Corona Virus

[Oldschool]

It's fair to say Peg Leg that anyone who posts here or just lurks would have sympathy for how you and others like RoboProp and your families have had experience of COVID.
However it is necessary to have discussion about how best to tackle the problem that is COVID because if we don't we're going to find ourselves back to square one.
TaT isn't a solution and it certainly isn't the only solution.
There are many pieces to the solution jig saw.
One of them is to learn from our experiences.
Quite obviously the CMO hasn't.
Just to consider TaT.
TaT is at its most effective early on in a pandemic when case numbers are small. Because you can throw whatever resources that are available and go for broke.
It's unlikely that enough, if any, people understood that.
Or even understood what an effective track and trace system could do and what it's limitations might be.
Another time where TaT might be effective would be after a wave where there might still be some hotspots and again it's a go for broke on the hotspots.
A third possibility might be around now.
If level 3 restrictions start to have an impact, ( I'd suspect they needed to be applied to counties or parts of counties bordering Dublin in order to copperfasten the improvement in Dublin) then counties with particularly bad situations could get a higher priority.
A fourth possibility might be to, starting in Kerry to concentrate TaT in order to suppress COVID and then expand to other counties.
QwBut it's very important to know that for TaT to work the TaTters need to know what the objective is.
What what I'm understanding they don't.
Aside from all of that.
Masks, social distancing and Hygiene in that order are absolutely essential.
AND to underpin all of the above is the absolute necessity to let the general public know what is going i where on in the communities they live.
You, if I understood you correctly, have said as much.
I've said, I think, this before.
NPHET have maps available to them indicating where the local hotspots are.
Why not give this information to the general population.
And if anyone thinks that I and many like me wouldn't know what to do with the information then try me.
I live in Bray, basically a satellite of Dublin with a higher incidence of COVID than quite a few Local Electoral Areas than some in Dublin.
The rest of Wicklow has significantly lower rates.
When Dublin went to level 3, Bray should have gone with it.
By Bray I mean the area between the N11, the coastline and the Southern Cross road. Very easy to identify and police.
NPHET have said that they don't want to leave the 65+ isolated.
Like are they for f^cking real, most of us are keeping ourselves to ourselves.
Sure we go out for walks, shopping etc.
Most people who consider themselves in the high risk categories are being careful.
The nursing homes are where it's going to be at this winter. TaT won't help much here. Testing will but, and it's a huge ask, the staff and suppliers, even a HIQA inspector are the people who can really make the difference.
Sorry for the ramble but my biggest fear is that there is no discussion and that it's a case of "we know what we're doing and just leave it to us"
That attitude worries me.
One final question and I really would like to hear what opinion people have on this.
Why did Leo put the boot into Holohan.
Because he did and it was totally out of character.
So WHY. Why did he think it was so necessary to do something like that so publicly.

[Peg Leg]

It's fair to say Peg Leg that anyone who posts here or just lurks would have sympathy for how you and others like RoboProp and your families have had experience of COVID.
However it is necessary to have discussion about how best to tackle the problem that is COVID because if we don't we're going to find ourselves back to square one.
TaT isn't a solution and it certainly isn't the only solution.
There are many pieces to the solution jig saw.
One of them is to learn from our experiences.
Quite obviously the CMO hasn't.
Just to consider TaT.
TaT is at its most effective early on in a pandemic when case numbers are small. Because you can throw whatever resources that are available and go for broke.
It's unlikely that enough, if any, people understood that.
Or even understood what an effective track and trace system could do and what it's limitations might be.
Another time where TaT might be effective would be after a wave where there might still be some hotspots and again it's a go for broke on the hotspots.
A third possibility might be around now.
If level 3 restrictions start to have an impact, ( I'd suspect they needed to be applied to counties or parts of counties bordering Dublin in order to copperfasten the improvement in Dublin) then counties with particularly bad situations could get a higher priority.
A fourth possibility might be to, starting in Kerry to concentrate TaT in order to suppress COVID and then expand to other counties.
QwBut it's very important to know that for TaT to work the TaTters need to know what the objective is.
What what I'm understanding they don't.
Aside from all of that.
Masks, social distancing and Hygiene in that order are absolutely essential.
AND to underpin all of the above is the absolute necessity to let the general public know what is going i where on in the communities they live.
You, if I understood you correctly, have said as much.
I've said, I think, this before.
NPHET have maps available to them indicating where the local hotspots are.
Why not give this information to the general population.
And if anyone thinks that I and many like me wouldn't know what to do with the information then try me.
I live in Bray, basically a satellite of Dublin with a higher incidence of COVID than quite a few Local Electoral Areas than some in Dublin.
The rest of Wicklow has significantly lower rates.
When Dublin went to level 3, Bray should have gone with it.
By Bray I mean the area between the N11, the coastline and the Southern Cross road. Very easy to identify and police.
NPHET have said that they don't want to leave the 65+ isolated.
Like are they for f^cking real, most of us are keeping ourselves to ourselves.
Sure we go out for walks, shopping etc.
Most people who consider themselves in the high risk categories are being careful.
The nursing homes are where it's going to be at this winter. TaT won't help much here. Testing will but, and it's a huge ask, the staff and suppliers, even a HIQA inspector are the people who can really make the difference.
Sorry for the ramble but my biggest fear is that there is no discussion and that it's a case of "we know what we're doing and just leave it to us"
That attitude worries me.
One final question and I really would like to hear what opinion people have on this.
Why did Leo put the boot into Holohan.
Because he did and it was totally out of character.
So WHY. Why did he think it was so necessary to do something like that so publicly.

I do like reading your posts on this, ideas right or wrong are all good. You're correct about TaT but if it was done right and isolation guidelines were followed the numbers would drop massively, but neither are happening.
Leo was right, Tony scared the sh!t out of the country and went to the media with his threat in what would appear to be an effort to strong arm the gov.

[heno]

It's fair to say Peg Leg that anyone who posts here or just lurks would have sympathy for how you and others like RoboProp and your families have had experience of COVID.
However it is necessary to have discussion about how best to tackle the problem that is COVID because if we don't we're going to find ourselves back to square one.
TaT isn't a solution and it certainly isn't the only solution.
There are many pieces to the solution jig saw.
One of them is to learn from our experiences.
Quite obviously the CMO hasn't.
Just to consider TaT.
TaT is at its most effective early on in a pandemic when case numbers are small. Because you can throw whatever resources that are available and go for broke.
It's unlikely that enough, if any, people understood that.
Or even understood what an effective track and trace system could do and what it's limitations might be.
Another time where TaT might be effective would be after a wave where there might still be some hotspots and again it's a go for broke on the hotspots.
A third possibility might be around now.
If level 3 restrictions start to have an impact, ( I'd suspect they needed to be applied to counties or parts of counties bordering Dublin in order to copperfasten the improvement in Dublin) then counties with particularly bad situations could get a higher priority.
A fourth possibility might be to, starting in Kerry to concentrate TaT in order to suppress COVID and then expand to other counties.
QwBut it's very important to know that for TaT to work the TaTters need to know what the objective is.
What what I'm understanding they don't.
Aside from all of that.
Masks, social distancing and Hygiene in that order are absolutely essential.
AND to underpin all of the above is the absolute necessity to let the general public know what is going i where on in the communities they live.
You, if I understood you correctly, have said as much.
I've said, I think, this before.
NPHET have maps available to them indicating where the local hotspots are.
Why not give this information to the general population.
And if anyone thinks that I and many like me wouldn't know what to do with the information then try me.
I live in Bray, basically a satellite of Dublin with a higher incidence of COVID than quite a few Local Electoral Areas than some in Dublin.
The rest of Wicklow has significantly lower rates.
When Dublin went to level 3, Bray should have gone with it.
By Bray I mean the area between the N11, the coastline and the Southern Cross road. Very easy to identify and police.
NPHET have said that they don't want to leave the 65+ isolated.
Like are they for f^cking real, most of us are keeping ourselves to ourselves.
Sure we go out for walks, shopping etc.
Most people who consider themselves in the high risk categories are being careful.
The nursing homes are where it's going to be at this winter. TaT won't help much here. Testing will but, and it's a huge ask, the staff and suppliers, even a HIQA inspector are the people who can really make the difference.
Sorry for the ramble but my biggest fear is that there is no discussion and that it's a case of "we know what we're doing and just leave it to us"
That attitude worries me.
One final question and I really would like to hear what opinion people have on this.
Why did Leo put the boot into Holohan.
Because he did and it was totally out of character.
So WHY. Why did he think it was so necessary to do something like that so publicly.

I do like reading your posts on this, ideas right or wrong are all good. You're correct about TaT but if it was done right and isolation guidelines were followed the numbers would drop massively, but neither are happening.
Leo was right, Tony scared the sh!t out of the country and went to the media with his threat in what would appear to be an effort to strong arm the gov.

I agree Leo was right to say what he did, when he did. At the time it was hard to understand how Tony H didn't have the foresight to pick up the phone and discuss before the letter was sent.
Now that we know he did, it looks like the mess is firmly at Stephen Donnelly's door.
I wouldn't be so certain the leak came from nphet. The way government is run these days, everything is leaked as a matter of course. Again, prime suspect for me is some poor civil servant working for Donnelly.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[Dave Cahill]

"The Ship of State is the only ship that leaks from the top" - Jay and Lynn

[fourthirtythree]

Leak was from Leo.

So technically not the top...

[Oldschoolsocks]

Leak was from Leo.

So technically not the top...

Was it?

[Ruckedtobits]

More information yesterday and today but all of it generating new questions which demand answers and the shorthand utilised by news reporters doesn't facilitate understanding.

Our testing positive % has almost doubled in a week to 6%. What proportion of +ive tests are coming from GP referrals and what proportion from contact tracing?

The Dublin R number is now calculated to be 1. The remainder of the country is calculated to be 1.6. Is the difference due to who is being tested or the proportion of each respective population being identified by Contact Tracing?

Has NPHET identified where (or how) the increasing over age 65 cohort are contracting the virus?

The climatic conditions across Europe are now closest to those experienced in March / April, the period which Italy & Spain experienced almost exponential growth in infection. Thus far, it appears that Africa has not experienced a second wave. Is there a climatic factor involved?

Lisening to commentary on the N Ireland figures this evening, is there any rational explanation for the extraordinary infection rate they are experiencing? What are the most likely differences in how their citizens are being infected

[Ruckedtobits]

More information yesterday and today but all of it generating new questions which demand answers and the shorthand utilised by news reporters doesn't facilitate understanding.

Our testing positive % has almost doubled in a week to 6%. What proportion of +ive tests are coming from GP referrals and what proportion from contact tracing?

The Dublin R number is now calculated to be 1. The remainder of the country is calculated to be 1.6. Is the difference due to who is being tested or the proportion of each respective population being identified by Contact Tracing?

Has NPHET identified where (or how) the increasing over age 65 cohort are contracting the virus?

The climatic conditions across Europe are now closest to those experienced in March / April, the period which Italy & Spain experienced almost exponential growth in infection. Thus far, it appears that Africa has not experienced a second wave. Is there a climatic factor involved?

Lisening to commentary on the N Ireland figures this evening, is there any rational explanation for the extraordinary infection rate they are experiencing? What are the most likely differences in how their citizens are being infected?

[Oldschool]

Not to me mention how many tests are being sent to Germany, when, from where and how/when are they being fed back into the reporting system.
Once again Holohan fails to mention the need to wear masks in his despatches.
I hope when we have the inevitable enquiry that he is grilled over his attitude to masks or should I say the euphemistic face coverings.

[domhnallj]

Lisening to commentary on the N Ireland figures this evening, is there any rational explanation for the extraordinary infection rate they are experiencing? What are the most likely differences in how their citizens are being infected?

Just picking up on this point. I work at Queen's Uni Belfast and we have a testing site on-campus. I popped along to get a test (to make sure I am clear before I spend the next few weeks in Dublin at Phoenix Park for the rut). I was asked if I had symptoms, and because I don't have at least two, I was told to take a hike. No-one here is being tested unless they are already highly likely to be infected. If the covid tracker flags you as a close contact, you are told to isolate for two weeks but no test unless you have at least two symptoms.

[paddyor]

Leak was from Leo.

So technically not the top...

Nah it was NPHET. They did the same thing with moving Dublin to level 3. Even had Nolan on twitter explaining(pre cabinet meeting) that the data was misleading because they hadn't bothered to test and trace beyond 48 hours(haing demanded restaurants keep 28 days of records). Ronan Glynn was in front of a dail committee asking and answering his own questions. Don't pretend they aren't au fait with getting a message out there.

[paddyor]

I do like reading your posts on this, ideas right or wrong are all good. You're correct about TaT but if it was done right and isolation guidelines were followed the numbers would drop massively, but neither are happening.
Leo was right, Tony scared the sh!t out of the country and went to the media with his threat in what would appear to be an effort to strong arm the gov.

The TAT failure is ridiculous. It was known it was failing back in July when cases were still low and nothign was done to change that. The fact they were only able to go back 2 days and were telling pubs etc to keep records for 28 days is farcical. Apparently it's really hard to do because people basically need counselling when they get contacted and become really defensive. Probably has a lot to do wwith the public perception that people who contract it have only themselves to blame(70%) and the general air of nastiness on social media. Govt/MPHET are partially to blame but social media gonna social media. There's a genre of tweet on twiiter that's ver "Well this is clearly goodies vs baddies and I'm a goodie, are you?". The phrase virtue signalling is massively over used and it is in fact often a good thing(It's actually good to signal disapproval for a lot of things and it's important that politicians do it from time to time), but in this case it's toxic IMO.

[paddyor]

I've come around to the view that the disease was more prevalent in March/April but we were less on the trail of the disease than we are now.

I think the PCR test is too sensitive and it's picking up dead samples and reporting them as live(i.e people who had the disease and are no longer infected).There's a debate going on about this now outside Ireland. The Spanish have changed their case definition to symptomatic and testing psoitive from a PCR test at 35 cycles. We test at 45-50 cycles which is incredibly sensitive and can pick up strands of dead RNA from a previous infection. My laymans understanding is that it's not as simple as moving a dial, you need to change the testing kits, rejig the machines and more besides which wouldn't be practical given the need to maintin testing.

I also think we aren't doing enough to account for false positives. De Gascun has claimed our false positive rate is .2% but the Lancet and others internationally have it at .8-2%Or to borrow NPHETs phraseology, it's between 4 and 10 times more inaccurate. Not to be glib, but that's a big disparity if your policy is based on +ive cases.

I don't want to get into the "with and of" debate but the disparity between how we define deaths between flu and covid is quite shocking. Positive for covid - > covid, Flu -> whateve else.

[Oldschool]

TAT and what it can do has been totally oversold.
It's simply not a solution and never will be unless you are able to do what China is about to do.
LOCKDOWN a city of 9m people and test everyone.
By LOCKDOWN I'm guessing curfews etc.
Western governments made the mistake of overselling TAT and the experts are the culprits because they just keep upping the ante on TAT.
Enough is never enough.
The use of TAT needs to be optimised so that a two day look back becomes an 8 day look back on a much smaller number of base cases, cases at the very least who are symptomatic.
Used to hunt down likely super spreaders ie symptomatic cases. The stats say that if there were only asymptomatic cases the virus would die off.
PR has pointed at the testing "technology".
You have to ask yourself why, if Spain and presumably others are changing their testing regime, aren't we?
The Medical profession may be experts but they are not the only experts we need and the problem is they think they are the solution or have the solution.
They don't, not even close.
The CMO and maybe NPHET, but not necessarily too, seems to think lockdown and quash is the answer.
Well he should look at what China is doing and ask himself does he think that's even remotely possible in the Western world.
Leo was right and I hope he sharpened his studs beforehand.
It wouldn't surprise me if he was hoping a resignation might follow, not his own I might hasten to add.
On the accuracy of the testing, if there is a significant number of false positives then -
How significant.
How many wasted tests are being performed. Not a criticism just spmething that needs to be addressed.
.
.21 Should we just stop testing unless the testee has at least one symptom (or more than 1 as D referred to in an earlier post) or special status applies, like health care staff etc.

[Peg Leg]

I do like reading your posts on this, ideas right or wrong are all good. You're correct about TaT but if it was done right and isolation guidelines were followed the numbers would drop massively, but neither are happening.
Leo was right, Tony scared the sh!t out of the country and went to the media with his threat in what would appear to be an effort to strong arm the gov.

The TAT failure is ridiculous. It was known it was failing back in July when cases were still low and nothign was done to change that. The fact they were only able to go back 2 days and were telling pubs etc to keep records for 28 days is farcical. Apparently it's really hard to do because people basically need counselling when they get contacted and become really defensive. Probably has a lot to do wwith the public perception that people who contract it have only themselves to blame(70%) and the general air of nastiness on social media. Govt/MPHET are partially to blame but social media gonna social media. There's a genre of tweet on twiiter that's ver "Well this is clearly goodies vs baddies and I'm a goodie, are you?". The phrase virtue signalling is massively over used and it is in fact often a good thing(It's actually good to signal disapproval for a lot of things and it's important that politicians do it from time to time), but in this case it's toxic IMO.

It's bananas, my own brother in-law just outed himself as a CV19 skeptic & conservative idealist recently over refusing to give his personal details to a cafe. Like FFS, we are all triggered by the virus and it's impact why is doing the minimum so difficult. In March there seemed to be consensus regarding the need to respond collectively and responsibly, creeping realities have now changed that as everyone has pushed their boundaries and been emboldened by not (to their knowledge) been infected. Outside of those dealing with family members with underlying conditions, not one person in the country has obeyed the rules, take it on the chin to err is human but acknowledge it and do your level best.

As an aside, did anyone clock the Popes comments last week?
"The marketplace, by itself, cannot resolve every problem, however much we are asked to believe this dogma of neoliberal faith," he wrote in the letter, published Saturday. "Whatever the challenge, this impoverished and repetitive school of thought always offers the same recipes. Neoliberalism simply reproduces itself by resorting to the magic theories of 'spillover' or 'trickle' – without using the name – as the only solution to societal problems." Link to article

Apparently this pandemic has been the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind and the wealth has only gone one direction. I am starting to become a believer in MLK's lesser discussed battle for Economic Justice “Economic justice, required a land where men will not take necessities to give luxuries to the few,” and “where all our gifts and resources are held not for ourselves alone but as instruments of service for the rest of humanity.”

[paddyor]

Is that really surprsing? At one point there was 30m on unemployment in the US, we'll probably top 20% here. So by addition and subration the wealthy are wealthier. This is a bit like looking at GDP numbers and seeing them going up and deducing that everything must be good(or in this case bad) though. People have been made redundant by govt intervention though it's likely many of the same would've been made redundant by market reaction anyway. A lot of which the state has cushioned. People are wondering online why rents aren't in freefall in Dublin and the answer is the state intervened to keep rents depressed pre-covid and then had the TWSS during Covid ergo no deflation. States helmed by people the pope would likely label neoliberals so like what the hell is he on about?

I think the neoliberal label can be retired now, it's about as useful as marxist.

[Oldschool]

On the transfer of wealth (debt), the devil is in the detail.
just listening to RTE, personal savings in Ireland have risen by 11bn this year a lot more than an average year I imagine.
Some of those savings are due to government handouts, some are due to literally not being able to spend income other on necessities during the lockdown period and some are due to people tightening their belts to build up a bit of a buffer.
Some of the savings may even be transient, deferred rents and mortgage repayments perhaps (the so called holiday)
I don't fully understand how the financial markets work and in particular the money lending side of it.
But if you borrow money and spend it on consumption and not on investment then that's the rocky road.
The wealthy get richer either way and the consumer gets poorer if the consumption is based on debt.
So some of the poverty is caused by personal bad choices.
Some of the wealth is pure luck. Bill Gates and Microsoft but the benefit to everyone has been huge.

[Peg Leg]

On the transfer of wealth (debt), the devil is in the detail.
just listening to RTE, personal savings in Ireland have risen by 11bn this year a lot more than an average year I imagine.
Some of those savings are due to government handouts, some are due to literally not being able to spend income other on necessities during the lockdown period and some are due to people tightening their belts to build up a bit of a buffer.
Some of the savings may even be transient, deferred rents and mortgage repayments perhaps (the so called holiday)
I don't fully understand how the financial markets work and in particular the money lending side of it.
But if you borrow money and spend it on consumption and not on investment then that's the rocky road.
The wealthy get richer either way and the consumer gets poorer if the consumption is based on debt.
So some of the poverty is caused by personal bad choices.
Some of the wealth is pure luck. Bill Gates and Microsoft but the benefit to everyone has been huge.

40 million Americans filed for unemployment during the pandemic, but billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars.

Not sure where the benefit to humanity is in any of that tbh OS

[Oldschool]

On the transfer of wealth (debt), the devil is in the detail.
just listening to RTE, personal savings in Ireland have risen by 11bn this year a lot more than an average year I imagine.
Some of those savings are due to government handouts, some are due to literally not being able to spend income other on necessities during the lockdown period and some are due to people tightening their belts to build up a bit of a buffer.
Some of the savings may even be transient, deferred rents and mortgage repayments perhaps (the so called holiday)
I don't fully understand how the financial markets work and in particular the money lending side of it.
But if you borrow money and spend it on consumption and not on investment then that's the rocky road.
The wealthy get richer either way and the consumer gets poorer if the consumption is based on debt.
So some of the poverty is caused by personal bad choices.
Some of the wealth is pure luck. Bill Gates and Microsoft but the benefit to everyone has been huge.

40 million Americans filed for unemployment during the pandemic, but billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars.

Not sure where the benefit to humanity is in any of that tbh OS

I didn't write the article so not my words or sentiments.
Also it didn't come across as coherent.
The 40m extra unemployment is because of COVID.
What's your point. What are your solutions.

The stock market was originally (maybe because it was probably created in a smoke filled room) to raise capital for investment purposes.
Does it perform that task?
Yes and No
Yes it raises capital and even at that there is speculative investment. There is risk and no guarantees.
No risk no reward.
The No bit - in general terms you tell me.
Because the No bit is where the problem is.
What part of the stock market would you have problems with?
If you don't know then you're not alone but there are millions of jobs involved, that's not a justification because it's a waste of talent that could be better employed elsewhere.
The stock market is like a big casino and there are quite a few dodgy "games" going on. Dodgy not illegal, all regulated - so much for regulation.
But what are your solutions?
What do you think is going on even.
Where's your analysis. That'll keep you busy for a few years

[Peg Leg]

On the transfer of wealth (debt), the devil is in the detail.
just listening to RTE, personal savings in Ireland have risen by 11bn this year a lot more than an average year I imagine.
Some of those savings are due to government handouts, some are due to literally not being able to spend income other on necessities during the lockdown period and some are due to people tightening their belts to build up a bit of a buffer.
Some of the savings may even be transient, deferred rents and mortgage repayments perhaps (the so called holiday)
I don't fully understand how the financial markets work and in particular the money lending side of it.
But if you borrow money and spend it on consumption and not on investment then that's the rocky road.
The wealthy get richer either way and the consumer gets poorer if the consumption is based on debt.
So some of the poverty is caused by personal bad choices.
Some of the wealth is pure luck. Bill Gates and Microsoft but the benefit to everyone has been huge.

40 million Americans filed for unemployment during the pandemic, but billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars.

Not sure where the benefit to humanity is in any of that tbh OS

What's your point. The existence of billionaires is unethical
What are your solutions. I have no clue how to unfurl the ball of barbed wire that is the current system. I think the first thing I would look at is the media and its ownership network/structure
What do you think is going on even. https://inequality.org/facts/global-inequality/