France v Ireland 4.45pm Sat 3rd February 2018

[matt]

Are we talking about Kearney, Earls, Aki, Henshaw, Stockdale, Sexton, Murray, McGrath, Best(capt), Furlong, Henderson, Toner, O'Mahony, Van Der Flier, Stander with Bench of Healy, Cronin, John Ryan, James Ryan, Leavy, Marmion, Carbury, Larmour with Conway, Luke, Porter & Conan close to the 23.

If we win they would be confident at home to Italy, Wales & Scotland & set up last game v England. Wales have a lot of injuries to key players & despite their recent improvement think Scotland still weak in prop positions.

[CiaranIrl]

Pack: McGrath & Healy is probably a tight enough call, and I think it's quite hard to call 7 & 20 between Jordi, VDF & Leavy. I'd personally start VDF and have Jordi on the bench.

In the backline, the only question is on the right wing. Earls & Kearney are pretty nailed on, but Stockdale has been in ropey enough form for Ulster. It could be Conway instead, with Stockdale on the bench. McFadden is also a possibility. I'd be surprised to see Larmour on the bench before Italy.

If Stockdale and Earls do start, you get into the whole right wing vs left wing thing. I'd love if someone more knowledgeable than me could explain the role differences to me a bit better, but as I understand it, you tend to have more skillful players on the left who cut inside more, have lots of pace, can pass themselves etc - largely because most people are right handed and pass accordingly. Fitzgerald & Hickie, say. Then you have tall, athletic players who are good in the air on the right, partly because most out halves kick to the right. Bowe, Shaggy, say. Is this all it is? Anyex wingers around?

Anyway, Earls is much better on the left, and while Stockdale seems to have the George North right wing template going on, he hasn't played there at any high level. I know people always go with the, 'it shouldn't make a difference, there are top professionals' line', there's no escaping the fact that Earls is much, much better on the left.

[Ruckedtobits]

Earls and Conway for me at present with Earls on the left. Back-row is definitely a Joe call, possibly based on our line-out options. Personally, I'd go with JVdF beside PO'M and Stander. But if they don't have Picamoles, maybe the call is Conan, Stander and JVdF, i.e. two ball carriers and one tackler / link. But we lose a key line-out competitor which is the primary possession beloved of JS.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I reckon it'll be Earls and Stockdale starting but don't think I'd go with that. Earls is on fire but never looks as comfortable on the right. I'd say Conway is the best choice for the 14 jersey right now, and if you go for him on one wing then I think the size and power of Stockdale gives a better balance on the left. Like I said, doubt that will happen and just hope Earls brings his form to the right wing, if he does then we're laughing.

For the back row I'd start VDF too and would probably go with Jordi on the bench now. He's been in good form and has that versatility that nobody else does. If we had SOB starting, or Conan and Stander starting, then I'f go with Leavy to the bench. Leavy starting at 7 would open up a bench spot for Conan, but I'd be surprised if Josh doesn't start.

I'm sure Marmion and whoever misses out on the wing will bench but I'd go for Luke ahead of Marmion, and wouldn't be totally surprised if Larmour is involved. The way Joe was talking about him makes me think he's itching to get him involved. Even if it's not for this game, I suspect he'll play a bigger role in the tournament than others do. Stockdale or Earls will probably be covering centre, not ideal.

[Logorrhea]

Earls must start for me. Would like to see Conway in there, either on the right or at fullback.

[CiaranIrl]

I have to say, I'm nervous about this one for a whole host of reasons.

1. Our away record has been poor in the 6N in recent years. We've lost to all of Wales, Scotland, England and France in the last two tournaments.
2. We've only one there once twice this millenium. The famous Hattrick and then by the tightest of margins in 2014.
3. Our record winning margin is 7 points, which is what some bookies have given France as their handicap.
4. Despite their appalling recent record, a new coach can have a revitalising effect. See Saints vs Wasps for example.

Losing the first game is incredibly demoralising. Any slight over complacency and we'll lose. Yes, they'll have a young team, but that could work to their advantage. It's the older, lazy brigade that saw them go on a losing run.

[Oldschool]

The team Joe selects will reflect a number of things.
Away game selection.
Tactics to be used.
The way to beat France is to match them up front and test their fitness.
It has been noticeable this season that French teams have become vulnerable in the last 10 minutes of the 1st half and then in the last 15 minutes of the 2nd half.
However that only applies if their forwards have been given a hard time and their opposition have played a wide game.
It's easy to see Joe going for a very powerful BR of Stander Murphy and Conan and a conservative back 3 of Kearney Earls and McFadden.
The starting front five and bench is going to be interesting.
McGrath Best Furlong for their scrummaging.
Henderson Toner
Bench Healy Cronin Ryan
Ryan or Dillane is close enough call.
Leavy JVDF or POM on the bench. Experience will get this one but Joe likes JVDF.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Losing the first game is incredibly demoralising.

Obviously there are hundreds of factors that will go into what happens on Saturday and the fear of losing can affect people/teams differently but I really hope that losing our first game last year plays a big part in spurring us on this time. It was a horrible feeling as a fan with high expectations, so can only imagine how the players and coaches felt. Have a feeling that we'll be determined not to let it happen again and that we'll react positively. Also hope that our aggressive line speed can upset France sufficiently that they can't get into any patterns. They didn't even seem to have any in November so it'll be tough for them to get into a groove next week, and with a new ten and a new coach I reckon we could really make them suffer.

[kermischocolate]

Unusually the Stade de France is nowhere near a sellout for Saturday's game. A sign of disinterest from the French in their national side?

[artaneboy]

I have to say, I'm nervous about this one for a whole host of reasons.

1. Our away record has been poor in the 6N in recent years. We've lost to all of Wales, Scotland, England and France in the last two tournaments.
2. We've only one there once twice this millenium. The famous Hattrick and then by the tightest of margins in 2014.
3. Our record winning margin is 7 points, which is what some bookies have given France as their handicap.
4. Despite their appalling recent record, a new coach can have a revitalising effect. See Saints vs Wasps for example.

Losing the first game is incredibly demoralising. Any slight over complacency and we'll lose. Yes, they'll have a young team, but that could work to their advantage. It's the older, lazy brigade that saw them go on a losing run.

Don’t get the rationale for worry. We should win: based on the Autumn, we are playing well- they are playing poorly. The ECC matches demonstrated that (by and large) the form line from the AI remains. It’s not like Brunel has shown he can work wonders in terms of inspiration of a previously disorganised team.

Of course the 6N has bit of a logic all its own, and we should never have lost in Paris two years ago either, but we have the squad to win- and that’s all that should matter in the end.

It’s a good while since I played wing- and I know just a bit has changed tactically since then, but I think your analysis of wing selection is more or less what’s in it still. With the right handed bias of most players, more ball supposedly tends to go left, so you may want your “X Factors” players (sorry!) on that wing.

But as the kicking game is much more considered now, smaller players, often those left wingers, will be targeted. So there’s no real reliance that the right winger will be the one with the bombs landing.

Mind you as at our level, and in those days, any winger usually got about three clean passes a season, what do I really know...

[CiaranIrl]

Don’t get the rationale for worry. We should win: based on the Autumn, we are playing well- they are playing poorly. The ECC matches demonstrated that (by and large) the form line from the AI remains. It’s not like Brunel has shown he can work wonders in terms of inspiration of a previously disorganised team.

Of course the 6N has bit of a logic all its own, and we should never have lost in Paris two years ago either, but we have the squad to win- and that’s all that should matter in the end.

It’s a good while since I played wing- and I know just a bit has changed tactically since then, but I think your analysis of wing selection is more or less what’s in it still. With the right handed bias of most players, more ball supposedly tends to go left, so you may want your “X Factors” players (sorry!) on that wing.

But as the kicking game is much more considered now, smaller players, often those left wingers, will be targeted. So there’s no real reliance that the right winger will be the one with the bombs landing.

Mind you as at our level, and in those days, any winger usually got about three clean passes a season, what do I really know...

There was no logic whatsoever to us losing the opening game last year though! Playing France away in the 6N is always going to be a difficult prospect.

[dropkick]

Don’t get the rationale for worry. We should win: based on the Autumn, we are playing well- they are playing poorly. The ECC matches demonstrated that (by and large) the form line from the AI remains. It’s not like Brunel has shown he can work wonders in terms of inspiration of a previously disorganised team.

Of course the 6N has bit of a logic all its own, and we should never have lost in Paris two years ago either, but we have the squad to win- and that’s all that should matter in the end.

It’s a good while since I played wing- and I know just a bit has changed tactically since then, but I think your analysis of wing selection is more or less what’s in it still. With the right handed bias of most players, more ball supposedly tends to go left, so you may want your “X Factors” players (sorry!) on that wing.

But as the kicking game is much more considered now, smaller players, often those left wingers, will be targeted. So there’s no real reliance that the right winger will be the one with the bombs landing.

Mind you as at our level, and in those days, any winger usually got about three clean passes a season, what do I really know...

There was no logic whatsoever to us losing the opening game last year though! Playing France away in the 6N is always going to be a difficult prospect.

The players' mindset will be different. If the players expect to win they're not going to go into the match at 100%. That happened against Scotland. They'll give France a lot more respect and if they do its hard to see how this new, inexperienced French team is going to win.


Another reason why I don't think Ireland will be too complacent is competition for places. You can see its driving up standards and consistency.

[suisse]

Unusually the Stade de France is nowhere near a sellout for Saturday's game. A sign of disinterest from the French in their national side?

I was there 2 years ago and there were a lot of free seats in the upper tiers.

[suisse]

I'd be amazed if Jordi Murphy isn't on the bench, at least. I think Dan Leavy will miss out altogether but I can't work out who'll Joe Schmidt will pick at 7, either Muprhy or JVDF.

Keith Earls will start. Will Schmidt move him to the RW or keep him left? I think Stockdale is going to miss out.

Healy Best Furlong
Toner Henderson
POM JVDF/Murphy Stander
Murray Sexton
Earls Aki Henshaw Conway
Kearney

Cronin McGrath Porter Ryan JVDF/Murphy Marmion Carbery McFadden

[kermischocolate]

Unusually the Stade de France is nowhere near a sellout for Saturday's game. A sign of disinterest from the French in their national side?

I was there 2 years ago and there were a lot of free seats in the upper tiers.

That doesn't surprise me as the upper tiers are miles away from the pitch.
The lower ones though...

[jimbobjoe]

Midi Olympique predicting Jalibert will start at 10 on saturday. Very young (19) but dangerous with ball in hand.

[johng]

What do you get when you cross a Teddy Bear with a Jally Baby?

[simonokeeffe]

I think Jalibert was a Motorhead song

Joe has never seemed to have been a huge fan of Conway's, on current form I wouldnt mind and he may well be 23, Stockdale has the higher ceiling

The bourgeois sh1ts are a bit flakey, becoming perennial losers and the defrancification of the team quite possibly put them off

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Saving themselves for the World Cup?

[simonokeeffe]

Saving themselves for the World Cup?

Bribery is an exhausting process