Corona Virus

[Oldschoolsocks]

How difficult is it to train your average Joe Citizen.
Is it just not a runner or could it be done.
It certainly does take a bit of getting used to.

Seeing as we still have the same bunch of mouth breathers doing non essential travel and not maintaining social distancing, I'd say near on impossible.

You’re eating your time

[Oldschool]

Let's hope this goes well.
Roche are not light weights.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/per ... 7?mode=amp

[Oldschool]

World rugby to enlist the help of Munster and Ireland legend Ronan O'Gara in drafting new guidelines regarding reducing social distancing during international rugby.
England and Lions legend Bill Beaumont has said "when it comes to avoiding contact during a test match no player is better qualified than Rog"

[Ruckedtobits]

What are the chances that the personal hygiene disciplines promoted against Corona Virus have contributed to the dramatic fall in visits to GPs?

Secondary factors may Include the enhanced exercise regimes, reduced alcohol consumption, improved dietary practices and reduced stress in lifestyles.

These are all suppositions which it may be difficult to validate in the short term but initially there is anecdotal evidence emerging, from a small number of GP practices who have conducted telephone surveys of regular patients, that illness has been substantially reduced in the past two months.

So keep washing the hands and coughing into your elbow. These may be keeping you well.

[Oldschool]

The Leaving Cert exams should go ahead.
There is absolutely no reason why they should not go ahead. A mountain is been made out of a mole hill.
Newspaper Headline "Students don't want to do the Exams" - Turkeys, voting and Christmas come to mind.

Make the decision and get on with making the necessary preparations. There are no show stoppers.

Having got off to a good start the rot is starting to set in.

1. Before easing restrictions on the 70+ a campaign in the preceding week was required to advise on and emphasize the need for them, in particular, but everyone to wear masks.

2. Testing:
Capacity isn't the issue.
The issue is when, where and who to test.
The resistance to carrying out sample testing is mind boggling and you don't need to carry out 8k a day to do this.

Mistakes have been made lets not compound them.
Instead learn from them.

[cormac]

What are the chances that the personal hygiene disciplines promoted against Corona Virus have contributed to the dramatic fall in visits to GPs?

Secondary factors may Include the enhanced exercise regimes, reduced alcohol consumption, improved dietary practices and reduced stress in lifestyles.

These are all suppositions which it may be difficult to validate in the short term but initially there is anecdotal evidence emerging, from a small number of GP practices who have conducted telephone surveys of regular patients, that illness has been substantially reduced in the past two months.

So keep washing the hands and coughing into your elbow. These may be keeping you well.

I'd say it's far more down to the fact that people haven't been mingling together as much as usual. No busy offices, no kids at school or creches, no trips on crowded public transport etc.

A few years ago I was out of work for close to 18 months and barely had a sniffle in that time. Caught a heavy cold within about two months of being back in an office.

[Peg Leg]

What are the chances that the personal hygiene disciplines promoted against Corona Virus have contributed to the dramatic fall in visits to GPs?

Secondary factors may Include the enhanced exercise regimes, reduced alcohol consumption, improved dietary practices and reduced stress in lifestyles.

These are all suppositions which it may be difficult to validate in the short term but initially there is anecdotal evidence emerging, from a small number of GP practices who have conducted telephone surveys of regular patients, that illness has been substantially reduced in the past two months.

So keep washing the hands and coughing into your elbow. These may be keeping you well.

I'd say it's far more down to the fact that people haven't been mingling together as much as usual. No busy offices, no kids at school or creches, no trips on crowded public transport etc.

A few years ago I was out of work for close to 18 months and barely had a sniffle in that time. Caught a heavy cold within about two months of being back in an office.

This and the fact that people are less inclined to visit GP's or A&E for ailments that they would have otherwise made the trip for, reasoning being twofold- Medical staff are known to be under severe pressure and people don't want to visit a place they are more likely to pick up CV19.

[domhnallj]

Let's hope this goes well.
Roche are not light weights.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/per ... 7?mode=amp

New study shows that infected people (well most of them) produce antibodies; however, it is still unknown how long this lasts. Interesting caveat at the end of the abstract.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20085613v1

(usual buyer beware rules apply - this is a preprint not peer reviewed)

[domhnallj]

Interesting and fairly damning take on the modelling of Imperial and Ferguson's code for covid-sim.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie ... 5RZVd13Moc

I'd also recommend following the links given, they are eye-popping in places.

[FLIP]

Interesting and fairly damning take on the modelling of Imperial and Ferguson's code for covid-sim.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie ... 5RZVd13Moc

I'd also recommend following the links given, they are eye-popping in places.

As a software engineer there are problems with how they've developed the software and maintained it, however just because best practices were not followed by a scientist who is clearly not a software engineer doesn't mean the software used to model is not fit for purpose.

I'd also very highly question the bias of the source of this article and where its hosted.

[domhnallj]

Interesting and fairly damning take on the modelling of Imperial and Ferguson's code for covid-sim.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie ... 5RZVd13Moc

I'd also recommend following the links given, they are eye-popping in places.

As a software engineer there are problems with how they've developed the software and maintained it, however just because best practices were not followed by a scientist who is clearly not a software engineer doesn't mean the software used to model is not fit for purpose.

I'd also very highly question the bias of the source of this article and where its hosted.

Absolutely, the source is a major flag and I agree that academic models are usually rough and ready (mine are). That and poor old Ferguson is getting royally shafted by the establishment and MSM.

[Oldschool]

It's time for a review.
Item 1.
Yesterday 7th May France confirmed that a man had tested positive for COVID 19 on the 24th Dec 2019 which implies he was probably infected approx a week earlier.
It was also reported that source almost certainly originated in Charles DeGaulle Airport.
Yesterday in the Dail, Leo made a statement regarding this new information.
Yesterday the goalposts moved.
Assume Ireland's first case of COVID 19 actually occurred on the 1st January 2020.
Assume also that the number of cases only doubled every 3 days.
Assume there was only one imported case.
Based on the above assumptions then the number of cases in Ireland would have reached half a million by the 29th Feb, the date on which our first case was confirmed.

This begs a very obvious and simple question, which I have yet to hear being asked of the CMO and his team.
What impact will this new information have on your modelling and therefore advice to the government.
Leo should certainly be asking the CMO that question.

Item 2.
On 5th May restrictions on the 70+ citizens were eased.
Prior to this, at the very least, these citizens and any citizens coming into close proximity should have been strongly advise to wear masks.
An add campaign to that affect should have been run the week before.
Prevention is better than cure and given that the whole focus of the lockdown was about prevention it is very evident that the people calling the shots need to be reminded of this.
Sometimes a new face will do that.

Item 3.
Mentioning new faces.
The Lockdown was the easy bit.
Getting the country up and running again requires a different set of skills neither the HSE or the DOH are equipped to do this.
A massive input from private enterprise is required.
I'm begging here, please Leo and Tony ask for help.
There are huge untapped resources, creativity and willingness to get this country back on its' feet.
One of the golden rules of brainstorming is that negativity is not allowed. Let the country brainstorm.

Item 4.
Don't waste the opportunity that items 1,2 and 3 offer.

Item 5.
Have a good weekend and stay safe.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Well, at least you’ve found a different assumption to hang your musings on

[Oldschool]

Well, at least you’ve found a different assumption to hang your musings on

Right on cue.
The French report is not an assumption it's a fact.
Sticking your head in the sand as usual and ignoring the facts, how OSS of you.

[Ruckedtobits]

The absence, thus far, of peer review clearly limits the credibility of this article. Some of the comments within, including the assertion the 'insurance industry professionals' would be a more competent cohort to undertake such work, suggest a bias which further undermines the objectivity of the analysis.

That said, the details of the fundamental flaws within the work at Imperial and the explanations accredited to them to explain some of the short-comings are very shoddy. Notwithstanding their eminence and reputation in this field, the utilisation of modelling which results from such a flawed process cannot be supported.

However, this is just one commentary, albeit compiled by a specialist in a very complex field. Lacking any expertise in the area, one would always be dependant on expert interpretation and professional confirmation of such work. So for me the jury is out on such modelling at present and will remain so untill there is very substantial support offered by independent peer group.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Well, at least you’ve found a different assumption to hang your musings on

Right on cue.
The French report is not an assumption it's a fact.
Sticking your head in the sand as usual and ignoring the facts, how OSS of you.

So...
The assumptions you made about the first infection was an Jan 1st is I. The French report?

I fully expect you not to answer this question as usual, very old dog of you

[Oldschool]

Well, at least you’ve found a different assumption to hang your musings on

Right on cue.
The French report is not an assumption it's a fact.
Sticking your head in the sand as usual and ignoring the facts, how OSS of you.

So...
The assumptions you made about the first infection was an Jan 1st is I. The French report?

I fully expect you not to answer this question as usual, very old dog of you

I simply picked the 1st January because -
A. It seemed a reasonable assumption based on the date of the French report.
Assume for example that the first case in Ireland was actually two weeks later ie 15th January then the half million mark would be reached on the 14th March, IE just before our lockdown.
Does that make sense or seem reasonable?
As for me answering questions there's no obligation on me to do so.
I'd also add that you're not too handy at answering questions yourself. So check out that stye in your eye.

[Oldschoolsocks]

No, it is not reasonable to make any assumption beyond what has been published.

So...
I have answered all of your questions, can you please tell us what discrimination you have experienced as a white man?

[Oldschool]

No, it is not reasonable to make any assumption beyond what has been published.

So...
I have answered all of your questions, can you please tell us what discrimination you have experienced as a white man?

Your wrong, It's absolutely necessary to make assumptions and then test them.
Not for the first time you won't answer the question.
As for your question to me.
What discrimination are you referring to?
This is the COVID thread perhaps you'd post it elsewhere because COVID is far too important an issue to be sidetracked.

[Oldschoolsocks]

No, it is not reasonable to make any assumption beyond what has been published.

So...
I have answered all of your questions, can you please tell us what discrimination you have experienced as a white man?

Your wrong, It's absolutely necessary to make assumptions and then test them.
Not for the first time you won't answer the question.
As for your question to me.
What discrimination are you referring to?
This is the COVID thread perhaps you'd post it elsewhere because COVID is far too important an issue to be sidetracked.

You said blah blah blah discrimination against white people, now I’d like to know what discrimination you have experienced as a white man