing, reducing and lessening the danger from COVID.
Wearing masks would be a good place to start and we don't need Tony Holohan and his team to tell us that or drag their feet about telling us.
He and his team are still not wearing masks at their daily press conference.

[Peg Leg]

I'd say Donald Trumps treatment costs about 10k per dose and requires hospitalisation and therefore not an option.

When they know what exactly makes people react to cv19 we can move to strategic shelter etc. I will never forget watching my 36 yr old super healthy wife crying for breath.

We will never (nor will the hse) know the number of asymptomatic cases. Nicola took Ill in March, at the time getting a test without symptoms was impossible, but we were still kissing and sharing a bed up to diagnosis and must assume that my 2 children and I have had it. We certainly isolated as though we did.

Test and trace is the best means of preventing spread. A lack of trust in the state is the reason it will never be embraced to the extent that it will perform to it's actual capability.

Suisse of this parish shared a post about how he is being kept informed on a daily basis in SK and the difference is mind blowing.

[blockhead]

I'd say Donald Trumps treatment costs about 10k per dose and requires hospitalisation and therefore not an option.

When they know what exactly makes people react to cv19 we can move to strategic shelter etc. I will never forget watching my 36 yr old super healthy wife crying for breath.

We will never (nor will the hse) know the number of asymptomatic cases. Nicola took I'll in March, at the time getting a test without symptoms was impossible, but we were still kissing and sharing a bed up to diagnosis and must assume that my 2 children and I have had it. We certainly isolated as though we did.

Test and trace is the best means of preventing spread. A lack of trust in the state is the reason it will never be embraced to the extent that it will perform to it's actual capability.

Suisse of this parish shared a post about how he is being kept informed on a daily basis in SK and the difference is mind blowing.

Very sobering post Peg Leg.