Pro 14 final vs Ulster, Sept 12th. Live on TG4 & EirSport

[wixfjord]

Cian T in the Indo reporting similar team news from what we saw earlier in the week - https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ ... qtCXMQOW38

Interesting few bits no Connors, looks like he has jumped ahead of JVDF for the Sarries game but Josh set to start on Sat.

[mildlyinterested]

that account has now been deleted.. i'm guessing the source of the team news leaking has been found.

[curates_egg]

Almost as interesting as the respective teams, will be the benches.
As someone mentioned, Ulster appear to be trying to finish strongly, both in terms of conditioning and selection/bench.
Matthewson should start on standard form metrics, but I wonder will he?
I wonder if they might switch one/both of the props for a real impact finish? I'd say Jack would love a crack at Porter too.

[Up Wexford]

Ulster gave us our toughest game bar the final last year and apart from a Stockdale f%~k up would have won. Not that it will count Saturday but the atmosphere in the stadium was fantastic and none of the Ulster players will be afraid of Leinster (as said before most of them have played for us). Ulsters tight five and set piece are a weakness but McFarland seems to have them where he wants them mentally.

Interesting point above re Mathewson. The switch from Cooney to Mathewson worked last week. When he was with Munster, much of their positive play was when Mathewson came on for Murray. The winning is within us certainly, but it'll be no cakewalk

[wixfjord]

Ulster lineout is a big weakness imo. They don't tend to compete and none of Treadwell, Carter or AOC are great jumpers and they don't have a good back row jumper really either.

We could make a bit of hay there. Same with scrum, we had them going backwards in the last game.

Mathewson starting his first game in a final would be a big call, but he's clearly in better form!

[leinsterforever]

Madigan's getting a lot of good press. It's understandable because the kicks were fantastic, but I thought he actually looked quite shaky in general play. He was too deep and his passing looked laboured.

[ronk]

Ulster lineout is a big weakness imo. They don't tend to compete and none of Treadwell, Carter or AOC are great jumpers and they don't have a good back row jumper really either.

We could make a bit of hay there. Same with scrum, we had them going backwards in the last game.

Mathewson starting his first game in a final would be a big call, but he's clearly in better form!

They have a QF too.

[Theleinsterlad]

This is where they really suffer from not having Henderson in their front five

[Ruckedtobits]

Going into a final without an 85%+ kicker would not bee sensible and McFarland is always sensible. Cooney will start for that reason alone. Previously, he's had no hang-ups playing Leinster and although he was shown no form since the restart, he's only 40 minutes away from being a game changer.

The rumoured Leinster selection is not far away from expected. IMO, Leo & his coaches will select for this game based purely on suitability to play Ulster, rather than protecting a cohort to face Sarries. I expect to see J10 on the bench with Fardy and possibly RK. I expect, and hope, the game will be fast and abrasive. I hope we pressure Herring's throwing and the Ulster maul.

If Ross B gets a decent supply of front foot ball, I believe thee Ulster back three will have a difficult afternoon. Billy Burns will also get to know Robbie Henshaw, Jack Conan and James Lowe, very well before Saturday evening is over.

[Ruckedtobits]

Going into a final without an 85%+ kicker would not be sensible and McFarland is always sensible. Cooney will start for that reason alone. Previously, he's had no hang-ups playing Leinster and although he was shown no form since the restart, he's only 40 minutes away from being a game changer.

The rumoured Leinster selection is not far away from expected. IMO, Leo & his coaches will select for this game based purely on suitability to play Ulster, rather than protecting a cohort to face Sarries. I expect to see J10 on the bench with Fardy and possibly RK. I expect, and hope, the game will be fast and abrasive. I hope we pressure Herring's throwing and the Ulster maul.

If Ross B gets a decent supply of front foot ball, I believe the Ulster back three will have a difficult evening. Billy Burns will also get to know Robbie Henshaw, Jack Conan and James Lowe, very well, before Saturday evening is over.

[LeinsterLeader]

Some thoughts from Luke Fitzgerald:

"Any time you are up against a provincial rival, it would really sting not to win and they have come so far and had such a good season. I think they are a little bit concerned about this record of no losses this year. That is weighing on them a little bit. I may have got that from an inside source - I was walking down Dun Laoghaire pier and bumped into one of the management team. I'm sure they have talked about it but they must be a bit worried about it. It is a bit of a weight on the shoulders that you don't need. You would love to achieve it because it would be an incredible feat."

.........

"I think Leo Cullen will pick the best 15 or 23 to go and win the game," Fitzgerald said.

"It looked to me like Johnny had an ice pack on maybe his ankle so it could be the case that he has a small knock and they don't want to risk him. Any final, a team is going to want to pick their best guy and Johnny is their best guy. I think it might be something to do with that [a knock] and they just haven't mentioned it.

"Ross Byrne and Ciaran Frawley are outstanding footballers so I don't think it becomes any less of a task for Ulster if either of them plays."

[blockhead]

Some thoughts from Luke Fitzgerald:

"Any time you are up against a provincial rival, it would really sting not to win and they have come so far and had such a good season. I think they are a little bit concerned about this record of no losses this year. That is weighing on them a little bit. I may have got that from an inside source - I was walking down Dun Laoghaire pier and bumped into one of the management team. I'm sure they have talked about it but they must be a bit worried about it. It is a bit of a weight on the shoulders that you don't need. You would love to achieve it because it would be an incredible feat."

.........

"I think Leo Cullen will pick the best 15 or 23 to go and win the game," Fitzgerald said.

"It looked to me like Johnny had an ice pack on maybe his ankle so it could be the case that he has a small knock and they don't want to risk him. Any final, a team is going to want to pick their best guy and Johnny is their best guy. I think it might be something to do with that [a knock] and they just haven't mentioned it.

"Ross Byrne and Ciaran Frawley are outstanding footballers so I don't think it becomes any less of a task for Ulster if either of them plays."

Meanwhile on the RTE podcast....
Hugh Cahill says at the start that its midweek and that he wants to focus on next weekend rather than the semis, but...
Whats gone wrong with our beloved Munster?: 29 mins
Farrell ye gobshite, you're going to miss the game against the jackeens now FFS: 5 mins
Ulster: 6 mins
Leinster: 3 mins

[Twist]

Some thoughts from Luke Fitzgerald:

"Any time you are up against a provincial rival, it would really sting not to win and they have come so far and had such a good season. I think they are a little bit concerned about this record of no losses this year. That is weighing on them a little bit. I may have got that from an inside source - I was walking down Dun Laoghaire pier and bumped into one of the management team. I'm sure they have talked about it but they must be a bit worried about it. It is a bit of a weight on the shoulders that you don't need. You would love to achieve it because it would be an incredible feat."

.........

"I think Leo Cullen will pick the best 15 or 23 to go and win the game," Fitzgerald said.

"It looked to me like Johnny had an ice pack on maybe his ankle so it could be the case that he has a small knock and they don't want to risk him. Any final, a team is going to want to pick their best guy and Johnny is their best guy. I think it might be something to do with that [a knock] and they just haven't mentioned it.

"Ross Byrne and Ciaran Frawley are outstanding footballers so I don't think it becomes any less of a task for Ulster if either of them plays."

Meanwhile on the RTE podcast....
Hugh Cahill says at the start that its midweek and that he wants to focus on next weekend rather than the semis, but...
Whats gone wrong with our beloved Munster?: 29 mins
Farrell ye gobshite, you're going to miss the game against the jackeens now FFS: 5 mins
Ulster: 6 mins
Leinster: 3 mins

I was going to refer to the RTÉ podcast as “The Munster Show” but I realised that could easily mean OTB

[riocard911]

Murray Kinsella in the42.ie predicting the same Leinster starting 15 that was rumoured on Monday:

15. Jordan Larmour
14. Hugo Keenan
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Robbie Henshaw
11. James Lowe
10. Ross Byrne
9. Jamison Gibson-Park

1. Cian Healy
2. Ronan Kelleher
3. Andrew Porter
4. Devin Toner
5. James Ryan
6. Caelan Doris
7. Josh van der Flier
8. Jack Conan

[blockhead]

Impressive stats coming into the Final
From the IT

Rugby Stats: Numbers just keep adding up in Leinster’s unbeaten streak
Leo Cullen’s side have scored five or more tries in 12 of the 24 games of the run
John O'Sullivan
Leinster hooker Rónan Kelleher has scored nine tries in his side’s 24-game unbeaten run, this effort coming against the Ospreys last October.

Leinster will be trying to engineer a 25th successive victory when they face Ulster in the Pro14 final at the Aviva stadium on Saturday night. Their most recent defeat dates back to last season’s Champions Cup final when they were beaten 20-10 by Saracens at St James Park in Newcastle. Leo Cullen’s side will have a chance to atone for that defeat when the two clubs meet again in a European quarter-final on Saturday week in Dublin.

If the Irish province does manage to complete this abbreviated season unbeaten it would elongate the winning sequence to 28 matches. Leinster put aside the disappointment of losing to Saracens last May with a 24-9 Pro14 semi-final victory over Munster at the RDS, the starting line for what constitutes a remarkable run of success. They followed it up by beating the Glasgow Warriors 18-15 in the final at Celtic Park.

In their 24-match winning streak the Irish province have scored 107 tries at a strike-rate of 4.45 per game while conceding 40 at 1.66 per match. Looking at the attacking side of things first, Leinster have scored five or more tries on 12 (50 per cent) occasions, the most, nine, in a 55-19 thumping of Glasgow in the last Pro 14 match before the lockdown.

They have crossed for eight tries on four occasions, twice for seven, three times for six and in a brace of matches managed five. There is only one team that prevented them from crossing the tryline and that was Michael Bradley’s Zebre, who succumbed 3-0, the game’s sole score at the Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, a Ross Byrne penalty on 19 minutes.

It’s interesting to note that of the two teams to hold Cullen’s charges to a single try across three matches it was Munster that managed it twice, last weekend at the Aviva Stadium and at Thomond Park in the regular part of the season. The other occasion was the Champions Cup game at the Stade Mamut de Gerland in Lyon when Leinster squeezed home 13-6 in a Champions Cup pool match with Max Deegan scoring the try.

Leinster’s reputation for producing a swashbuckling style of rugby in attack is borne out by the number of tries scored but the breakdown between backs and forwards is pretty harmonious in terms of the figures. Forwards have contributed 52 tries with hooker Rónan Kelleher leading the way with a personal tally of nine, followed by flanker cum number eight Max Deegan on seven, with prop Andrew Porter and openside Scott Penny chipping in with four apiece.

Leinster backs have accumulated 55 tries with three players contributing the lion’s share, or 56 per cent of that total to be precise. Wing Dave Kearney, who is rehabilitating a hamstring injury, leads the way with a dozen including two hat-tricks. Centre Garry Ringrose has 10, also scoring three tries on two occasions, while wing James Lowe is one behind on nine.

In all, 36 players have dotted down in the 24-match winning sequence, 18 forwards and the same number of backs. The frontrow union will be very happy with their contribution of 28 tries; an identical tally to the massed input of the wings. The four scrumhalves, Luke McGrath, Jamison Gibson-Park, Rowan Osborne and Hugh O’Sullivan have each contributed to the tally, while in terms of the Byrne family battle at outhalf, Harry (three) leads Ross (two) in the try-scoring stakes.

On the defensive side of the ledger, Leinster have managed not to concede a try on six occasions, three of those against Munster in two Pro14 semi-finals and the game earlier in the season at Thomond Park. Zebre, Benetton Treviso (Champions Cup) and Lyon (Champions Cup) also failed to register a try.

The team that scored the most tries against Leinster is Ulster, Saturday’s opponents in the Pro 14 final, who amassed six in a 54-42 try-fest at the RDS just before Christmas. Dan McFarland’s team were the only ones to register a four-try bonus point in Leinster’s 24-game winning run. Treviso (twice), Northampton Saints, Glasgow and Munster each managed three against the reigning Pro 14 champions.

Leinster scored the first try of the match in 20 of 24 games, the last try on 16 occasions and only twice did they trail at half-time; to the Glasgow Warriors in last season’s Pro 14 final and against the Ospreys at the Gnoll.

As far as this weekend is concerned the numbers that matter start and finish with those on the scoreboard after 80-minutes and the prospect of claiming what they hope will be the first of two trophies.

[wixfjord]

Interesting to see who Ulster go with in the back three.

Lyttle versus Lowe could be a good match up for us if we can get JL in a bit of space running at him.

Ludik looked uncomfortable defending Van Der Merwe so wouldn't be surprised if he was dropped.

[blockhead]

Lyttle and Stockdale are both deadly with ball in hand but their defense is awful. Check out Edinburghs 3rd try, Lyttle made 3 very weak attempts against 2 different opponents in the lead up to that try.
The one he scored was brilliant though.

[Oldschool]

Murray Kinsella in the42.ie predicting the same Leinster starting 15 that was rumoured on Monday:

15. Jordan Larmour
14. Hugo Keenan
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Robbie Henshaw
11. James Lowe
10. Ross Byrne
9. Jamison Gibson-Park

1. Cian Healy
2. Ronan Kelleher
3. Andrew Porter
4. Devin Toner
5. James Ryan
6. Caelan Doris
7. Josh van der Flier
8. Jack Conan

There's a real feel of the changing of the guard about this team.
No Sexton, ISA, McFadden or Kearney X 2.
No Cronin, Ruddock or Heaslip.
Ok ISA and Heaslip Don't count but...

[Theleinsterlad]

Murray Kinsella in the42.ie predicting the same Leinster starting 15 that was rumoured on Monday:

15. Jordan Larmour
14. Hugo Keenan
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Robbie Henshaw
11. James Lowe
10. Ross Byrne
9. Jamison Gibson-Park

1. Cian Healy
2. Ronan Kelleher
3. Andrew Porter
4. Devin Toner
5. James Ryan
6. Caelan Doris
7. Josh van der Flier
8. Jack Conan

There's a real feel of the changing of the guard about this team.
No Sexton, ISA, McFadden or Kearney X 2.
No Cronin, Ruddock or Heaslip.
Ok ISA and Heaslip Don't count but...

Yeah dev and church are the only two “old guard” in team for a serious final. Great turnover by Leo and stu rebuilding the team with little lowering of the standard the team plays at

[curates_egg]

Only one of the XV is the same as the 2016 final vs Connacht (Ringrose), and one was on the bench (Conan).

Three/four of the likely bench were in the match day squad that day (Sexton, McGrath, Cronin, and Dooley). Furlong and Molony were also in the squad that day.
But still.