The Quickening 2018

[blockhead]

So, if we get 5pts V Treviso and scarlets only manage 4 V Edinburgh then we go into the last game 5pts clear.
Then if get fup all V Connact and Scarlets get 5pts on JUDGEMENT DAY, we both finish on same points and same number of games won.
Then its down to points diff, we are currently 90pts ahead of the Scarlets.
Conf could be won this saturday.
Or not.
I knew I had a point to make when I started this post.....

[Peg Leg]

So, if we get 5pts V Treviso and scarlets only manage 4 V Edinburgh then we go into the last game 5pts clear.
Then if get fup all V Connact and Scarlets get 5pts on JUDGEMENT DAY, we both finish on same points and same number of games won.
Then its down to points diff, we are currently 90pts ahead of the Scarlets.
Conf could be won this saturday.
Or not.
I knew I had a point to make when I started this post.....

Can see Edinburgh doing a number on them

[wixfjord]

I think Embra might just sneak it too, if Scarlets are resting quite a few.

It's good for us also that our game is after theirs. Will know exactly what's needed.

[blockhead]

JohnG
Isn't it time you got going on the 2019 version of this?

Ulster v Treviso is a massive game this weekend, 4 teams (Edinburgh, Ulster, Scarlets and Treviso) fighting for 2 spots in the playoffs and for a place in next years Heino.
In the other conf, Glasgow and Mordor are neck and neck for top spot but keep an eye out for the Cheetahs. They have Zebre at home this weekend and still have a game in hand at home v kings. 10 points would put them in the mix for top 3.

[D4surfer]

These are the remaining games involving the contenders in our conference:

Leinster v Scarlets
Ulster v Benetton
Southern Kings v Edinburgh

Edinburgh v Dragons
Ospreys v Ulster
Zebre v Leinster
Benetton v Scarlets

Leinster v Southern Kings
Benetton v Dragons
Edinburgh v Cardiff Blues
Ulster v Zebre
Scarlets v Cheetahs

Leinster v Cheetahs
Benetton v Edinburgh
Scarlets v Munster
Dragons v Ulster

Cardiff Blues v Scarlets
Connacht v Benetton
Edinburgh v Leinster
Ulster v Southern Kings

Glasgow Warriors v Ulster
Scarlets Edinburgh
Leinster v Benetton

Benetton v Munster
Edinburgh v Ulster
Leinster v Glasgow Warriors
Scarlets v Zebre

Dragons v Scarlets
Zebre v Benetton
Ulster v Leinster
Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh

[curates_egg]

JohnG
Isn't it time you got going on the 2019 version of this?

Ulster v Treviso is a massive game this weekend, 4 teams (Edinburgh, Ulster, Scarlets and Treviso) fighting for 2 spots in the playoffs and for a place in next years Heino.
In the other conf, Glasgow and Mordor are neck and neck for top spot but keep an eye out for the Cheetahs. They have Zebre at home this weekend and still have a game in hand at home v kings. 10 points would put them in the mix for top 3.

I always look forward to JohnG's quickening thread...but there doesn't seem to be a point this year.

[blockhead]

JohnG
Isn't it time you got going on the 2019 version of this?

Ulster v Treviso is a massive game this weekend, 4 teams (Edinburgh, Ulster, Scarlets and Treviso) fighting for 2 spots in the playoffs and for a place in next years Heino.
In the other conf, Glasgow and Mordor are neck and neck for top spot but keep an eye out for the Cheetahs. They have Zebre at home this weekend and still have a game in hand at home v kings. 10 points would put them in the mix for top 3.

I always look forward to JohnG's quickening thread...but there doesn't seem to be a point this year.

Maybe, from a Leinster perspective, but everyone else is in a real dogfight!

Q. Can I still use that noun, "dogfight"?

[johng]

JohnG
Isn't it time you got going on the 2019 version of this?

Ulster v Treviso is a massive game this weekend, 4 teams (Edinburgh, Ulster, Scarlets and Treviso) fighting for 2 spots in the playoffs and for a place in next years Heino.
In the other conf, Glasgow and Mordor are neck and neck for top spot but keep an eye out for the Cheetahs. They have Zebre at home this weekend and still have a game in hand at home v kings. 10 points would put them in the mix for top 3.

I always look forward to JohnG's quickening thread...but there doesn't seem to be a point this year.

Thought the same myself. But I have worked out a way of doing it. Stand by. I will have an hour in the airport soon

[paddyor]

My prediciton
Round 14 & 15

Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Lei 54    Sca H    4   58   93   Zeb A    5   63   93
Edi 35    Kin H    5   40   75   Dra A    5   45   75
Tre 35    Uls H    0   35   70   Sca H    1   36   66
Sca 34    Lei H    0   34   70   Tre A    4   40   70
Uls 33    Tre H    5   38   73   Osp A    4   42   72

Round 16 & 17

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Lei 63    Kin H    5   68   93   Che H    5   73   93
Edi 45    Car H    4   49   74   Tre A    4   53   73
Uls 42    Zeb H    5   47   72   Dra A    5   52   72
Sca 40    Che H    5   45   70   Mun H    4   49   69
Tre 36    Dra H    5   41   66   Edi H    1   42   62

Round 18 & 19

Team Pts     G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M          
Lei 73    Edi A    1   74   89   Tre H    5   79   89
Edi 53    Lei H    4   57   72   Sca A    1   58   68      
Uls 52    Kin H    5   54   69   Gla A    1   55   65   
Sca 49    Car A    4   53   68   Edi H    4   57   67    
Tre 42    Con A    0   42   57   Lei A    1   43   53    

Round 20 & 21

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T
Lei 79    Gla H    4   83   88   Uls A    1   84
Sca 57    Zeb H    5   59   64   Dra A    4   66
Edi 58    Uls H    4   62   67   Gla A    4   66
Uls 55    Edi A    1   56   61   Lei H    4   60
Tre 53    Mun H    1   44   49   Zeb A    4   48

21 points from a possible 40 will win the league. Also if we come out of the next 4 games with a 20 pont lead over Edinburgh it's done. It'll go to games won then points diff which is currently +247 and you'd expect that to grow with the Kings and cheetahs at home coming up.

Scarlets have probably the easiest run in with the game vs Edinburgh being the only really difficult game I see. That's shaping up to be the home qf decider. I think Scarlets will shade them on points difference because they'll have the same no. of wins Cardiff caused them problems but they should have a full compliment back and theirs a few back from injury as well IIRC.

Edinburgh have an easy 6N but a difficult run in but that will suit them as they're squad is weaker when it can be and stronger when it really needs it. I think Cockerill will throw his strongest team on the field for the Leinster game in advance of the HCC QF vs Munster. We could be going there looking to win the league. If the past 6 weeks are anything to go by he'll flog his front liners right to the end of the season.

If Ulster want to get into the reckoning they have win a minimum 7 of their remaining 8 games with a haul of BPs. They should be set up nicely coming into the last 3 games with only the Os away being a really difficult game. They've traditionally struggled to put away Treviso but usually get the result. They'll be praying Coatzees hamstring problem is minor.

Kind of written off Treviso which might seem unfair but I don't see them winning 6 of their last 8 games. They're destiny is still in their own hands as they get a shot at each of the conference rivals but the odd upset aside I can't see them getting the better of all 4.

[johng]

Ok. Maybe I won't then. Lucky I left an hour early

[blockhead]

My prediciton

Next 4 games
Lei 54     Sca H    4   58   93   Zeb A    5   63   93   Kin H    5   68   93   Che H    5   73   93
Edi 35     Kin H    5   40   75   Dra A    5   45   75   Car H    4   49   74   Tre A    4   53   73
Tre 35     Uls H    0   35   70   Sca H    1   36   66   Dra H    5   41   66   Edi H    1   42   62
Sca 34     Lei H    0   34   70   Tre A    4   40   70   Che H    5   45   70   Mun H    4   49   69
Uls 33     Tre H    5   38   73   Osc A    4   42   72   Zeb H    5   47   72   Dra A    5   52   72

Last 4 Games

Lei     Edi H    1   74   89   Tre A    5   79   89   Gla H    4   83   88   Uls A    1   84   
Edi     Lei H    4   57   72   Sca A    1   58   68   Uls H    4   62   67   Gla H    4   66   
Tre     Con A    0   42   57   Lei A    1   43   53   Mun H    1   44   49   Zeb H    4   48   
Sca     Car A    1   50   65   Edi H    4   54   64   Zeb H    5   59   64   Dra A    4   63   
Uls     Kin H    5   54   69   Gla A    1   55   65   Edi A    1   56   61   Lei H    4   60   

What the fup is that?

[D4surfer]

Lei     Edi H
Edi     Lei H

The pedant in me has to point out the error. Leinster are away to Edinburgh. Otherwise well done on a comprehensive table. I'm doing a super sudoku at the minute which is less complicated.

[paddyor]

Conferece A
Round 14 & 15

Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Mun 44    Dra A    5   49   84   Kin H    5   54   84
Gla 42    Osp H    5   47   82   Car A    4   51   81
Osp 37    Gla A    0   37   72   Uls H    1   38   68
Con 37    Car A    4   41   76   Che H    5   46   76
Car 32    Con H    1   33   67   Gla H    1   34   63

Round 16 & 17

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Mun 54    Osp A    4   58   83   Sca A    1   59   79
Gla 51    Con H    4   55   80   Zeb A    5   60   80
Con 46    Gla A    1   47   72   Osp H    5   52   72
Osp 38    Mun H    1   39   64   Con A    0   39   59
Car 34    Edi A    1   35   60   Kin H    5   40   60

Round 18 & 19

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Gla 60    Che H    5   65   80   Uls H    4   69   79
Mun 59    Zeb H    5   64   79   Car H    5   69   79
Con 52    Tre H    5   57   72   Zeb A    5   62   72
Car 40    Sca H    1   41   56   Mun A    0   41   51
Osp 39    Dra H    5   44   59   Che A    5   49   59

Round 20 & 21

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T
Mun 69    Tre A    5   74   79   Con H    4   78
Gla 69    Lei A    0   69   74   Edi H    1   70
Con 62    Car H    4   66   71   Mun A    1   67   
Osp 49    Kin A    5   54   59   Car A    4   58   
Car 41    Con A    1   42   56   Osp H    1   43   

Team W  D L TB LB PTS
Mun  16 0 5 12 2  78
Gla  14 0 7 11 3  70
Con  13 0 8 8 7  67
Osp  12 0 9 6 4  58
Car  7 0 14 5 10  43

Munster will lose some players to during the 6N but should keep most of their pack and have able back ups at 9 and 10 provided no one gets injured. Their squad is much stronger than any of the conference rivals and they've an easier run than Glasgow who are probably their only real rivals for the home SF.

Glasgow have been a bit of mixed bag. Threw away points vs Treviso chasing a BP and also against Munster. Will lose way more of their squad to Scotland and the main concern for the 6N is the halves. Possibly giving them more credit than they're due as they were terrible this time last year. The conf games during the 6N vs Ospreys, Cardiff and Connacht will determine their season. They could well be coming to the RDS looking for a result or needing one in the 1872 game.

5 from 6 LBPs show just how competitive Connacht have been even in defeat. 3rd choice OH was usually allowed go back to their province during the 6Ns so they should have Carty at least. Should also get back a lot of the players in the Ireland squad and the way the fictures line up there's scope to rotate. There's a definite 13-15 pts for them from the Italians and Cheetahs but what's really important is they beat the 2 Welsh rivals. Massive game on Saturday, win that and they've a 9-10 point lead over Cardiff.

Ospreys have probably the most difficult 6N of any of the sides. Shorn of it's Wales players it's just a good team. The good news is it eases up after the 6N and they should bank 3 if not 4 wins. Anything less than 2 wins during the 6 nations will see them out of the running. The game against Connacht looks make or break.

The season could have been so different for Cardiff had they not had such a terrible start. 4 points from what should have 13 see's them 5th and 5pts back instead of 3rd with a gap back to the other 2. They've had 2 thumping wins vs Munster and Scarlets but that's it really. The rest of their points have come from easier opponents as their schedule for the run in indicates. I've maybe been a bit harsh in writing them off. They won't lose as many players to Wales but I think the ones they are losing or have lost to injury are really key for them. If they want to break 60pts they need to win 6 games and get a few BPs along the way and I just can't see it with that Schedule.

[Oldschool]

Great breakdown Johng.
Only took you an hour?, put that in your CV, superman is always in demand.
This weekend's fixtures give all the provinces an opportunity to generate momentum either for themselves or each other.
Leinster can do Ulster a big favour by beating Scarlets and Ulster can do themselves a big favour by beating Benetton.
Connacht can do themselves a big favour by beating Cardiff (helping Ulster out) especially if Glasgow take out Ospreys.
Munster just need to keep plugging away.
Build momentum.

[johng]

Check your glasses OS that was all Paddy OR..... I'm a Chinaman.

I think he has covered it very well and comprehensively and I'll stick his contributions into the 2019 thread when I get a chance to do one.

[Oldschool]

Check your glasses OS that was all Paddy OR..... I'm a Chinaman.

I think he has covered it very well and comprehensively and I'll stick his contributions into the 2019 thread when I get a chance to do one.

I take it all back!