JS v RB

[Jonny tight lips]

There seems to be a lot of dismissing of Ross Byrne going on at the moment so can I take a minute to remind everyone that he is almost exactly 10 years younger than J-Sex (9 years and 9 months) and made his debut almost exactly 10 years after him (9 years and 7 months). Both were 20 when they made their debut and in their first 4 seasons were competing with an exceptionally talented incumbent.

In his first 4 years (as understudy to Dr Phil) Sexton played in 32 league and 8 European games (2115 minutes) while Felipe played in 62 and 26 (6662 minutes)

In Byrne’s first 4 years (as understudy to Sexton) he played in 54 league and 17 European games (3894 minutes) while Sexton played in 26 and 24 (3121 minutes)

Below is a slightly more detailed look at both players’ first 4 seasons:

That’s an interesting table and it shows very clearly that we are in a much better position to judge RB than we were to judge JS after 4 years. I remember there still being a lot of uncertainty about JS when he came in in the semi in 09 not because we had seen a lot of him and thought he wouldn’t make it but because we hadn’t seen enough of him.

As people have said he dosent seem to be as big a threat with ball in hand and with the players around him and the game plan being favored by Stuart and Leo that could be a problem going forward for the province. He didn’t have a great year last year in green or blue and there was a significant drop off in performance by the team as a whole when he played both with the reserves and the seniors. We scrapped past a poor ulster team at home in Europe and had a bad few results with him at 10 towards the end of the year.

Maybe he will have a huge year this year and kick on. He will always be compared Joey who played well in Europe last year and was good better in green too.

[wise7]

You're kidding when you say we scraped past a 'poor Ulster' in Europe? On the day they were anything but poor and put in a huge performance. RB did really well with a haul l of 16 points including a try at a critcial stage in the first half and great peno at the death. What about his performance in the RDS against Toulouse in January? Probably his best performance to date in Blue. On his appearances in Green, an impressive debut cameo in Chicago admittedly against a second rate Italy but a very commanding stint against a US side that came to play in the Aviva and a good first 25 against England in August before the platform upfront went on fire and melted. Just to keep it all in perspective.

[Xanthippe]

I've yet to see anything from Joey Carbery that makes me think that he is our long term 10 in green. Injury and mistake prone, he just never controls a game. He has fabulous individual skills but that's not what it takes to play international 10.

And I think that may have been Leo and Lancaster's thought too - his skill set and 'selfishness' are way more suited to 15 than 10

For me:

• Johnny thinks about team first - often takes what may be an unnecessary hit to put a team mate away
  
  Joey thinks about Joey first (and second and third) - will often give a hospital pass to a team mate instead of taking contact or conversely will take contact in the wrong situation when a team mate is in a good/scoring position
  
  Ross is probably a lot more like Johnny than Joey will ever be - doesn't have the skills and nuances to his game yet but then neither did Johnny 10 years ago. I think Ross is way more team focused and has a Johnny like ability to put people into space - especially with his cross field kicking ability

[ronk]

We've seen a carbon copy of the Ross-Joey debate: O'Gara-Staunton.

One was an exciting player with natural ball playing talent, physical gifts and positional versatility. The other didnt have or care so much about the highlights reel but won games and didnt have the same blooper reel.

One moved for other opportunities and was moderately successful. The other stayed and pushed on.

We've seen this with Madigan too. All the talent, all the work ethic, no fundamental weaknesses, some huge performances from a young age. A career that stalled just as it was due to really take off.

[Ruckedtobits]

We've seen a carbon copy of the Ross-Joey debate: O'Gara-Staunton.

One was an exciting player with natural ball playing talent, physical gifts and positional versatility. The other didnt have or care so much about the highlights reel but won games and didnt have the same blooper reel.

One moved for other opportunities and was moderately successful. The other stayed and pushed on.

We've seen this with Madigan too. All the talent, all the work ethic, no fundamental weaknesses, some huge performances from a young age. A career that stalled just as it was due to really take off.

That's a really good comparison or parallel. Staunton was a fabulous talent at his best and was certainly a player I always felt was deserving of more National selections. However, speaking years later to some of his former team-mates who had also played with RO'G, they stressed that you were always certain what you'd get with O'Gara and he combined his on-field ability with a really driven passion to win. Staunton did not always show these attributes.

[ronk]

It's the winning edge. Even good coaches often don't see it. It was a big thing in Moneyball. They found a way in baseball to identify such players using a different statistical approach when conventional analysis missed them.

[Oldschool]

Notwithstanding the various comments about style, attitude, mentality etc Carberry's biggest problem is injury related.
He simply hasn't been able to develop into the player we all thought he might become.
Looking at the Ford/Farrell axis for England you'd wonder is this the way forward "again".
The alternative axis seems to be 10/15.
Which axis is likely to win out over time.

[wise7]

would be interesting to see if a RB/HB combination could become a contender formula for such a potential axis in Blue in the future?

[ronk]

Notwithstanding the various comments about style, attitude, mentality etc Carberry's biggest problem is injury related.
He simply hasn't been able to develop into the player we all thought he might become.
Looking at the Ford/Farrell axis for England you'd wonder is this the way forward "again".
The alternative axis seems to be 10/15.
Which axis is likely to win out over time.

The individual is relevant here. The Lions were at this best with Farrell at 12. It's more than just getting talent on the field. Farrell is world class at both positions, but he's a much better 12.

[Xanthippe]

would be interesting to see if a RB/HB combination could become a contender formula for such a potential axis in Blue in the future?

Exactly - and I think there are two possibilities for that combo too I reckon HB could excel at 12 or at 15

[Twist]

From the sounds of this article back in May, they both want to be 10s

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ ... 78427.html

[Flash Gordon]

Rugby supporters can be a funny bunch - over on Munsterfans a young player has one good game and is immediately touted as the saviour of Irish rugby whereas on here we seem to look for reasons to drag lads down and dismiss their achievements.

Not a fair comparison. The difference for Munster is it’s been close to a decade since they’ve produced a player of any genuine quality. They have a couple now in the form of Casey and Wycherly but it’s not surprising they would get hyped by anybody when there’s been nobody of note since 2009.

Think there's a difference in standards. We believe that the standard is winning the Champions Cup, I don't mean that to sound arrogant and in no way, shape or form is that anything like a given but it is the objective.

To do that you have to be better in as many positions as possible than the leading competitors for the Cup. So if we want to dethrone the current holders we need better players and better coaching than Saracens. Is Ross Byrne better than Farrell? At this stage it's not even close.

Also, to compete we have to improve as a team. Does Ross Byrne improve Leinster vs Leinster with Johnny Sexton? No he doesn't.

Ross Byrne has proven himself as a decent Pro14 outhalf and he may develop into a decent Champions Cup outhalf but he isn't that yet and isn't close to the Ireland team. There are areas of his game that have improved significantly - like his kicking - but there is a lot to work on. He is still young of course but in terms of potential Frawley and/or his brother may have more in the bag.

[wise7]

'Flash', as much as I have been a fan of Ross you have been equally consistent but as a constant detractor over the past 3 seasons during which the boy has served us really well in his 75 appearances over Pro 14 and H Cup. To say he is not even close to H Cup required standard is to ignore the reality of his performances. He has never been on a losing H Cup side in his 17 appearances. Maybe he is just not ''Flash'' enough to get your vote.

[Ruckedtobits]

Rugby supporters can be a funny bunch - over on Munsterfans a young player has one good game and is immediately touted as the saviour of Irish rugby whereas on here we seem to look for reasons to drag lads down and dismiss their achievements.

Not a fair comparison. The difference for Munster is it’s been close to a decade since they’ve produced a player of any genuine quality. They have a couple now in the form of Casey and Wycherly but it’s not surprising they would get hyped by anybody when there’s been nobody of note since 2009.

Think there's a difference in standards. We believe that the standard is winning the Champions Cup, I don't mean that to sound arrogant and in no way, shape or form is that anything like a given but it is the objective.

To do that you have to be better in as many positions as possible than the leading competitors for the Cup. So if we want to dethrone the current holders we need better players and better coaching than Saracens. Is Ross Byrne better than Farrell? At this stage it's not even close.

Also, to compete we have to improve as a team. Does Ross Byrne improve Leinster vs Leinster with Johnny Sexton? No he doesn't.

Ross Byrne has proven himself as a decent Pro14 outhalf and he may develop into a decent Champions Cup outhalf but he isn't that yet and isn't close to the Ireland team. There are areas of his game that have improved significantly - like his kicking - but there is a lot to work on. He is still young of course but in terms of potential Frawley and/or his brother may have more in the bag.

+1
Good objective analysis about the requirements to win at the top European level. I'm watching La Rochelle carefully to see if RO'G tries to introduce SH winning style or rather focusses on what has been successful for others in French Top 14 - a far more attritional competition played across the different climatic conditions of Europeam Autumn, Winter & Spring / Summer.

[Oldschool]

Rugby supporters can be a funny bunch - over on Munsterfans a young player has one good game and is immediately touted as the saviour of Irish rugby whereas on here we seem to look for reasons to drag lads down and dismiss their achievements.

Not a fair comparison. The difference for Munster is it’s been close to a decade since they’ve produced a player of any genuine quality. They have a couple now in the form of Casey and Wycherly but it’s not surprising they would get hyped by anybody when there’s been nobody of note since 2009.

Think there's a difference in standards. We believe that the standard is winning the Champions Cup, I don't mean that to sound arrogant and in no way, shape or form is that anything like a given but it is the objective.

To do that you have to be better in as many positions as possible than the leading competitors for the Cup. So if we want to dethrone the current holders we need better players and better coaching than Saracens. Is Ross Byrne better than Farrell? At this stage it's not even close.

Also, to compete we have to improve as a team. Does Ross Byrne improve Leinster vs Leinster with Johnny Sexton? No he doesn't.

Ross Byrne has proven himself as a decent Pro14 outhalf and he may develop into a decent Champions Cup outhalf but he isn't that yet and isn't close to the Ireland team. There are areas of his game that have improved significantly - like his kicking - but there is a lot to work on. He is still young of course but in terms of potential Frawley and/or his brother may have more in the bag.

A lot of what you say makes sense.
However, based (not exclusively) on the last time we played Saracens, I wouldn't want Sexton starting.
That leaves us with RB as of now with the possibility that HB or Frawley could come through.
If we were playing Saracens tomorrow RB would be our best option, unpalatable as that might be.
Anyone who thinks JS would be a better option is living in hope rather than based on current form and/or fitness.
JS' performances have fluctuated wildly.
Against average opposition he looks quite comfortable but against top class opposition his game seems to fall apart.
RB may not have the same ceiling but neither does he have the same nadir.
RB is still improving, JS is unfortunately going in the wrong direction.

[Flash Gordon]

'Flash', as much as I have been a fan of Ross you have been equally consistent but as a constant detractor over the past 3 seasons during which the boy has served us really well in his 75 appearances over Pro 14 and H Cup. To say he is not even close to H Cup required standard is to ignore the reality of his performances. He has never been on a losing H Cup side in his 17 appearances. Maybe he is just not ''Flash'' enough to get your vote.

I've been what now? I didn't say he wasn't even close to Heineken Cup standard, I said he wasn't close to Ireland standard or to the level Farrell is at - do you disagree with that? As I said, our performance benchmarks are the best players in the best positions across Europe. Whether we like it or not that was Joe's view too. As I said, he has improved areas of his game significantly and he's a good Pro 14 player. He is not challenging Johnny for the outhalf slot at the moment for either Ireland or Leinster, that's a fact and he hasn't looked like displacing him.

My principle issue with him is that he releases the ball too early and doesn't attack the line enough. As a consequence, defences drift to cover when he releases. When he attacked the line against Toulouse he was outstanding. He's still a young lad and I think Johnny will use the next 2 years to help bring through his successor so hopefully he will develop further - same goes for his brother and Frawley so hopefully we'll have a 3 way fight between 3 good players.

As an aside some of the comments on Sexton are a bit odd, I'd imagine he's far from finished, he is afterall the current World Rugby player of the year!!

[Oldschool]

'Flash', as much as I have been a fan of Ross you have been equally consistent but as a constant detractor over the past 3 seasons during which the boy has served us really well in his 75 appearances over Pro 14 and H Cup. To say he is not even close to H Cup required standard is to ignore the reality of his performances. He has never been on a losing H Cup side in his 17 appearances. Maybe he is just not ''Flash'' enough to get your vote.

I've been what now? I didn't say he wasn't even close to Heineken Cup standard, I said he wasn't close to Ireland standard or to the level Farrell is at - do you disagree with that? As I said, our performance benchmarks are the best players in the best positions across Europe. Whether we like it or not that was Joe's view too. As I said, he has improved areas of his game significantly and he's a good Pro 14 player. He is not challenging Johnny for the outhalf slot at the moment for either Ireland or Leinster, that's a fact and he hasn't looked like displacing him.

My principle issue with him is that he releases the ball too early and doesn't attack the line enough. As a consequence, defences drift to cover when he releases. When he attacked the line against Toulouse he was outstanding. He's still a young lad and I think Johnny will use the next 2 years to help bring through his successor so hopefully he will develop further - same goes for his brother and Frawley so hopefully we'll have a 3 way fight between 3 good players.

As an aside some of the comments on Sexton are a bit odd, I'd imagine he's far from finished, he is afterall the current World Rugby player of the year!!

He is the 2018 World Rugby player of the year.
He won't even be nominated for the 2019 World Rugby player of the year.
There is nothing odd about an aging player losing form and fitness etc, on the contrary it's actually quite normal.
Sexton is on the wane and is likely to be even more ineffective in 2020 than in 2019.
Ireland were GS winners in 2018 etc etc but we've been nowhere in 2019.
Just maybe there's a link.

[ronk]

Rugby supporters can be a funny bunch - over on Munsterfans a young player has one good game and is immediately touted as the saviour of Irish rugby whereas on here we seem to look for reasons to drag lads down and dismiss their achievements.

Not a fair comparison. The difference for Munster is it’s been close to a decade since they’ve produced a player of any genuine quality. They have a couple now in the form of Casey and Wycherly but it’s not surprising they would get hyped by anybody when there’s been nobody of note since 2009.

Think there's a difference in standards. We believe that the standard is winning the Champions Cup, I don't mean that to sound arrogant and in no way, shape or form is that anything like a given but it is the objective.

To do that you have to be better in as many positions as possible than the leading competitors for the Cup. So if we want to dethrone the current holders we need better players and better coaching than Saracens. Is Ross Byrne better than Farrell? At this stage it's not even close.

Also, to compete we have to improve as a team. Does Ross Byrne improve Leinster vs Leinster with Johnny Sexton? No he doesn't.

Ross Byrne has proven himself as a decent Pro14 outhalf and he may develop into a decent Champions Cup outhalf but he isn't that yet and isn't close to the Ireland team. There are areas of his game that have improved significantly - like his kicking - but there is a lot to work on. He is still young of course but in terms of potential Frawley and/or his brother may have more in the bag.

That sort of impatience is why Munster haven't passed a semi in a long time. They didnt want to build on the talent they had and they took shortcuts.

It's the same thing with Ireland and the quarter final.

[Flash Gordon]

Think there's a difference in standards. We believe that the standard is winning the Champions Cup, I don't mean that to sound arrogant and in no way, shape or form is that anything like a given but it is the objective.

To do that you have to be better in as many positions as possible than the leading competitors for the Cup. So if we want to dethrone the current holders we need better players and better coaching than Saracens. Is Ross Byrne better than Farrell? At this stage it's not even close.

Also, to compete we have to improve as a team. Does Ross Byrne improve Leinster vs Leinster with Johnny Sexton? No he doesn't.

Ross Byrne has proven himself as a decent Pro14 outhalf and he may develop into a decent Champions Cup outhalf but he isn't that yet and isn't close to the Ireland team. There are areas of his game that have improved significantly - like his kicking - but there is a lot to work on. He is still young of course but in terms of potential Frawley and/or his brother may have more in the bag.

That sort of impatience is why Munster haven't passed a semi in a long time. They didnt want to build on the talent they had and they took shortcuts.

It's the same thing with Ireland and the quarter final.

Don't get the impatience point, nobody is suggesting getting rid of the lad rather that he's not there yet. The point is that our standard is and should be winning the Champions Cup and having the players and coaching that entails. Any player that isn't there yet is on a journey to get there, that's what elite sport is all about isn't it?

[desperado]

Sorry Oldschool but this is just a mad assertion.

A lot of what you say makes sense.
However, based (not exclusively) on the last time we played Saracens, I wouldn't want Sexton starting.
That leaves us with RB as of now with the possibility that HB or Frawley could come through.
If we were playing Saracens tomorrow RB would be our best option, unpalatable as that might be.